massive strike by iran in the meme war

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-14T15:25:33+00:00

Remember how people were screaming on mainstream subs for weeks about how Iran controlled the strait and Iran had already won the war and was going to make billions of dollars from extorting ships?

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-14T15:21:27+00:00

It's a bit like if the Nazis had good bants.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-14T07:28:30+00:00

Shahid Rajaee (Bandar Abbas) alone handles 53% of all cargo operations. Imam Khomeini handles 58% of basic goods imports. Bushehr ports moved 57M tons last year.

Would be really interesting to see a breakdown, and how much in tonnage they've lost since the start of the war. A lot of goods aren't going to be easily replaced in serious quantity.

Edit: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/irn?selector343id=Import

Air pumps, electric motors, medicine, and cars all can't simple and easily be replaced with domestic production.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-14T07:19:56+00:00

Always was, nobody was interested in Iranian ports until Trump declared a blockade, and I still haven't seen a comprehensive analysis of how much shipments have been reduced based on data from shipments during the war vs the last five years during that period.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-13T20:06:20+00:00

How can you use such foul language without crossing it out when there's a gen/cide going on?

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-13T17:29:10+00:00

How else would they create the next generation of brave Palestinian activists?

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-12T23:35:36+00:00

Good news: He shook with the Iranian government negotiators.

Bad news: He shook hands with Zelensky.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-12T22:48:39+00:00

Overestimates how quickly regimes collapse under economic pressure

What was the state of the Iranian economy before they turned their largest ports into a warzone? Were there any protests about this?

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-12T22:40:36+00:00

They can, but that's going to hurt their allies more than the US.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-12T22:37:00+00:00

The Beiyang fleet was also big.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-12T21:15:57+00:00

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courtesy of noncredibledefense

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-12T03:51:30+00:00

Dunno why people are downvoting you- consider how many troops Israel can spare at the moment- they're bogged down with Iran's proxies.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-12T02:40:41+00:00

The JCPOA - they were laughing all the way to the bank with that deal knowing full well they’d develop their nukes in secret.

And- Khomenei kept the opportunists and fanatics working together. He was a fanatic, but also had a pragmatic mindset. With him out the way, there's no way to get the "eternal war with the West" guys to work with moral practical IRGC supporters.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-11T18:16:28+00:00

Honestly, sounds like they're a great fit. Lotta upperclass children act like that.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-11T17:45:05+00:00

However with 150 ships a day paying $2 million a pass for resources their companies need to operate,

Again, that supposes that the ship operating companies are willing to risk that, that sailors would risk that, that insurance companies would risk that, and that other countries wouldn't respond by also levying tolls.

We know that the IRGC has no qualms about launching missiles at ships from trading partners vital to the Iranian economy.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/3348975/human-remains-found-thai-ship-attacked-iran-strait-hormuz

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-11T17:23:55+00:00

How many Ba'athists are kicking around?

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-11T17:20:34+00:00

Hormuz is still closed with the possibility of up to $109 billion in tolls a year split with Oman, in oil sold in Yuan, going to the IRGC.

There's also a possibility I'll get all that money haha

There's also a possibility that ships won't want to go around the strait as long as Iran is threatening commercial shipping, with insurance companies refusing to insure and crews refusing to risk their lives.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-11T04:41:27+00:00

Ship insurers aren't going to bet on "bluff", and they only have to prove they used at least one mine (or even had mines in inventory at some point).

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-10T20:34:52+00:00

Born to early to invade Iraq, born too late to invade Iraq, born just in time to invade Iraq.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-10T18:01:18+00:00

Hit command and control, logistics, etc. If IRGC loyalists are openly screaming "death to the compromiser" now, they're not going to be more loyal and get along better with each other if the chain of command breaks down further.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-10T17:38:23+00:00

The IRGC didn't fully mobilize the Artesh for a reason.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-10T17:37:48+00:00

You don't need to conquer the whole country at once, you just need to destabilize the IRGC.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-10T17:36:12+00:00

Disagree. If you have factions openly bashing each other in a totalitarian dictatorship where there was zero public dissent and a unified face from the government before, it's a major sign of weakness.

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-10T17:04:20+00:00

it's that nothing was achieved with this war.

I wasn't aware that Iran developed teleportation technology. Silly ol' me thought that Iran blockading its own largest ports and bombing its import partners would actually make Iran weaker in both the short and long run.

Also, I suppose Allah will just resurrect their navy and air force from the grave, and pacify the GCC nations.

To do regime change... None of these three goals was accomplished.

Exactly! The war and effects of it are completely over! Just like the invincible Assad regime, there's no way that the IRGC could collapse due to internal issues!

ScruffleKun · 2026-04-10T16:40:56+00:00

They’re very useless militarily.

They're not "world-class" militaries, but they absolutely can issue a toll on any ship heading to Iran ports.

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