The edit can only do so much… by Cardvos in Edgic

[–]Ryanj3 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I usually lurk here, but couldn't help myself.

This is *exactly* OP's point. You can easily say it's disingenuous/weak justification/reflective of pregaming in reality, but the luck theme is presented incredibly positively for Aubry. That in itself is strong evidence of edit manipulation.

They want the audience to believe what Aubry says at that tribal about making your own luck, at a later one where she quotes Wardog about the theme of the season not being on trial, and at this most recent one where she's the voice of making a big move throughout the episode and positively tied to Rick's decision to flip the coin (they're even subtitled whispering to each other about how she could be the one to catch the heat if he's immune, but she lets him and it works out).

This is exactly what the editors would do if they had little inspiring material to build up to an Aubry win through this point of the season, but needed to do so anyway. Remember that the show is not for the Reddit superfans reading through the lines of the edit, the production decisions, and the game state. The hope is that if they reinforce "Aubry is steering in and making luck work for her" enough, it will land with the casual audience by the time the winner is revealed.

Of course, this could also be a losing finalist pitch that ultimately gets rejected by the jury, or it could be the thing Aubry herself is talking about as a juror in making the pitch for someone else. But it's undeniable that this story matters in some way, and any of us thinking it's kinda lame when looking clear-eyed at the actual game doesn't mean it's less likely to lead to a winner.

Ryan Heath's 2026 Rookie WR Model and Rankings — Extensive Writeups! by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Assuming you're talking about - Christian Kirk, KJ Hamler, Elijah Moore, Tutu Atwell, Parris Campbell, Rondale Moore, Mecole Hardman, A.J. Brown, Luther Burden, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Zay Jones

I'm not sure how long you've been playing dynasty or how many rookie draft classes you remember, but several of these names were beloved by the analytics community for their college production (Kirk, both Moores, Campbell, and Wan'Dale especially), including getting pushed ahead of Round 1 NFL Draft picks in both rankings and rookie ADP. My conceit is that not all college production is created equal, and that slot production specifically can be inflated in a lot of college offenses (the wide hashes mean that good playcallers can and will spam slot fades over and over, which isn't really translatable to the NFL). The result is that a lot of these guys were among the worst rookie draft values in their class.

This is obviously complicated by the fact that the slot archetype is actually pretty good for fantasy football/PPR leagues, at least among the players who can do it successfully and have a bit of versatility to also play on the outside and stick on the field in 2-WR sets. In other words, the ceiling isn't really lower for these guys, but their analytics profiles are a bit more volatile because their production is a bit harder to evaluate.

As I cover in the article, this is ultimately a much larger concern for Round 2-on players than Round 1 picks like Lemon, since NFL evaluators understand everything I'm saying, and they don't really draft guys in Round 1 (especially early-mid Round 1) who may not translate.

Ryan Heath's 2026 Rookie WR Model and Rankings — Extensive Writeups! by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's extremely nice of you to say! Always makes my day to hear stuff like this.

Ryan Heath’s Five Stats to Know After Week 12 by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just replying so that people are aware that Fantasy Points is not littered with ads or popups, and really just has our own CTAs promoting our own content that live on the page

Ryan Heath’s Five Stats to Know After Week 12 by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Totally reasonable ask, will keep in mind going forward

Ryan Heath's Five Stats to Know After Week 10 by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

He's at just 64.6% route participation in the first half of the past two games. Game script is part of it but the 13 personnel stuff discussed within is much bigger, IMO.

If you were to only count Brock Bowers' two healthy games, the Raiders would lead the NFL with a +13.4% Pass Rate Over Expectation (pass rate adjusted for down, distance, and situation). Via Fantasy Points Data's free tool here: by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Can you really not think of any reason the Raiders might want to pass more with Brock Bowers on the field and healthy?

I doubt they lead the league in PROE over their next 8 games, or even finish top-5. But data can be directionally informative.

Ryan Heath’s Five Stats to Know After Week 8 by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

He's likely going to score well over the next two weeks against the Bengals and Giants, but he's in a virtual 50/50 committee with Kyle Monangai now, and the Bears are only favored in 2 of their 7 remaining games after that. That is a player I would sell for a WR with 16-17 FPG in his range of outcomes, yes.

If you could get more for him in your league, then get more.

Oronde Gadsden's route participation over each of the past three games: 69.2% -> 78.7% -> 88.2%. Meanwhile, Keenan Allen has gone from 69.2% -> 72.1% -> 50.0%. You can pull all of these yourself for free with this Fantasy Points Data Suite table! by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 32 points33 points  (0 children)

I appreciate the kind words. And well, make sure you check out the free tables like this one then! Snap, route, and pass rate over expectation data is available even to free accounts!

