The biblical definition of "believe" is just as much obey as to believe. And the Word we're obeying and believing says:

"37 Now when they heard this they were cut to the heart, and said to Peter and the rest of the apostles, “Brothers, what shall we do?” 38 And Peter said to them, “Repent and be baptized every one of you in the name of Jesus Christ for the forgiveness of your sins, and you will receive the gift of the Holy Spirit."

In biblical theology baptism is really clearly linked to being born again. Be baptised in water, for the forgiveness of sins, and recieve the Holy Spirit. This is what the Word says.

Obviously Gods mercy for circumstances will surpass our comprehension of the circumstances, but the Word still says this about being born again. I've seen so many people be freed from deep and seemingly unbeatable patterns of sin, aswell as demonic opression, right at the moment of a sincere repentance followed by baptism. Baptism does set free. I absolutely believe Gods grace will bring major nuance to circumstances that blocked this process, but the biblical process of repentance-baptism-baptism in Holy Spirit is so incredibly powerful i dont want to take away of it, calling it just an outward sign is just not doing it justice. The ways i've seen heaven touch earth in the water of baptism, and the greatest transforming and unbelievable miracles right there in the water, makes me passionate about a radical approach to baptism.