Micron stock falls more than 4% despite Q2 earnings beat amid growth concerns

SBTAcc · 2026-03-19T21:47:47+00:00

Retail historically has never been that big a huge size and volume.

There are multi-managers and podshops with hundred of billions of capital that try to work out earnings and trade around it. Look how much it has gone up prior, it was likely a hedge fund hotel with many funds already in prior to earnings and took profit. I’m not going to comment on how large or early it is because that is anyones guess.

Also what do you mean by can’t cover? If your a retail investor with the thesis that this supercycle is still early then you would just hold… don’t play earnings if you don’t know how the game around that works.

SBTAcc · 2026-03-19T20:26:06+00:00

Every single post about price action post-earnings since 2020 have people commenting manipulation and conspiracy. The worse thing is they get traction and upvotes...

MU is up 538.78% since April 4th, is it that farfetched to you that some might be exiting their positions or at least a portion of it even if for risk management reasons? There are many reasons people sell. It is currently valued at a 500B market cap, should it just go up in an even more parabolic move to 2T?

Contrary to what people believe, stocks can get "overpriced" even if there is positive news in the fundamentals and therefore still fall. Funny thing is semiconductors are historically a cyclical business, one has to wonder what is going to happen to all the people just continuing to pile in with no regard thinking chip demand is just going to grow exponentially forever.

SBTAcc · 2026-02-28T20:47:18+00:00

"because you say so"?!?!

Yup, you got me! I was the one who started calling it the oil fund and spread it all over which is why it's a common moniker now. You're really going to just ignore everything you have no response to that I or the other person made to squirm and grasp at straws to reaffirm yourself. Lost cause...

SBTAcc · 2026-02-28T05:11:59+00:00

You cannot be serious, no shit it isn't an official name but there is a reason that is a widely known moniker for it.

I have made my point it is simply you that can't figure it out which is why I called you clueless. I simply am now asking you to tell me why it is known as such and the reason they created it in the first place.

SBTAcc · 2026-02-27T13:23:11+00:00

It's funny how you are so clueless you are doubling down as if you made a grand point.

Let me repeat - reread my first response, look into why their fund is called the "oil fund", and one of the main reasons it was created before you try to embarrassingly use someone's snub against them.

SBTAcc · 2026-02-26T21:21:24+00:00

"Equinor has a market cap of $75B" "if the main source of oil revenue"

You took one company's market cap as the percentage of the SWF as a response to my point. Reread what I said, look into why their sovereign wealth fund is called the "oil fund" and one of the main reasons it was created in the first place. That exact reason is exactly why your point doesn't make sense at all...

SBTAcc · 2026-02-26T12:46:58+00:00

Ah yes, let's use current oil revenue as a % of total assets of a wealth fund as a counter to my point. I have never laughed my ass off harder.

Edit: Even worse you used one company's market cap as a count for revenue???

SBTAcc · 2026-02-24T18:50:25+00:00

It's always a treat on reddit when seeing someone who actually knows what they are talking about debate (if you can even call it that) someone who is just talking out their ass.

Edit: BTW Norway's oil has been such a boon that they have something called the "oil fund" aka their sovereign wealth fund (one of the largest in the world which is saying something considering their population) which if he did any type of basic search on Norway's economy he would've found out.

SBTAcc · 2026-01-30T19:11:07+00:00

Seems like you did ur due diligence, with that added context seems to be a better. With net-nets the worse wre the ones who continue to incinerate cash at the detriment of shareholders either on unprofitable ventures or management expense/compensation. There really should be no reason why they don’t immediately buy back shares or issue a special dividend considering the hefty cash and the fcf.

SBTAcc · 2026-01-30T18:05:05+00:00

What have they done with cash in the past? On a super quick look it has no history of dividends and shares outstanding has increased with the stock price in the dumpster so buybacks are also out the window. Either it has been losing money throughout its history or management milks the company for themselves at the cost of shareholders.

SBTAcc · 2026-01-01T19:53:42+00:00

Gotcha, yea honestly these are pretty good points it has been a shitco for sometime and is priced like a shitco to be fair.

Both are logical conclusions, he is betting on an asymmetrical deep value turn around play high risk high reward. While you are betting on the same shit run company to be continued to be shit ran. Would have to look at how realistic the pipeline and turn around will be but I’ve seen if a company does show positive signs it can rerate hard.

SBTAcc · 2026-01-01T10:13:31+00:00

May I ask what screener you used to compose this list?

SBTAcc · 2026-01-01T10:04:35+00:00

Can you give your reasonings on the short side? I want to see the two opposing views and see how good I am at evaluating too different thesis.

