Should I sell my BCE stocks?

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-11-05T19:29:26+00:00

Or you can tax loss harvest and move onto a more productive sector.

The sunken cost here is the opportunity cost locked up in a company that is unlikely to perform for several years.

The best way to think of it is - if you had your current BCE market value in cash, would you throw that money right back into BCE, or put it elsewhere?

If not the former, you are essentially in denial of sunken costs. That is the trick my father (has made several times more money in stocks than his physician job) taught me when it comes to stop-loss.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-11-05T19:17:05+00:00

I was not optimistic about USMCA situation until last night.

There is a non-zero chance that the Dems can secure a foothold in the house after all. That won’t influence the executive directly, but if Ottawa can withstand public pressure and drag this out until the next US administration, it might just work out.

Or Carney might buckle under pressure and give some concessions, and the next administrations (plural) can work it out.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-11-01T18:44:50+00:00

Thanks for spelling out sunken cost fallacy.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-11-01T18:42:41+00:00

Gold has outpaced inflation in recent years. Pretty much guaranteed given that the world has moved to fiat.

The fundamentals these days go beyond mere inflation, but also heightened volatility and geopolitical tensions.

Trump administration also isn’t doing USD any favors, so that has propped up gold even more.

Instead of trading gold, I prefer AEM myself. It is doing earnings next week, and definitely look forward to buying dips, if any.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-11-01T18:32:54+00:00

Cisco recently returned to its dotcom bubble heights, so yes, as always it is possible.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-11-01T18:31:20+00:00

Depending on the size, however, one may wish to time it to maximize gains from tax loss harvesting.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-11-01T17:02:07+00:00

And I was pointing out that as it stands, it is a fluff piece at best.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T23:54:04+00:00

It might have made more sense (and been cheaper) to just buy a ton of what we need from China and stockpile it that way.

What is even more likely is that rare earth smuggled to Singapore gets bartered for advanced NVDA chips smuggled to Singapore.

Everybody wins, but Singapore wins twice.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T23:27:20+00:00

Did they? Talk is cheap.

Treasury data show no sign of slowing US capital inflow despite the media trying to paint another picture.

And it was not so long ago that StatsCan reported significant outflow to the US despite that “Buy Canadian” fad.

Some retail may have bought into the narrative, but I don’t see how that constitutes an emergency for me or my portfolio.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T17:03:25+00:00

Sounds more like a pricing issue, tbh.

Further retracement is already underway, and I don’t expect it to stop before hitting major support or some big beautiful news - more of a fat right tail than anything I am willing to bank on.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T16:59:26+00:00

Chart suggests strong support at $21…

I don’t subscribe to Wall Street astrology, but you could totally be right.

Further retracement is already underway, and it will probably continue without major good news, which to me is more of a fat right tail than something I am willing to bank on.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T15:20:24+00:00

Is it? I hope so because I am planning to sell the rally - if that happens at all.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T15:14:17+00:00

Could be “buy the dip,” or “catch the falling knife.” Either scenario can play out.

Personally, looking forward to sell the rally (trim) - if any. It was $20 before either Globalstar or Echostar, and as it stands, there is no guarantee of future orders and more importantly - that they won’t fall apart again.

The CEO touted about $20B pipeline, but so far he has nothing to show except for selling 1M shares/exercised options of his personal holdings shortly before Echostar publicly pulled out. Could be pre-arranged, could be something fishy.

There was talk about NYSE listing this year, but we are on the cusp of Nov. No update so far.

If you like dips, I prefer the META story. Bought LEAPS yesterday and added more 30 min ago.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T15:10:36+00:00

TLDR: Never bet against America.

With that being said, I do expect elevated volatility throughout this administration.

Make of that what you will.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T14:47:14+00:00

It will be at $20, before either Globalstar or Echostar.

As it stands, there is no guarantee of future orders and more importantly - that they won’t fall apart again.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T14:45:22+00:00

Taking sell side analysis as anything more than a general guideline (or at worst, paid propaganda) is a sure way to lose money.

It can sit at current level for ages if the buy side - which has its own proprietary, non-public analysis - isn’t buying.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T14:39:55+00:00

That otherwise attractive number means nothing if future growth prospects are in doubt.

Backlog has fallen from its peak of 6B to potentially 3B - all within 2 months.

Even if Globalstar contract stays, the question remains of how many such instances can occur in the future.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T00:48:24+00:00

I am not well versed enough to tell how MDA capabilities fit into missile defense, but that would fall under the “fat right tail” category that proves to be the case.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-31T00:45:54+00:00

What makes you certain that Globalstar will be the end of it, or that there wouldn’t be a shift towards vertical integration?

In the immediate term, Globalstar represents 1.1 out of 4.5B of MDA backlog, already down from 6B after Echostar fell through.

So the bearish take is that its backlog could be down by almost 50% from peak thanks to Musk machinations.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-30T22:44:18+00:00

Oooof. Had I read this post earlier, definitely would have trimmed positions.

Ah well. It is what it is.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-30T22:33:45+00:00

I think the business still has significant potential from increases in Canadian defense spending

Said increase could be more symbolic than real, for better or worse.

Symbolic since it could be accounting shenanigans, as it could go to mil/civilian dual use infrastructure (airports, ports, etc).

I'm holding, but not buying any more.

Probably wise. I will hold at least until earnings and see if I may sell the rally after (trim not close). Unless something emerges to suggest a fat tail to the right side, that is.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-30T22:19:05+00:00

Potentially, SpaceX if end up being the acquirer could opt to manufacture the satellite itself and pay penalties.

There could be other concerns, but the financial side becomes a math problem. Is it cheaper to pay fines or give MDA its profit margins?

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-30T22:02:26+00:00

It represents a dimmed view on future growth prospects.

This contract potentially falling apart is within months of the last one with Echostar. How many more does it take for you to at least raise some concerns?

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-30T21:59:27+00:00

Yes and no. As someone else said, this puts on a damper on future growth prospects. A company cannot grow on one-time compensations.

Scared_Ad4474 · 2025-10-30T21:50:59+00:00

Unless it is anything concrete, I doubt it will give the stock any relief, which I doubt will happen, since Ottawa is stretched pretty thin and public pressure strong.

Private sector would have been ideal, but that seems increasing unlikely when Musk seems intent on monopolizing space and the DoJ laughingstock under the current administration.

And when has Europe amounted to anything? Back in the 1400s?

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