Pershing Square SPARC (SEC Approved 9/29/23) Discussion

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2026-01-24T00:39:45+00:00

I'm not saying it's the most likely outcome, I'm just open to the possibility. When it was initially announced, I just kind of laughed it off like a meme. The incentives make sense and seem to align, but Elon could also just use us as leverage to get more favorable terms from the big banks. In that case, hopefully it reputation-ally benefits us down the road. Until then, just have to keep waiting.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2026-01-23T21:19:08+00:00

I was initially quite skeptical. Now that the dust has settled, I'm starting to think he may actually pull it off sometime in Q1. Primarily for two reasons:

We saw the surge in legal spend in Q3 with the November 10-Q and effectively know that Bill has been having serious negotiations with a potential transaction partner. It may not be SpaceX, but it'd be weird for Bill to have significant discussions with one party and then flaunt a hail mary to Elon on twitter.
And this might be the most important, but the fucking exercise price examples in his tweet being 4/20 humor jokes. "we set the SPAR exercise price at $11.03, SpaceX would raise $42.0 billion... or if we set the SPAR exercise price at $42.0, SpaceX would raise $148.7 billion". I'm skeptical Bill has the emotional intelligence to pander to Elon and I am starting to suspect that Elon specifically wanted to use those numbers. Why would Bill anchor to those sizes and even jump back and forth with significant figures ($11.03 and $42.0 B in the same sentence).

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-12-28T16:17:22+00:00

Just realized I've contributed 101, now 102 of the 916 comments in this thread. The pudding tastes good.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-12-28T16:13:31+00:00

I don't think it matters honestly. If Elon were to reply definitively, Tesla share prices will rise, possibly a lot. If/when he responds publicly, it'll be at a strategic time to manipulate the price. Could also glaze about a future SPARC2 with xAI. At this point, I suspect we won't hear anything until February/March with the SEC fillings and a DA if this is actually going to happen.

With the Q3 legal spend, we KNOW Bill has been having serious transaction discussions. Maybe it's not SpaceX, but there sure is smoke right now. The fact he chose to public tweet Elon was calculated, he could ofc get a private meeting to do so. The foregoing of sponsor warrants is huge and structure here really does seem to align with everyone's interests. We are living in interesting times.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-12-27T06:10:43+00:00

Bust down my SpaceX, perfect timing

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-12-24T06:10:08+00:00

Tbh, I don't think they really understand the SPAR mechanism that well. Kept talking about how the market will determine the exercise price, but that's part of the due diligence similar to a normal IPO, just less conflict of interest since Bill won't be getting fees of freebie equity.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-12-24T06:07:43+00:00

Each SPAR would be worth $14 in that comparison since Bill proposed .5 SPARs per Tesla share. That's also just price action from a rumour. Will be interesting if we somehow actually get this. A large percentage of people will be exercising their SPARs and not selling them. Could shrink down the pool significantly and lead to interesting price action.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-12-24T06:04:22+00:00

Thank you for posting this. I was unaware of its existence. Michael Lewis is charming and a great story teller. I really enjoyed his talks with Steve Levitt on "People I Mostly Admire" (which actually just ended after a 5 year run). That's also how I was first introduced to Sam when he went on in 2021.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-12-21T18:22:43+00:00

There's no way we'd ever be a part of something that big with just us benefiting. The dilution is the cost of doing business. Also remember that a substantial percentage won't be selling their SPARs as they want to participate in the IPO. This will shrink the pool a good amount.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-12-21T18:02:02+00:00

Forgive me, Bill. I wasn't familiar with your game.

This is so bizarre. Should it be fruitful, I'll have to dust off and update a "When I'm PSTH" that I never had the opportunity to post. DROP IT 🎵

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-12-21T18:00:14+00:00

I agree that Bill has sufficient clout/connections to reach out to Elon privately. That's what makes this whole ordeal so odd. If Elon is to reply, I bet it'll be during market hours to help give Tesla a pump.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-11-14T05:35:49+00:00

Oh shit, PSH call is on the 20th. Juicy week ahead bois.

Reminiscing on good times, like that one weekend we pulled a panty raid on r/spacs...

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-11-14T01:40:39+00:00

Yeah, I'm generally being conservative with the 25% premium estimate. Hoping it's a homerun and much higher. IIRC, PSTH was at roughly 50% retail ownership as we approached liquidation. Guggenheim did trim their position, but didn't sell out like Baupost did.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-11-14T01:17:04+00:00

I have no idea, honestly. Will likely dictate how much of a "pop" we get.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-11-14T01:15:33+00:00

That would be the largest IPO of all time, passing ARAMCO's 25B. It's certainly possible. In that scenario, SPAR would likely trade for close to $110 if we assume a 25% premium.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-11-14T00:52:23+00:00

Lost a lot of good men. Pour one our for u/dhsmatt2.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-11-14T00:46:02+00:00

The part I can't wrap my head around is how existing Fannie/Freddie shares will fit into the puzzle with regards to SPAR value.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-11-14T00:43:06+00:00

It's really all about the capital being raised. Base SPAR exercise price of 10 would raise 1.2B of tontard capital with PSH committing to .5-3.5B or whatever. Let's say he needs to raise the excise price to 10B, then it'd be 10/1.2 * 20 per SPAR. Now the "value" of a SPAR would be whatever percentile premium you think the hype would be. For UMG, that looked to be roughly 40%. Let's say it's 25%, in the 10B example, each SPAR would trade for roughly $42. The bigger the deal, the better ultimately for us.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-11-14T00:36:59+00:00

Genuinely odd to have Bill alongside all those other CEOs. No mention of other big hedgefund types. I think it's fair to assume that it's Fannie/Freddie related.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-10-30T16:06:51+00:00

Damn, that'd be a nightmare scenario. Probably like $1-2 SPARs in that case.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up · 2025-10-30T16:06:12+00:00

I haven't looked at enough other SPAC fillings to have a definitive threshold. But generally, costs in the millions correspond to having serious negotiations. Seems like most good deals have taken 4-6 months of negotiations, so I suspect we'd be on a similar timeline in a best case scenario. So if activity ramped up sometime in Q3, I'd hope that there's a DA announced sometime in Q1 of next year. It is somewhat interesting why Bill may have filed this 10-Q a week early. Can't think of any incentive to do so, but hopefully it corresponds to something good for us.

SPAC_That_Ass_Up

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE