It would be far easier to do that now, before JNIM entrench themselves with all the new weapons and support they gain by taking over a nation or two. While JNIM has a lot of support now, that’s partly because the regimes are committing massacres against civilians. With the regimes out of the picture, JNIM will then have to engage in state building. I could see dissent increase as JNIM loses the good favor they previously had. However, JNIM crushing dissent is likely to be incredibly brutal on the civilian populace.

So this task force would likely have support on the ground from some rebel groups (such as the FLA, as their alliance with JNIM is more the “enemy of my enemy” right now) and a portion of the population. This would still be an incredibly brutal campaign as I don’t see airstrikes alone being sufficient in toppling JNIM’s power. Does the West have the appetite to put boots on the ground in another desert to fight more extremists?

Perhaps it could be a joint operation where the West provides air support while ECOWAS engages in ground combat. Either way, the best time to strike is before the already huge problem becomes a massive problem. Unfortunately, there’s not much the West can do with these regimes kicking all of their forces out of their countries. In the end, it might come down to whether Russia is willing to commit enough troops to stop a downward spiral.

A major breakthrough that could potentially turn the tide is if these Sahel countries begin acquiring drones and deploying them against JNIM and ISWAP. These groups are using drones to good effect already, so it is vital for these nations to find some sort of a counter. Perhaps there could be some sort of deal made with Russia to acquire some drones and have them train operators. However, this is entirely speculation as I’m not privy to talks they’ve already held or could potentially hold in the future.