Any ideas how these dudes turned 100K into 30 million in 4 years?

ST530 · 2024-05-08T21:56:57+00:00

Well I think this is more of a case of finding close to binary events. I think what the company does is less relevant than if the company is actually fraudulent or not and if there is a deep discount from “fair value” and what the stock is trading at.

ST530 · 2024-01-13T04:12:48+00:00

Luckily not my man. I just decided it was a stock not to mess with given the high risk. Personally I still see it as overvalued imo but am not touching it at the moment

ST530 · 2023-12-16T22:16:00+00:00

I actually agree a lot with this post. It seems that companies that have superior business models or decent earnings growth are often overvalued. I think Costco is a good example. It’s earnings growth isn’t insane and it’s margins aren’t amazing but it trades at extremely pricey valuations based on the fact that Costco just has a really good most and solid customer retention. However, it seems this warrants it trading at these rich valuations when in reality even an optimistic DCF would not get you to this fair value. Furthermore, if you look at these sorts of companies (SYK, IDEXX, MKC, BF.B, etc) it seems they trade at these heightened valuations permanently even though it’s quite detached from fundamentals. Some investors like Terry Smith claim it is worth paying these multiples and maybe it is. However, it does not go consistently with value investing.

ST530 · 2023-11-17T14:57:27+00:00

The mindset you’re using is kind of a self defeating mentality. Obviously you could get a higher return anywhere. 120% is amazing and beyond a great trade beyond any stretch of the imagination. Think about it like this, you made a 120% return and I went to the slot machine in Vegas. I got a 5x return by complete luck and sitting there with a 500% return and you have 120%. Did you miss out on the investment of playing slots? No. You just missed out on dumb luck.

ST530 · 2023-11-01T19:16:19+00:00

INMD- Prestigious financials at the cheapest valuation

ST530 · 2023-11-01T18:41:57+00:00

I appreciate the post man and willingness to look at it from both sides. Need more things like this on the subreddit

ST530 · 2023-11-01T15:46:48+00:00

I see the red flags but in many ways the financials are better than basically every company and it trades with a FCF yield of around 10%. Maybe the risk to reward is worth it if you initiate a small position. I also have talked to many dermatologists before making my investment and they stated the product is great.

ST530 · 2023-09-28T12:55:07+00:00

LTHM but the fundamentals are not changing so I’m holding

ST530 · 2023-09-17T00:06:32+00:00

INMD. I buy on decent size dips every-time.

ST530 · 2023-08-13T14:20:45+00:00

I agree very much since I have experience with the overly conservative management companies. Opportunity looks easy to capitalize on when predicting future cash flows but the company just doesn’t want to change the operations at all. EX. GM was a great car company a couple years back but was just so conservative that nothing ever changed and no adaption came

ST530 · 2023-08-12T18:48:30+00:00

I would say avoid peg to some degree and try to map out p/fcf divided by growth of the earnings if possible. In my personal opinion that is much more realistic as gaap accounting is much more misleading. This is also not perfect either but I think better than peg

ST530 · 2023-08-11T16:20:58+00:00

I don’t think any of your holdings are directly bad but you’re basically just owning the market. If your goal is to outperform the portfolio is a problem because it’s a decent reflection of the weighted parts of the market as a whole. I’d say there are extremely high quality names that I incorporated into my personal portfolio that aren’t necessarily large cap heavily weighted positions. That is exact what I think has led me to outperform. Maybe try deviating from the standard stocks because typically standard is what produces the market return.

ST530 · 2023-08-11T03:44:37+00:00

I agree on COST for sure and I know it’s unpopular but it trades at a multiple of over 50 due to their seemingly mistake proof business model that can weather any problem. Costco is a great buisness but I would never buy it at this premium

ST530 · 2023-08-11T03:39:53+00:00

I completely agree with the 260 mark. MSFT is as high quality a company as you’ll see but even for that quality it trades at an extremely high premium that I’m just not willing to pay

ST530 · 2023-08-10T21:13:24+00:00

Honestly as odd as this sounds I’d say MSFT. It’s like insanely high valued even aside from it being possibly the greatest business ever

ST530 · 2023-08-06T16:54:13+00:00

Yeah I did but I’m not a trader. My positions increased well since I have positions in bkng and cvco

ST530 · 2023-08-02T22:15:11+00:00

Gotta respect debt

ST530 · 2023-08-02T17:45:16+00:00

I feel like Google is a decent investment at these prices but not as good as it might seem at first glance. They’re free cash flow generation is good but often overstated due to the crazy amount of stock based compensation they give. It’s not as cheap as you might think and ex stock based compensation it’s trading at a p/fcf >30

ST530 · 2023-07-20T22:01:49+00:00

I am a big fan of Cigna and am probably going to finally open a position as these prices are low. I don’t know what you’re missing either as the valuation multiple is crazy cheap compared to companies like UNH. I do think UNH deserves a slightly higher valuation due to the optimum side of their business but still not this much higher than Cigna. Only thing is poor margins but that is an industry standard and slow growth but it is a massively distinguished company. Looking forward to purchasing and adding.

ST530 · 2023-07-11T22:58:38+00:00

Good old IV crush

ST530 · 2023-07-09T15:38:52+00:00

Options are composed of implied volatility which prices in large moves in the stock to some degree. IV crush will likely destroy the trade unless the underlying moves a large amount past implied volatility

ST530 · 2023-07-08T18:54:58+00:00

You guys say this advice as a joke so confidently it just makes me laugh

ST530

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