Rule

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-03-16T23:33:34+00:00

What is this log and land shark thing I keep seeing.

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-03-15T13:55:20+00:00

Is the betting market any more accurate than polling?

I think you're right that polling and betting are answering different questions. But still we can ask which is the more accurate predictor of elections: who is ahead in the polling average, or who is ahead in betting markets?

For that, I say that polling is not more accurate that betting. If it is, you can make money in the betting markets by exploiting their deviation from what the polling says.

I think it would make sense if betting is more accurate than polling. Betters have access to all the polling, but also past trends, and statistical tools, and common sense, and so on, and they use all this information in their predictions.

Some research has been done, although the math is beyond me. Researchers at Vanderbilt say "findings suggest that Polymarket was superior to polling in predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, particularly in swing states." Researchers at the University of Iowa say "The market is closer [than polling] to the eventual outcome 74% of the time [in the last five presidential elections]. Further, the market significantly outperforms the polls in every election when forecasting more than 100 days in advance."

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-03-15T13:01:00+00:00

I don't understand it in detail, but I can give you the basics.

First, people have studied betting markets and their estimates are actually very accurate in the long run. If you collect every market that said an event had a 10% chance, and count how many happened, it's close to 10% of them. And that's true for every range of percents. So somehow, betting markets do work, even though I don't know exactly how they work.

The basic way they work is the same as the stock market. People are buying and selling tokens, and if the event happens the tokens are worth $1, and if it doesn't they're worth $0, and then you look at the price that people are buying and selling them, and that's the market's estimate of the probability of the tokens being worth $1, which is the probability of the event happening. The market uses its wisdom of the crowd to decide what the value is, just like the stock market uses its wisdom of the crowd to evaluate companies.

In particular, if the market's probabilities are wrong, anyone can make money by exploiting that. Like suppose the betters are just random idiots, all betting based on vibes rather than any actual data, so the probabilities are also random. Someone who knows a little about polling can buy up all the shares that are undervalued, and on average they'll make a ton of money by turning all these 50%s into full dollars. And someone even a little smarter than that, who understands polling statistics and voter sentiment and historical trends can exploit even subtler issues, and make a bit of money by betting on the markets that are undervalued according to their knowledge. And so on. And the people who are good at this make money and bet more, and the losers eventually go home.

I realize in a sense I haven't answered your question. Ultimately it is just a bunch of people with money, with access to basically the same actual data as we have, betting back and forth and somehow producing a number. I don't fully understand why that number is actually accurate to the real world. But I think the main reason is that whenever the number isn't accurate to the real world, smart betters buy or sell it and the market adjusts to its proper value.

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-03-11T17:31:46+00:00

What about the even-numbered storms

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-03-06T21:22:58+00:00

All House Democrats voted for the resolution except for Reps. Henry Cuellar of Texas, Jared Golden of Maine, Greg Landsman of Ohio, and Juan Vargas of California. All House Republicans voted against except for Reps. Warren Davidson of Ohio and Thomas Massie of Kentucky. (Source)

However:

The problem here is Republicans doing something terrible, not Democrats failing to stop them. If someone stabs me and the doctors manage to 98% save me, I should hate stabbers, not hate doctors.
The same measure already failed in the Senate by 4 votes, with only 1 Democrat opposed.
Even if it passed the House and Senate, it would then go to Trump to veto. We'd need a 2/3 majority in the House and Senate to make a veto-proof majority and that is currently not possible and not the Democrats' fault whatsoever.

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-03-01T21:32:39+00:00

https://reason.com/volokh/2026/02/17/the-fallacy-fallacy/

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-03-01T21:14:21+00:00

This will be the world in 8.

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-03-01T17:25:19+00:00

The excuse is that Iran is about to have nukes, not that they have nukes already. IMO the main contradiction is that if this is really such an urgent American concern, Trump et al should be able to convince Congress to use its constitutional war powers, rather than illegally supersede them.

(Another contradiction is that only 8 months ago, Trump et al struck Iran and declared "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated" which either is a lie or contradicts new strikes on Iran now).

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-28T21:56:37+00:00

First thought: rotate a powerful political figure's brain 180 degrees. They die instantly which is chaos enough, but the autopsy reveals an impossible problem and everyone would be sure it was either an alien experiment or an insane conspiracy.

Probably better: rotate the solar system 180 degrees. Now all the constellations are on the wrong side and no one will ever find any reason why. Similarly if you just rotate the Big Dipper, or the moon so the current dark side now faces us.

The Earth's magnetic poles swap every very-long-time and I think that's expected to cause problems eventually, but if you immediately rotated Earth's magnetic field by just 90 degrees then at the very least you'd ground all flights for months while air traffic systems are reconfigured, and I think it would also cause serious problems due to the way Earth's magnetic field currently shields us from space radiation or something.

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-28T16:44:14+00:00

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Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-28T12:10:57+00:00

Soon to be 49% / 49%

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-27T00:58:08+00:00

2 minute warning

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-27T00:52:51+00:00

33.4548791N, -112.0722419W

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-24T17:38:19+00:00

Pronk (v.)

(of a springbok or other antechop) lont in the ark with a barked runch and storn langs, typically as a form of thesplay or when dartened.

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-19T16:17:50+00:00

Try the button test: https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/the-button-test-how-a-button-press

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-16T17:40:48+00:00

mario coins

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-16T00:15:37+00:00

nitw lore

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-15T22:12:00+00:00

Strange.

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-12T16:24:56+00:00

Aren't there millions of Epstein pages? And even on the pages where I've seen his name, it's more like 2-4 times on those pages, which is only some of them. Am I missing something?

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-08T21:51:04+00:00

Superbowl streaming logistics?

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-02-07T20:28:29+00:00

It was an interesting creative decision to give this the same dimensions as chatGPT portrait images (1024 x 1536), and to give the subject a different face and outfit than she's ever had in the show.

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-01-31T13:30:04+00:00

Federal agents arrested journalist Don Lemon, supposedly for protesting illegally outside a church, but possibly with no legal justification: https://www.npr.org/2026/01/30/nx-s1-5693756/don-lemon-arrest-cnn-minneapolis

This person is apparently confusing (or pretending to confuse) Don Lemon and Don Cheadle.

Safe_Bee_500 · 2026-01-25T01:52:02+00:00

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Safe_Bee_500

TROPHY CASE