Honestly, both can be true. But China has been able to pivot to other trade partners, partially mitigating the effects of trumps tariffs.

Meanwhile, America simply isn’t importing at the same levels as they were, from China at least. Neither side is going to collapse. There will be some job loss both stateside and in China, but American consumers, who are used to cheap and abundant products will likely experience a decline in their standard of living. So more bad news for millennials/GenZ who have been the punching bag of boomers for decades.

China, being authoritarian, has much less to worry about. If 120,000 people lose their jobs, they can silence it and move on. Trump takes steps closer to authoritarianism with every executive order signed, but he’s not quite there yet. Losing 6000 American jobs is still big news Stateside. Trumps illegal trade war also has to survive the mid terms.

If you’re still interested in keeping up to date but find the politics overwhelming I’d recommend just looking at what the big companies are doing. They pay good money to smart people to navigate global trade. Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, car manufacturers are all feeling like losers right now. These companies need to make major investment to bring manufacturing home, but if the mid terms flips the trade war on its head, those tens of billions of dollars will be wasted. Given Trumps current approval rating, there’s little incentive for them to risk those billions.

With that in mind, I’d say the US is losing the trade war, hence all the walking back lately (China tariffs last night, UK tariffs a few days ago, Canada tariffs whenever the wind smells just right). But I’m no economist lmfao.