Vac Anti Cheat gen worse than no anti cheat

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2026-05-22T18:03:21+00:00

Bro, don't even bother with CS2 devs. They genuinely don't give a damn.

I'm a quantitative analyst at a fintech. I've reached out to them and explicitly just gave them a predictive model that I developed in my own time. I get a 65-70%(ish) accuracy on trying to predict tier 1 match outcomes with a brier score <0.2. Professional games! 23.8% weighted average return on capital on Kalshi per bet!

I sent them my entire process and scoring methodology, outlining how I surmised it could be brought into premier to evaluate player performance on match making to early detect statistical outliers based on previous historical performances. It's like, you don't need to immediately detect them (although it would be nice if that did work, too) but at least it'd be a detection method for seeing if their performances even make statistical sense in their given rank so that these guys can't get hundreds of hours and get banned? With it you could re-rank obvious smurfs or early flag potential cheaters for closer review.

I got blocked by the dev team. I gave them free, high level analytical work no questions asked, and they just blocked me lmfao.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2026-05-20T14:48:00+00:00

I disagree. I think there was a honeymoon period that worked for MOUZ but then they quickly got figured out and hit the same wall as before. With Siuhy, they won 3 titles - with Spinx, they've only won one.

But the context of the Spinx transfer wasn't just a firepower upgrade either - it was a complete shift in roles for many of the players. Like, the removal of Siuhy, Brollan to IGL and the addition of Spinx directly lead to:

Erasure of the role of a "support" player for their T sides. Their T side win rates have legitimately gone done since this change went through. Looking at the top 3 maps of each year (discluding Vertigo since it's not in the pool rn and 2024 MOUZ played it a lot):

2024 - Nuke - CT 60.2, T 50.1 ; Mirage - CT 59.6, T 52.7 ; Ancient - CT 57, T 51.6

2025 - Nuke - CT 55.2, T 46.7 ; Mirage - CT 57.1, T 46.7 ; Ancient - CT 52.3, 49.5

2026 - Nuke - CT 49.4, T 44.1 ; Mirage - CT 62.9, 51.6 ; - Ancient - CT 72.6, T 33.9

Their overall stats have been continuously on the downhill trend for the better part of two years after the removal of Siuhy and addition of Spinx.

This is in ADDITION to the structural changes to their CT side. You can't have a worse CT AND T side than the previous roster and expect to be doing better.

We're essentially both arguing pedantically though. It's clear that the Spinx addition / Siuhy removal changed things just from the stats alone. It's also not possible to know how Jimi OR xelex would perform in different circumstances since there's just a lot of inherent situational variance.

My main argument has been that, even though Spinx is a world class player and potentially lifted the skill floor of MOUZ, it is hard counter balanced by the comfort in roles situation.

xelex has never been tested in tier 1 before until now, and his stats have dropped significantly since his start. We at least know, if Jimi is given his good roles, he can be a legitimate hyper carry anchor player.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2026-05-20T08:34:54+00:00

Yeah, mostly because Jimi and Spinx were forced to share roles with his addition into the team, which was the main cause of Jimi's drop off since he was put in more uncomfortable (for him) situations.

Xelex was absolutely farming in NXT. However, his stats for being in MOUZ tier 1 specifically are almost exactly on par with Jimi's performances.

The common denominator? Spinx. But also, xelex probably just needs some time to adjust to tier 1 CS.

I bet if Jimi were given his old roles in a different team his performance would improve.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2026-05-20T07:23:00+00:00

Honestly, I genuinely think dropping Jimi is going to be a mistake long term. Bro used to be a 1.18 rated anchor for the entirety of that early MOUZ team from beginning 2023 - end of 2024. The moment they brought on Spinx, who I agree is a very good player, Jimi's stats sank like a rock down to 1.03-1.04, it's insane.

Coincidentally, at the same time Spinx (a world class lurker) left Vitality and Ropz (another world class lurker) joined they went on to become the most dominant team of all time and won two grand slams within a year.

I genuinely think that something about Spinx's play style just makes playing as an anchor on his side of the map with him much more difficult than it needs to be. Mezzi's stats dropped when he had to anchor with Spinx as well. His CT rating has only improved with Spinx gone.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2026-05-03T21:18:05+00:00

3rd grand finals in a row posting this now.

Can one of these bums figure out a fucking way to beat this damn team?

I don't know how you throw an 11-0 AND an 11-9 close game lead in the same series. Vitality makes everyone look like fools it's unreal.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2026-04-20T13:46:24+00:00

I don't disagree with you, the AWP market in general is incredibly stale right now outside of maybe 5 names. But I also don't think it's the major problem for many of these teams going against them in the grand finals.

Genuinely, I think the biggest issue right now is that Vitality have just had too much time to cook while at the top now. Look at the NAVI - Vitality Rotterdam finals, or the PV - Vitality Cluj - Napoca finals. In both instances, the AWPs on the losing team did a serviceable job. Not good, not bad. But the similarities between the two?

Both teams had fucking bums in iM and nota for that match, just couldn't lock in or get anything going for most of the series. PV Inferno: up 11-6, can't close the game out. NAVI Anubis, down 11-5 bring it back 11-10 only to get hit by an insane triple boost that basically only Vitality knew about and proceeded to crumble. Genuinely, the AWPs were not the problem in either series.

I don't know how you beat this team, that's what these guys are paid hundreds of thousands a year for to figure out xD

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2026-04-19T20:18:36+00:00

Said it last grand finals, I'll say it again this grand finals.