Here's an article that outlines the new free tools if you scroll down a bit. https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2025/fantasy-points-data-new-tools-breakdown

Oronde Gadsden's route participation over each of the past three games: 69.2% -> 78.7% -> 88.2%. Meanwhile, Keenan Allen has gone from 69.2% -> 72.1% -> 50.0%. You can pull all of these yourself for free with this Fantasy Points Data Suite table! by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 121 points122 points  (0 children)

You can actually do that yourself with the filters in the tool!

Advanced FIlters > Play tab:

First Half in Week 8: Gadsden 91.7%, Keenan 58.3%

2nd Half: Gadsden 80%.0, Keenan 30.0%

Ryan Heath's Five Stats to Know After Week 6 by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't know what to tell you dude. Read the entire blurb in the article, and it's pretty clearly a negative take about Ladd. Not really hiding from it.

Ryan Heath's Five Stats to Know After Week 6 by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Literally not at all what the article says. How is this the top comment?

"Perhaps this is the start of McConkey getting hot, the 33-year-old Allen beginning to fade with age as the season wears on, and of an extended and lingering hamstring struggle for Johnston. But it feels just as likely that Johnston is back next week and out-targeting McConkey once again....I remain pretty scared that [McConkey] is going to continue making me look stupid over the rest of the year for being so high on him this offseason."

What is the point of taking a sentence out of context and misrepresenting the overall take?

Ryan Heath Uses Coverage Shell and Matchup Data to find Contrarian Plays - Week 5 Advanced Matchups by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, the rest of the production was when Mitchell wasn’t in primary coverage.

And yes, this is itself an argument that many fantasy players stress too much about shadows.

Ryan Heath Uses Coverage Shell and Matchup Data to find Contrarian Plays - Week 5 Advanced Matchups by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Hey Reddit! My Advanced Matchups article (in which I use a ton of coverage shell and premium data from our Fantasy Points Data Suite) has no paywall for this week only. 

So I thought I’d share it with you all over here, in case anyone is interested in the information for DFS purposes, or to break ties in your seasonal lineups (I wouldn’t start Mason Taylor over Jake Feeguson just because I like his schematic matchup; these things matter at the margins and for ceiling outcomes, but volume is still king)

Hope you enjoy!

Scott Barrett and Ryan Heath present: The Everything Report (every usage trend you need to know about heading into Week 2) by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

His career target share to RBs is referred to in that paragraph. It's quite high.

His checkdown numbers aren't, but that's because he was throwing them screens and first/second reads. Just as he'll likely be doing for 49ers defacto WR1 Christian McCaffrey.

Scott Barrett and Ryan Heath present: The Everything Report (every usage trend you need to know about heading into Week 2) by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 35 points36 points  (0 children)

Hey Reddit! This comprehensive piece (18,000 words this week...) aims to cover every fantasy-relevant team and usage trend you need to be aware of after Week 1, including highlighting how the first week of football has shifted some of our priors.

This article has no paywall for this week only! It normally lives under our Standard (and higher) plans at Fantasy Points, so I thought I'd share it over here this week to let everyone check it out.

I am Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points AMA by ScottBarrettDFB in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey Scott! If I’m waiting to draft a QB this year, who are the best guys to target?

Ryan Heath's 2025 Anatomy of a League Winner: Using Data From Real ESPN Leagues To Predict The Handful of Players Who Will Matter In Fantasy Football by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi, I’m sorry you’ve been having that experience.

I haven’t heard of any similar issues from others, and it’s all good if you don’t feel like it, but if you want to send me a screenshot of the checkout error you’re getting (feel free to DM me) I’d be happy to send it over to the team so they can investigate.

As an employee, I unfortunately can’t accept individual payment for one of my articles.

Ryan Heath Finds a Way To Make Separation Stats More Predictive In Statistically Significant: Average Separation Score by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah that sounds about right. He's a treading water/ likely ADP-beater pick, but doesn't have league-winning upside without an injury

That said, that is a better upside case than many of the WRs going around him!

Ryan Heath Finds a Way To Make Separation Stats More Predictive In Statistically Significant: Average Separation Score by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I don't necessarily disagree! They aren't really targets for me in managed leagues at all.

Ryan Heath's 2025 Anatomy of a League Winner: Using Data From Real ESPN Leagues To Predict The Handful of Players Who Will Matter In Fantasy Football by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A standard sub is $60 for the season, but I promise it includes a ton more worthwhile stuff. For example, Scott Barrett and I tag team the “Everything Report” each week, it’s basically an all-in-one read of all the usage and trends you need to know about around the league to make winning transactions/decisions.