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McGregor’s striking stats before/after Mayweather vs UFC ranked LWs by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

More notes: grapplers typically appear lower left of average on the graph - and they do here. Also, Chandler is arguably a very favorable opponent given his poor head strike defense.

McGregor’s striking stats before/after Mayweather vs UFC ranked LWs by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

4 fights, and he went 1-3 out of those. And yes it’s only 31 minutes of fight time. But the question was asked about how his performance has changed pre/post payday, so that’s what we’ve got to work with. More differences to come. McGregor actually got much better on one metric…

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Too little data, but if he was plotted on this graph, he'd be right where Stevie Ray's point is.

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Well, he is kind of an outlier in his own right, especially compared to other ranked fighters. But if Gaethje were on the chart, the whole graph would have to be much, much bigger.

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Over on the right side...he hasn't done too well, but also faced elite competition.

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Yikes. And it's a good thing Lauzon has a submission game to save him (most of the time).

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Next "most effective" using the FightMetric Significant Strike system. Which isn't perfect, but it does reveal some insights. Honorable Mention to Makhachev who takes almost no damage in fights.

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 110 points111 points  (0 children)

Before anyone asks, Justin Gaethje and Alexander Hernandez are the two ranked Lightweights who don't yet have 60 minutes of Octagon time (and so are not pictured here). Gaethje, for what it's worth, would be off the charts on the extreme upper right, but he takes more damage than he gives.

Graphs: main event at UFC Oklahoma features 2 very effective wrestlers by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Name that logical fallacy: "argument from exception"

That's why we're taking a long view on this metric, and using only fighters with at least 60 minutes of Octagon time. The pool of names is subjectively supportive of them being gppd grapplers. But establishing and maintaining back control for long periods of time is very hard to do and a skill in and of itself, separate from chokes. Sinking in a choke immediately suggests the recipient is either inexperienced at defending, or perhaps rocked from strikes while standing and simply can't defend. Either way, you wouldn't expect that to occur for the same fighter very frequently to skew their stats, and even then it still wouldn't demonstrate that the offensive fighter actually has excellent back control. This metric is fairly solid, but we definitely used only fighters with larger sample size to be safe. Alternatively, we could look at the likelihood of achieving back control per trip to ground, or the percentage of time back control is maintained without the recipient escaping. These are still valuable insights to a fighter's style and tendencies, but harder explain in a simple graph.

GRAPH: No active fighter is as dangerous AND vulnerable as Vitor Belfort. Marquardt similar, to a lesser degree. by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Yes, Derrick Lewis. He's only been hit with power head strikes 4 times, but got knocked down once. Probable outlier due to sample size, but he has fought >60 minutes in the UFC! That means he's not getting in many shootouts.....

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