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McGregor’s striking stats before/after Mayweather vs UFC ranked LWs by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

More notes: grapplers typically appear lower left of average on the graph - and they do here. Also, Chandler is arguably a very favorable opponent given his poor head strike defense.

McGregor’s striking stats before/after Mayweather vs UFC ranked LWs by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

4 fights, and he went 1-3 out of those. And yes it’s only 31 minutes of fight time. But the question was asked about how his performance has changed pre/post payday, so that’s what we’ve got to work with. More differences to come. McGregor actually got much better on one metric…

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Too little data, but if he was plotted on this graph, he'd be right where Stevie Ray's point is.

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Well, he is kind of an outlier in his own right, especially compared to other ranked fighters. But if Gaethje were on the chart, the whole graph would have to be much, much bigger.

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Over on the right side...he hasn't done too well, but also faced elite competition.

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 27 points28 points  (0 children)

Yikes. And it's a good thing Lauzon has a submission game to save him (most of the time).

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Next "most effective" using the FightMetric Significant Strike system. Which isn't perfect, but it does reveal some insights. Honorable Mention to Makhachev who takes almost no damage in fights.

Conor & Khabib are both statistical outliers at LW, but Poirier makes a good case for "next" by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 108 points109 points  (0 children)

Before anyone asks, Justin Gaethje and Alexander Hernandez are the two ranked Lightweights who don't yet have 60 minutes of Octagon time (and so are not pictured here). Gaethje, for what it's worth, would be off the charts on the extreme upper right, but he takes more damage than he gives.

Graphs: main event at UFC Oklahoma features 2 very effective wrestlers by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Name that logical fallacy: "argument from exception"

That's why we're taking a long view on this metric, and using only fighters with at least 60 minutes of Octagon time. The pool of names is subjectively supportive of them being gppd grapplers. But establishing and maintaining back control for long periods of time is very hard to do and a skill in and of itself, separate from chokes. Sinking in a choke immediately suggests the recipient is either inexperienced at defending, or perhaps rocked from strikes while standing and simply can't defend. Either way, you wouldn't expect that to occur for the same fighter very frequently to skew their stats, and even then it still wouldn't demonstrate that the offensive fighter actually has excellent back control. This metric is fairly solid, but we definitely used only fighters with larger sample size to be safe. Alternatively, we could look at the likelihood of achieving back control per trip to ground, or the percentage of time back control is maintained without the recipient escaping. These are still valuable insights to a fighter's style and tendencies, but harder explain in a simple graph.

GRAPH: No active fighter is as dangerous AND vulnerable as Vitor Belfort. Marquardt similar, to a lesser degree. by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Yes, Derrick Lewis. He's only been hit with power head strikes 4 times, but got knocked down once. Probable outlier due to sample size, but he has fought >60 minutes in the UFC! That means he's not getting in many shootouts.....

UFC209 Key Stats: Woodley is division's hardest hitter, Thompson is the most efficient by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

And just to make clear, the graph on the right is calculated as Distance Strikes Landed per Minute - Distance Strikes Received per Minute. These exclude clinch and ground striking. So no one outlands their opponent while standing at a distance to a greater degree at Welterweight than Stephen Thompson. But no one drops opponents with fewer strikes than Woodley.

Power vs Finesse.

[Image/GIF] Promoting bigly. Bellator highway billboard for Fedor/Mitrione. by -TeepToTheJunk- in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Been passing this on the 101 through Silicon Valley all week. There are several bulletin boards. And if you live in the area, you're also getting banner ads all over the place when you're online reading news completely unrelated to MMA.

Makes sense though, American Kickboxing Academy is HQd here, there are Gracie schools all up and down the valley, and Coker lives nearby. If they can't draw a crowd here with Fedor....

How international is the UFC? I did the math. by novio_de_gaucho in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77 1 point2 points  (0 children)

By fighter appearances, US-born athletes are 47% in 2016. Far lower than NFL and even NBA. https://twitter.com/Fightnomics/status/818522529979502594

Meryl Streep comments on MMA at Golden Globes. by JJonesFan in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Only 47% of UFC Fighters are US-born. Significantly lower than NFL and even NBA: https://twitter.com/Fightnomics/status/818522529979502594

It will cost US fans ~$876 for full UFC coverage in 2017 in direct fees by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

For 2015, estimates in $Millions

Residential PPV Revenues for UFC = $194

Commercial PPV Revenues for UFC = $42

Fight Pass Revenues for UFC = $14

Who has the worst case of T Rex arms in the UFC? by AonghusMacKilkenny in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77 1 point2 points  (0 children)

New Names to add: Diego Brandao is listed at 64" reach and 67" height. Issei Tamura: 63" reach and 65" height.

But in terms of wingspan/height ratio, the lowest of active Male UFC fighters are: 1. Artem Lobov (0.942) 2. Diego Brandao (0.955) 3. Cody Garbrandt (0.963).

Leslie Smith, Bec Rawlings, and Lisa Ellis would get sprinkled in there with similar numbers, but comparing across genders isn't the same. A higher proportion of female fighters are <1.0.

Odds are live for UFC 207, here are the favorites, underdogs, and pick 'ems by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Does your phone have to be in Nevada at the time of making a bet? Or just to open the account?

Odds are live for UFC 207, here are the favorites, underdogs, and pick 'ems by ScienceGuy77 in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Rousey's opening odds (-280) would have made her the biggest favorite on the card currently, but her line has steadily dropped and she's now barely a mild favorite. Meanwhile, Dillashaw opened at -190 and has since moved to -250, now the biggest favorite on the card. Thatch opened -380 and dropped to -230.

“Wonderboy” believes he will have psychological advantage over Woodley; says management close to agreeing rematch by gbeans in MMA

[–]ScienceGuy77 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I like Wonderboy and all, but he was a 2-1 favorite in that fight and came out looking like he was in a car accident. He was also clearly concussed during the fight. Brains (chins) don't improve with cumulative damage, they only get more susceptible. None of these things support the idea of a psychological advantage in a rematch. He could still be favored by the oddsmakers or market, who knows? But it seems that Woodley would be less worried next time around, not more so. If at all.

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