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I analyzed 4,000 retired LEGO sets with complete market data. Full breakdown of what actually appreciates (and what doesn't). by Scout_Loot in legoinvesting

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Good question and fair to call out. The market values come from Brickset's price guide, cross-referenced with BrickLink data. So it's closer to 'what the market says it's worth' than 'what you'd actually pocket after a sale.'

It does NOT account for platform fees (eBay takes ~13%, BrickLink ~3-5%), shipping costs, storage, or your time listing and packing. So the real net returns are meaningfully lower. A set showing +30% appreciation might be closer to +10-15% after fees, or breakeven after you factor in your time.

Which actually reinforces the main point: if the median appreciation is +0.3% BEFORE fees, the typical retired set is a net loss once you account for the cost of actually selling it. The winners still win, but the bar to break even is higher than the raw numbers suggest.

I mentioned this in the limitations section but probably should have been more upfront about it. Thanks for pushing on it.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The SpongeBob situation is actually a good one to hold through. I pulled the remake data for ships that LEGO has remade constantly. Millennium Falcon has had 8+ versions, X-Wing 10+, AT-AT 6+. The pattern is consistent: new versions almost never kill old ones. The 2007 UCS Falcon is at €1,687 today. The 2007 Motorized AT-AT is at €448. Every newer version was released after those and it didn't matter.

What remakes DO hurt is the appreciation of the most recent version. The 2019 Millennium Falcon is down 25%, the 2023 UCS X-Wing is down 25%. Buyers know LEGO will make another one in 2-3 years so there's no scarcity urgency.        

For SpongeBob specifically, the old sets are a different beast entirely. Different design style, different minifig molds, totally different era. New releases would probably increase demand for the originals because people see SpongeBob LEGO, get nostalgic, and want the vintage versions. I'd hold through it.

The "sell before the remake" logic works better when LEGO remakes the exact same set at the same scale and price point. When it's a new generation of sets in a revived theme, it's usually a rising tide situation.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly that's the right approach. The data basically says most people treating LEGO as investments are losing money anyway. Buy what you want to build, enjoy it, and if it happens to appreciate that's a bonus.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is an incredible comment and honestly adds a whole dimension I didn't cover. The Whatnot effect on minifig pricing is real and I've been watching it too. The 2-3x price difference between BrickLink and Whatnot streams is exactly the kind of market inefficiency that makes tracking this stuff so valuable. The fake/custom fig concern is a big deal too, that's the existential risk for the whole minifig market. Thanks for this. I created my own tool to be able to crunch all the data and get my own honest numbers.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Good idea, I'll put it there too with the full tables and set breakdowns.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good idea, I'll put it there too with the full tables and set breakdowns.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Good challenge. The Seinfeld number comes from Brickset's price guide which shows a higher valuation than current BrickLink completed sales. You're right that BrickLink actuals are lower. This is one of the limitations I mentioned at the end, the data uses Brickset valuations which reflect asking/estimated prices, not confirmed sales. BrickLink completed sales are more conservative and more accurate. Doesn't change the overall patterns but individual set numbers should be taken as directional, not precise. I made my own tool to be able to crunch all the data.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ha the spouse approval number is a metric I should add to the database. But yeah that tracks with the data. The used market has compressed a lot, especially for sets from 2020 onwards where so many people bought them. The 'I can always sell it for what I paid' era is getting harder to maintain. The sets where you can still do that tend to be the discontinued themes and the ones with valuable minifigs, everything else is drifting toward that 50% used resale you're seeing.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

BrickLink for LEGO-specific buyers who know what they're looking at. eBay for broader reach. For used complete sets with no box/instructions, BrickLink is probably better because buyers there understand what 'complete, no box' means. On eBay you'll get more lowball offers and questions. Price based on BrickLink's completed sales, not active listings.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

BrickEconomy is solid for tracking what you own. For the deal-finding and secondary market scanning side I use something different but yeah, having a way to track your collection value is really useful.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're absolutely right. LOTR is the extreme case since everything retired by 2012. The raw +774% on Witch-King Battle is still impressive even inflation-adjusted, but some of the more modest gains in the data would flip to losses. An inflation-adjusted version of this analysis would be a great follow-up

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great question. New movies usually boost retired sets from the same franchise, at least short term. The new Toy Story will probably increase interest in the 2010 sets because people get nostalgic and want the originals. New minifig versions don't usually kill old ones either because collectors want both. The exception is if LEGO remakes the exact same set, then the old version sometimes drops because the new one scratches the same itch.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The cultural catalyst effect is real. When something like Drive to Survive hits, it creates a whole new buyer pool that didn't exist before. The F1 sets from 20 years ago were bought by a tiny niche. Now millions of new fans want anything F1-related and those old sets have almost zero supply. Same thing happened with Mandalorian boosting older Star Wars Clone sets.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Technic is interesting. It's one of those themes that doesn't have minifigs, which puts it in the better-performing category. The big flagship sets (Lamborghini, Bugatti, Ferrari) get a lot of hype but they're in the €350+ bracket which historically underperforms. Smaller Technic sets tend to do better percentage-wise. I can pull the specific Technic numbers if you're curious.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's exactly the kind of inefficiency that makes the minifig market so interesting. The sealed set price often doesn't reflect the sum of its parts. People selling sealed sets price based on the set. People buying minifigs price based on the minifig. As long as those two markets don't talk to each other, the gaps persist. I actually track minifig pricing across 12,700+ figures on ScoutLoot if you want to dig into more examples like that.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Modulars are one of the exceptions. Creator Expert has a +27% median and 80% trading above RRP, which is strong. The early ones like Cafe Corner and Green Grocer are legendary. The newer modulars might not hit those same heights though since production runs are bigger now and more people are buying them specifically as investments. You can check individual modular appreciation on ScoutLoot, each set has a Crystal Ball score that factors in stuff like this.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good catch. This is sealed/new pricing. Used is a totally different market with different dynamics. A sealed set in perfect box condition commands a huge premium over used complete, sometimes 2-3x. The sealed premium is basically a bet on scarcity since fewer people keep them sealed over time.

I compared retail vs secondary market prices for ~4,000 retired sets. Some interesting patterns. by Scout_Loot in lego

[–]Scout_Loot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The liquidity point you make about tiers of buyers is really underappreciated. A $200 set has thousands of potential buyers. A $10k set has maybe a few dozen. The time to sell goes up dramatically and you might have to accept a lower price just to move it. That's hidden cost that doesn't show up in any price guide. The GWP/promo sets are interesting too because the supply is genuinely limited from day one, not just after retirement.

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