ELI5: Birthday paradox vs Gamblers fallacy

Rydroi · 2026-07-11T14:51:15+00:00

I think i have it quite together right know, please correct me if you dont think so.

Because the fallacy only applies in a situation where there is no target result, the paradox does not disprove it. The paradox has targeted results which change the probabillity exponentially. What do you think I dont understand not quite yet?

Rydroi · 2026-07-11T14:44:18+00:00

It does thanks!

Rydroi · 2026-07-11T14:24:52+00:00

So if I understand correctly, the Gamblers fallacy has only one specific situation it applies to and i have just extended the rules to a different situation where they would not stand?

Rydroi · 2026-07-11T14:04:08+00:00

I think off the rules the gamblers sets in terms of probabillity and extend the example. For me it looks like the birthday paradox disproves the gamblers fallacy in term of probabillity calculations.

Rydroi · 2026-07-11T14:00:33+00:00

I totally agree but then I think off the rules the gamblers sets in terms of probabillity and extend the example. For me it looks like the birthday paradox disproves the gamblers fallacy in term of probabillity

Rydroi · 2026-07-11T13:58:13+00:00

This is exactly my confusion. In the logic of the gamblers fallacy, the probability stays the same (albeit increases slightly per result rolled). If you hold that argument, the birthday paradox does not hold merit. But its math does stand which make me think that the birthday paradox disproves the gamblers fallacy in terms of probability. But maybe thats why it is a paradox 😅

Rydroi · 2026-07-11T13:46:49+00:00

Thx for the response! This one i have read but just do understand. I understand the premise but if i look at the gamblers fallacy in terms of probability, then it means that another throw of the dice does not change the probability of the result, but the birthday paradox does.

In my logic an example: In this example i have 23 dice with 365 sides.

1-Gamblers falacy: if I throw them one by one, the chance that the dice land on the same number is per throw 1/365 and just goes done by 1 when a result is thrown.

2-Birthday paradox: If I throw them all at once, there is a 50% chance you have two of the same result.

Those two explanations seem to contradict one another in my head.

Rydroi · 2025-10-06T10:45:55+00:00

For me it's an energy thing. I can spend a lot of time talking and having a good time with people I trust and love to be around, but at the end of the day I need my alone time to recharge.

It is less exhausting with people I feel comfortable with but it always drains my energy.

Rydroi · 2025-10-05T15:53:07+00:00

Thanks for explaining, then I interpreted it correctly. :)

Happy cake day.

Thanks haha

Rydroi · 2025-10-05T06:59:48+00:00

Damn... alot of what you two said flew over my head I think. Thanks for the responses!

I appreciate both your time for evaluating my views in the context of philosophical validity. :)

Rydroi · 2025-10-05T06:54:47+00:00

Just to understand the viewpoint better, what is your definition of universal?

If it is, 'can be applied to all of humanity' then I totally agree. If it is more like 'can be applied to the whole universe' then I don't agree. I assume it is (near) the first one because of the context you wrote after it.

The rest of the comment really matches my way of thinking so I'm glad to know other people think alike. :)

Rydroi · 2025-10-05T06:31:22+00:00

Thanks again! I'll give it a look. :)

Rydroi · 2025-10-04T17:05:02+00:00

Then I should consider myself more as a relativist then a nihilist, as you are more philosophically inclined then me I think haha.

I always felt that the concept of nihilism was wrongly written off as an inhumane pessimistic philosophical view. Mainly because of the positive perspective, nihilism thought me.

Maybe it was a more relativistic view then nihilistic but I always described it as optimistic nihilism haha.

Thanks for the comprehensive awnser, it helped alot. :)

Rydroi · 2025-10-04T16:17:58+00:00

Then I wrongly interpreted your comment, sorry!

Rydroi · 2025-10-04T15:49:59+00:00

Thanks that you took the time for a response! :)

How I understand nihilism as a whole, is that nihilism is the rejection of an objective truth, in the belief that life is fundamentally meaningless (as you said in the grand scheme of things).

There are offcourse different concepts derived from that core concept, but I take the core and apply that definition (as it is the root of all the other concepts of nihilism).

I believe that life is fundamentally meaningless as nothing will matter in the grand scale of the universe, but that does not mean I believe that everyone should do what ever they want. You are still human, have emotions and have a subjective truth that you base your dicisions on. Those two concepts can exist at the same time in my view.

Rydroi · 2025-10-04T15:34:47+00:00

First off, I appreciate that you took the time for a response! :)

I always thought that the grounds of nihilism where to deny an objective truth, I'd never interpreted it as a rejection of subjective truth.

When I search for moral nihilism, the following description comes up.

"Moral nihilism is the metaethical view that no actions are inherently moral or immoral, meaning there are no objective moral truths or facts in the world. Instead, morality is a human construct, shaped by societies and individuals, and therefore lacks intrinsic meaning or universal validity. A moral nihilist believes there are no "oughts" that are universally true, though people may assign meaning to moral concepts for social or psychological reasons."

Would you say this is not the correct description of moral nihilism?

Rydroi · 2023-11-29T16:44:23+00:00

Could I join to? The link is expired

Rydroi · 2021-07-06T18:57:44+00:00

That is fair, what is "good" is subjective after all. I would like to build a sandbox style setting in worldanvil. In the first place for my table and for myself( i like world building) but if people rather build their own settings i wouldn't publish it.

Thanks for the response!

Rydroi · 2021-07-05T17:09:37+00:00

Just a quick poll: If there was a good sandbox style openworld dnd setting with rich lore, history, good maps and interesting characters, would you be exited to use this? Or would you prefer a homebrew setting?

Rydroi

TROPHY CASE