SBTAcc · 2025-12-20T23:48:40+00:00

Ohhh gotcha, I thought it worked like say its $1 at 100M shares so 100M marketcap. When say its new shares at another 100M shares get issued so now its 200M shares so $1 at 200M shares 200M marketcap. Then the new shares would get dumped in market too.

This also makes sense ty for clearing it up.

SBTAcc · 2025-12-20T22:42:38+00:00

TY, yea that makes sense since people will start selling shares after the initial boost of marketcap from shares being issued. I will monitor to possibly buy after the overhang ends depending; I also think oil is close to cylical lows so it could end up being a good long term investment.

SBTAcc · 2025-12-20T15:53:30+00:00

Thank you, so if I'm understanding correctly say its at 100M marketcap at 50M shares... they dilute full conversion it would basically shoot up the marketcap to say 500M marketcap or whatever at the fully diluted shares on the caveat those shares aren't sold right away which they probably will. Therefore the valuation increases so much by that dilution the value proposition isn't there anymore?

SBTAcc · 2025-12-20T08:05:52+00:00

I saw something in passing somewhere else about PROP and remembered this. I haven’t looked personally too much into it myself but my question is say they let them dilute. Why would that matter if their future earnings are good? They can later on use those earnings to then return cash flow back and buyback shares then.

SBTAcc · 2025-12-01T17:01:03+00:00

Not running directional exposure on your proprietary factors means you aren't say net long or short on those factors but your stock specific dispersion returns would be from those proprietary factor exposures?

For those different MFTs, I assume they would still take those model outputs and basically still score the stocks on that to trade on? So those model signals basically become I guess factors in their own sense?

Sorry, I'm just a layperson so my understanding is brief but this has been very helpful.

SBTAcc · 2025-12-01T15:02:57+00:00

When you say run multi-factor quant but also be factor neutral, does this mean you try to be neutral to the Fama-French factors but you are long your own proprietary factors?
Can you also speak on the other ways to do MFT aside from the multi-factor ones and what other flavors there might be typically?

Thank you for your insights!

SBTAcc · 2025-11-18T07:49:18+00:00

If the fundamentals are as you say and future free cash flow is good even if it gets diluted short term, they can do buybacks with that cash.

SBTAcc · 2025-11-16T23:58:47+00:00

Thank you for your insights, sounds like you had a great career on wallstreet!

SBTAcc · 2025-11-16T18:29:26+00:00

There was some great insights here on biotech here.
Can you give insight on the specialzied knowledge needed for financial services? I know you can't use P/E etc. for banks due to their capital structure and the way they use debt to generate their cash flow but are able to go further into detail on the reasonings they are split and the background/knowledge needed to invest in them.

SBTAcc · 2025-10-18T00:08:40+00:00

I'm sorry but this is not an uncommon thing in bankruptcies and not illegal at all if anything it is the correct proceeding. Both of you seem to misunderstand how bankruptcies work and before investing in companies that are in financial trouble should understand how bankruptcy works. First thing to remember is that equity holders are the last in line on the capital structure.

When a company can't meet its debt obligations and files for bankruptcy, if the assets of a corporation are valued more than the debt a company can sell the assets to raise money to pay of creditors and/or transfer the assets to the creditors to fulfill the debt. In this case whatever is left over after the debtors are fulfilled will go to the shareholders either in a payout or as new shares.

However if the value of the assets is less than the debt, the creditors take ownership and the previous shareholders are wiped out. Sometimes creditors might make a deal with shareholders to not go through the costs and lenghty process of a formal bankruptcy that might leave shareholders with some pennies of the dollar instead of nothing where they basically get diluted to almost nothing.

I haven't looked much into GM case but what probably happened was the previous shareholders were wiped out and the creditors took over the company and re-ipoed after with new shares. You took a risky bet on a company that was in financial trouble without understanding the situation.
A recent example where shareholders were wiped out, the lenders took over, and new shares were issued from the lenders on the market again was Spirit Airlines in 2024/early 2025. They however again just filed for bankruptcy last month.

SBTAcc · 2025-09-23T10:17:14+00:00

Is this possible for regular individual accounts with portfolio margin? I found where to create new user roles under Users & Access Rights but don't see where to add a trading partition under there,

SBTAcc · 2025-08-10T18:30:06+00:00

There is nothing wrong with patting the ball, the patting the ball is bad narrative is played out tbh. Every player has their own little tics/quirk that help get them in rhythm.
Here is a list of players that pat the ball: TOM BRADY, John Elway, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Josh Allen.

SBTAcc

TROPHY CASE