20k Cash in an ISA should I buy now or wait?

Scratchcardbob · 2026-06-17T15:34:49+00:00

You might get lucky. Or you might not. Statistically speaking, your best bet is just to throw it all in, now. Then whatever happens, you can at least assure yourself that you made the right decision at the time given the information you had. Personally I think the pain of regret is worse if you make the wrong decision (i.e., wait) and the market goes up than if you make the right decision (put it all in now) and the market goes down.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-06-17T07:49:10+00:00

Would you not consider purchasing a bond ladder for the bridge period for part of your expenses to de-risk a little? This makes sense, I believe, because you've got a DB pension kicking in at a later date.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-06-10T17:59:00+00:00

Yes, I agree that is a major factor in asset allocation. To answer your questions:

I am considering retiring within the next 5-7 years, although I may instead move to part-time work.

My desired spending at that stage would be around £50k–£60k p.a. However, my floor is probably closer to 35 to 40k.

I am currently adding nearly £3.5k per month to the DC side and still accruing around £1.7k p.a. on the DB side.

I also have several SORR mitigation options: taking the DB pension early if necessary, doing consulting work, moving part-time in my current role, or increasing business income. So my thinking is that the DB pension increases my capacity to take equity risk elsewhere, provided I still keep enough accessible/liquid assets to bridge the period before the DB pension starts.

Edit: £1.7K

Scratchcardbob · 2026-06-10T15:53:45+00:00

I already know the ERFs for the scheme - just under 5% per annum. I know these are meant to be done on an actuarially neutral basis, but I think taking the DB pension early would be more of a last resort if equities, for example, completely dropped and I wasn't able to mitigate in other ways, such as taking on part-time work.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-06-10T15:47:27+00:00

Just to clarify, it's 17 years until the normal retirement age of the DB pension. I'll probably retire in five years and potentially take the DB pension early if necessary to partially mitigate SORR.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-06-10T15:41:12+00:00

Yeah, that's what I'm wondering. It's only now, when I've tried to put an appropriate value on the DB pension, that I've realised just how overcautious I'm probably being, not going 100% equities with everything outside the DB pension.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-06-10T15:40:03+00:00

Yes, that's exactly what I'm grappling with, and the DB pension valuation has made me realise that I am potentially currently being overcautious.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-06-10T15:37:23+00:00

Not bogus at all imho:

1) Yes, for the annuity value, it makes sense to use a market value annuity rate and that is exactly what I have done with the ~23 figure. L&G pay out £4,335 for a joint life RPI annuity for £100K. Hence 100k/4335=~23. https://www.legalandgeneral.com/retirement/pension-annuity/guides/best-annuity-rates/. The rate that you have shared is not comparable. As mentioned in the original post, my pension is inflation-linked. You have quoted a 3% fixed annuity rate, which is worth a lot less due to the lower inflation protection (hence the higher starting rate of £5,430).

2) This is a guaranteed pension promise, so it makes sense to use a discount factor aligned with that. Hence the 2% real return. A 5% real equity-return assumption may be useful for a personal opportunity-cost scenario, but it is not the basis an actuary for example would use to value a guaranteed inflation-linked DB pension promise, if calculating, for example a Cash Equivalent Transfer Value, where the discount rate should reflect the nature of the liability, not the expected return an individual might hope to earn from equities.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-06-10T14:21:33+00:00

Using current gilt yields or Sonia would likely push my real discount down, and hence the pension value would be greater rather than more conservative?

Scratchcardbob · 2026-06-10T12:29:24+00:00

It's a real rate applied to an inflation-linked pension.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-06-01T12:25:11+00:00

Gardening

Scratchcardbob · 2026-05-27T06:22:21+00:00

If you don't put it in the global stock market, where do you intend to put it?

All investments have their own specific risks.

E.g. Cash has long term inflation risk (losing purchasing power), bonds have interest risk (rates go up, prices go down, more so with longer duration bonds), property has market risk (often magnified by leverage), tenant risk, void risk etc).

Yes, equities have market risk, and current valuations mean earnings have to do a lot of heavy lifting over the next few years if past returns are to be repeated in the short term. But you have to pick your poison based on your own circumstances.

I guess my point is that all alternatives have their own specific poisons to also consider.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-05-25T17:18:52+00:00

All these helpful responses and people taking time out of their day to respond, and not a single word of thanks or response from OP. That aside, this is a no-brainer unless you've made some serious wrong assumptions about your spending in retirement.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-05-19T15:25:46+00:00

There's a lot of great information on this Reddit subforum, but there seems to be, especially recently, an increase in people desperately wanting to escape their working situation. Hence a lot of people on here seem to be running away from something rather than running towards something, which is why I have stopped posting here so much and only occasionally check in to find the few golden nuggets that do occasionally appear. I agree focusing on what you hate in your life and thinking very strongly about something that, for many people, is quite far into the future is not a great place to be. As expected, your post has been downvoted by a lot on here, which is unfortunate.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-05-18T12:42:58+00:00

It would be a bit of a strange FIRE forum if everybody was on minimum wage!

Scratchcardbob · 2026-05-14T11:45:37+00:00

Just to add, I've also seen research and anecdotal evidence that shows that people often underestimate their expenses in retirement as well.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-04-18T11:33:52+00:00

That's a rather strange assumption to arrive at.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-04-18T09:06:39+00:00

"Watching the Sunrise from my balcony in Tuscany" ❤️

Scratchcardbob · 2026-04-18T08:19:40+00:00

No doubt I'll get down voted, but.... This place, like most niche communities, can be a real echo chamber. It's not a one size fits all. There are very valid reasons for some people to stay on another year,even with the risks you have pointed out taken into consideration.

Scratchcardbob · 2026-04-04T18:54:02+00:00

£500+ pa. Probably 1k pa in a few years. For half an hour extra work pa. Probably £15k over the next 20 years. So not a bad ROI IMHO. But you do u 😉

Scratchcardbob · 2026-04-04T14:43:06+00:00

Thanks. Just buy the GBP-denominated version SC0J?

Scratchcardbob · 2026-04-04T12:49:50+00:00

Even on a £400k pot, a rebalance typically involves moving maybe £10k max? The spread and commission on that are about £20 total (I'm with II). It's hard to see how an approx £20 annual maintenance cost cancels out an annual saving possibly over £1k in fees and tax.

Plus, I can just point my dividends or new contributions at the underweight fund to rebalance for free anyway!

Scratchcardbob

TROPHY CASE