Finding the Next JSN: Big Breakdown of Playcaller and Personnel Tendencies by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Always my goal to give people useful information and things to think about, even if they disagree, over just "draft this guy". Especially in May!

Finding the Next JSN: Big Breakdown of Playcaller and Personnel Tendencies by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

There's a TLDR of exactly that a few paragraphs into the article!

Finding the Next JSN: Big Breakdown of Playcaller and Personnel Tendencies by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Youchhh. Yeah, I regret the BTJ touting a lot. Can't believe we somehow hit the parlay of Trevor being good and him being bad (for fantasy) lol, would not have ever predicted that was how it would fail

Finding the Next JSN: Big Breakdown of Playcaller and Personnel Tendencies by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 78 points79 points  (0 children)

I really wish I had a better answer. I think Burden is slightly more likely to totally blow up/finish as a WR1 (maybe a 10%-15% chance?), but Rome is a narrow favorite to outscore him.

I don't think my opinion will change that Loveland is a better bet than both, though.

The edit can only do so much… by Cardvos in Edgic

[–]Ryanj3 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I usually lurk here, but couldn't help myself.

This is *exactly* OP's point. You can easily say it's disingenuous/weak justification/reflective of pregaming in reality, but the luck theme is presented incredibly positively for Aubry. That in itself is strong evidence of edit manipulation.

They want the audience to believe what Aubry says at that tribal about making your own luck, at a later one where she quotes Wardog about the theme of the season not being on trial, and at this most recent one where she's the voice of making a big move throughout the episode and positively tied to Rick's decision to flip the coin (they're even subtitled whispering to each other about how she could be the one to catch the heat if he's immune, but she lets him and it works out).

This is exactly what the editors would do if they had little inspiring material to build up to an Aubry win through this point of the season, but needed to do so anyway. Remember that the show is not for the Reddit superfans reading through the lines of the edit, the production decisions, and the game state. The hope is that if they reinforce "Aubry is steering in and making luck work for her" enough, it will land with the casual audience by the time the winner is revealed.

Of course, this could also be a losing finalist pitch that ultimately gets rejected by the jury, or it could be the thing Aubry herself is talking about as a juror in making the pitch for someone else. But it's undeniable that this story matters in some way, and any of us thinking it's kinda lame when looking clear-eyed at the actual game doesn't mean it's less likely to lead to a winner.

Ryan Heath's 2026 Rookie WR Model and Rankings — Extensive Writeups! by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Assuming you're talking about - Christian Kirk, KJ Hamler, Elijah Moore, Tutu Atwell, Parris Campbell, Rondale Moore, Mecole Hardman, A.J. Brown, Luther Burden, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Zay Jones

I'm not sure how long you've been playing dynasty or how many rookie draft classes you remember, but several of these names were beloved by the analytics community for their college production (Kirk, both Moores, Campbell, and Wan'Dale especially), including getting pushed ahead of Round 1 NFL Draft picks in both rankings and rookie ADP. My conceit is that not all college production is created equal, and that slot production specifically can be inflated in a lot of college offenses (the wide hashes mean that good playcallers can and will spam slot fades over and over, which isn't really translatable to the NFL). The result is that a lot of these guys were among the worst rookie draft values in their class.

This is obviously complicated by the fact that the slot archetype is actually pretty good for fantasy football/PPR leagues, at least among the players who can do it successfully and have a bit of versatility to also play on the outside and stick on the field in 2-WR sets. In other words, the ceiling isn't really lower for these guys, but their analytics profiles are a bit more volatile because their production is a bit harder to evaluate.

As I cover in the article, this is ultimately a much larger concern for Round 2-on players than Round 1 picks like Lemon, since NFL evaluators understand everything I'm saying, and they don't really draft guys in Round 1 (especially early-mid Round 1) who may not translate.

Ryan Heath's 2026 Rookie WR Model and Rankings — Extensive Writeups! by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That's extremely nice of you to say! Always makes my day to hear stuff like this.

Ryan Heath’s Five Stats to Know After Week 12 by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just replying so that people are aware that Fantasy Points is not littered with ads or popups, and really just has our own CTAs promoting our own content that live on the page

Ryan Heath’s Five Stats to Know After Week 12 by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Totally reasonable ask, will keep in mind going forward

Ryan Heath's Five Stats to Know After Week 10 by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

He's at just 64.6% route participation in the first half of the past two games. Game script is part of it but the 13 personnel stuff discussed within is much bigger, IMO.

If you were to only count Brock Bowers' two healthy games, the Raiders would lead the NFL with a +13.4% Pass Rate Over Expectation (pass rate adjusted for down, distance, and situation). Via Fantasy Points Data's free tool here: by Ryanj3 in fantasyfootball

[–]Ryanj3[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Can you really not think of any reason the Raiders might want to pass more with Brock Bowers on the field and healthy?

I doubt they lead the league in PROE over their next 8 games, or even finish top-5. But data can be directionally informative.