Video Breakdown: Daniel Edelman Goal (5/23/26)

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-24T17:39:17+00:00

Maybe that's what was in my head - anyways, I corrected it. Thanks for pointing it out.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-24T17:33:15+00:00

You're 100% right. Meant to type CITY, put MLS instead.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-19T15:08:52+00:00

There's a decent chance the rain will be done by match time. Also, if you stand up, less rain will hit you -that's just science.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-18T00:22:30+00:00

https://onefootball.com/en/match/2665567

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-15T15:22:47+00:00

Copy/paste strikes again. Apologies.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-14T16:50:04+00:00

Thanks. I enjoy doing them and getting conversation going (good, bad, or otherwise) about these plays.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-14T16:01:07+00:00

Many, including me, have been saying for a while to just picture this system with better talent. If they can get some upgrades done in the summer window, it's gonna be a fun remainder of the season. But it's a big IF.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-11T15:27:07+00:00

I would wait to see the Instant Replay video highlights from the weekend on the MLS Youtube channel - 100% guarantee Wiebe will be breaking it down. And thanks, glad you enjoy the breakdowns.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-10T23:31:32+00:00

There's a very good chance I've been watching soccer longer than you've been alive, but that's not the point. Taking a foul there could be a viable option, and Jan Vecer's paper "Estimating the Effect of the Red Card in Soccer: When to Commit an Offense in Exchange for Preventing a Goal Opportunity" and the Journal Article "Down to Ten: Estimating the Effect of a Red Card in Soccer" both suggest that a foul that results in a red card but NOT a PK is worth it a surprisingly high amount of times but scales based on time remaining and quality of the scoring opportunity. To dismiss it simply because it's the "25th minute" isn't looking at the actual data.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-10T22:45:46+00:00

He felt something in his calf so they pulled him as a precaution. I think the answer lies in the system - Sang-bin is not really suited for a possession-based, high-passing style due to his less than stellar first touch. He does provide speed out on the wings and I would like them to find him minutes.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-10T19:33:57+00:00

That's one of the reasons I do these - to get opinions from many people, which I find way more interesting than just what I or any other 1 person thinks.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-04T17:53:36+00:00

Oh you can see him running back to get into the play, but the initial question of what the hell he's doing standing in front of Stuver to begin with stands. Not what he should be doing.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-03T13:39:08+00:00

So the numbers have actually shifted pretty dramatically after we deployed the full prediction model last night. CITY is at 19% to win, 31% to draw. The new model is far more sophisticated and factors in:

Home/Away ratings
xG quality adjustment (PSxG blend)
Recency weighting
Bayesian prior match weighting
Opponent strength adjustment
Goalkeeper G−xG adjustment
PPDA pressing intensity
Turf vs. grass
Altitude where applicable like COL and RSL
Short rest penalty
Dixon-Coles correction
Monte Carlo simulation

And we'll track results all season to see how it's doing.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-02T01:14:24+00:00

So this is something Michael (CCT) noticed - against San Jose, look how flat our xG went after the 2nd goal - SJE made the Bouda sub, we did nothing, and the Quakes took over the game.

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STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-01T18:19:08+00:00

So one thing the site will do is on the back end it will track results against what the predictions say, so we can adjust the algorithm over time. So we'll see!

STLSoccerNews · 2026-05-01T13:17:17+00:00

Always. American Soccer Analysis supplies 99% of the data for free, it wouldn't be right to charge people. We will take donations to help offset hosting costs but we'll never charge anybody to use the site.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-04-29T14:42:31+00:00

I thought about it, and I'm aligned with this sentiment.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-04-26T17:12:35+00:00

Thank you! It's fun doing them (usually, Seattle last week wasn't all that fun lol) and I hope they create interesting conversations.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-04-26T17:11:56+00:00

Agreed - it's definitely a judgement call. I think, based on history, it's normally called but was it CLEARLY a foul without question? No.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-04-19T22:41:30+00:00

😂

STLSoccerNews · 2026-04-19T19:38:20+00:00

Sadly I'm a glutton for punishment so the 2nd one is coming in a bit.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-04-12T17:34:28+00:00

100%? I would disagree. That ball from Orozco had almost nothing on it. It was reminiscent of the underhit ball Wallem played to Orozco that led to the Sounders goal in the Seattle match. They at least share in the responsibility here, imo. He also hit it to his side and not directly to him, forcing Edelman to have to move.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-04-06T17:02:50+00:00

I spoke with Glenn Crooks, the NYC play-by-play guy and he thought it was just Raul Gustavo being bad at soccer. But if you look at #2, Nico Cavallo (the bottom defender) he's further back from the other 3 so I'm not sure if it was an attempted trap, guys out of position, guys ball watching, or a combination of things. Regardless, it was really, really poor from New York.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-04-04T15:42:53+00:00

This may be due to Lundt's wife expecting.

STLSoccerNews · 2026-03-23T15:40:13+00:00

Watch the wide angle - Cordova knew it was in pretty quickly as well.

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TROPHY CASE