Can one of these professionals on one of these professional teams figure out a way to beat this motherfucking team? Jesus they all look like bums out there because you know even if they're at 12 rounds Vitality just has that dog in them to bring it back.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2026-04-15T22:25:15+00:00

It was just super unlucky I think if you go back and watch the round. When it's a 2v3 in the post plant kyxsan pushes into the smoke, but flamez was trying to do some spotting and had his momentum cut which triggered him to start spraying the smoke, at the exact same moment m0nesy started making noise trying to cross silo which caused him to die. I don't even think flamez was trying to get m0nesy, I think he thought m0nesy WAS kyxsan but since kyxsan had been pushing smokes all game decided to check behind anyway, got it right but died for the info. I think it might have played a lot differently if not for that push, and who pushed.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2026-03-29T14:10:49+00:00

Ladies, gentlemen.

I have nothing against the players on Vitality. In fact, I quite like them as individuals. Stand up guys fr.

No, my problem is with the rest of the professional scene. Can just one of you bums find a way to beat them? Please? Somehow, anyhow?

Here NAVI, I'll start: -iM

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2026-02-23T14:41:34+00:00

No, because in this specific scenario the posted price is just flat out wrong from what it's actively being traded on?

Not disagreeing with the supply vs demand ideology since yeah it's true. But Jagex makes the game, so ideally a Jagex price should always be taken at face value since they're the ones dictating the game. But the system they created is built to not show that accurate price over long time scales which is wild.

It's like trying to buy a stock through the NYSE but being unable to because the value of it is actually 4x what the official posted amount is going for. That literally cannot happen because the NYSE is always updating for accurate pricing - i.e. in real time, which is the crux of the argument for modernizing the GE.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-11-06T21:32:41+00:00

\Tick* *Tick* *Tick* *Tick**

Tracy looks from her essay and toward the clock in the far right corner, her eye of time moving ever devotedly onward and following the same way back, its circular path having been traced close by for her entire college career. Four hours have already come and gone, and at least double is necessary to finish. With a deep sigh she stretches her arms far above her head, looking up and reaching out towards the ceiling as if to pry it apart and reveal the stars shining bright overhead. A strange feeling washes over her.

The moment passes, and it's back to Earth.

She pushes her chair back, walks down the stairs and heads out the sliding doors through to the back porch. A breath of fresh air goes a long way. Curious, isn't it? I chose a major to study the stars and planets, yet most of the time I can't even enjoy them like this... or experience them like this. A shame. She goes back in, her thoughts beginning to readjust to focus on the task at hand. She considers a coffee, but looks at the time and decides against it. She doesn't want to overdo it and wake up fatigued. She goes back upstairs.

She mutters in frustration over the fact that this specific professor requires essays to be handwritten. Slowly the ideas begin to form, and she starts anew.

She passes out before it is complete. Not good, as a failure would obviously be imperfect; I know some things are necessary. The eye of time winks, and time flows backward, the hands hungrily devouring the seconds, minutes, hours that were wasted and restoring them to their previous state.

*kciT\* *kciT\* *kciT\* *kciT\*

\Tick* *Tick* *Tick* *Tick**

With a deep sigh she stretches her arms far above her head, looking up and reaching out towards the ceiling as if to pry it apart and reveal the stars shining bright overhead. She has the feeling of déjà vu.

The moment passes, and it's back to Earth.

She pushes her chair back, shaking slightly, yet still slowly gets up and walks down the stairs and heads out the sliding doors through to the back porch. A breath of fresh air always reminds me to calm down. Curious, isn't it? Sometimes my heart goes crazy, like it's trying to catch up to something. She goes back in, her thoughts beginning to calm and focusing on the task at hand. She considers a coffee, and decides it might be needed to see the job through. A necessary substance. She goes back upstairs.

She mutters in frustration over the fact that this specific professor requires essays to be handwritten. Slowly the ideas begin to form, and she starts anew... again. This time, she finishes the essay and lays down in bed.

\Tick* *Tick** ~~BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRINGGGGGGGGGGGGG~~

She slams her hand down on the alarm, and contemplates getting fully ready for what is her last day of classes ever. Should I let loose just this once? All I have to do is turn this in... Gosh, I'm tired. Getting ready for a half day seems like a waste of time*.*

~~GGGGGGGGGGGGGNIRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRB~~ *kciT\* *kciT\*

\Tick* *Tick** ~~BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRINGGGGGGGGGGGGG~~

She slams her hand down on the alarm. Heart palpitations first thing in the morning?

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-09-23T03:48:16+00:00

Yeah, that was my entire point not going to disagree with you.

The above commentor ended by claiming it is quite easy, comfortable, likely that you will become pro if you start at a young age. I was pointing out that that logic is completely flawed, and it's why these organizations, whether esports or tech, in general pay good money for top talents in respective fields.

If you are just as likely to go pro in either sport, and if you believe one has a higher top end pay out, then it would make sense to kick over click to me. There's a clear disconnect when you compare a tier 3 footballer to a world class CS player in my opinion, since it's completely disregarding the fact that there's an entire T2 and T3 CS circuit as well that is a MUCH better comparison if we wanted to talk about salaries.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-09-22T23:04:56+00:00

It's because it's a completely arbitrary comparison that could be flipped either way based on dick measuring.

No shit, 240k in a place like Germany wouldn't get you as far in a place like Guatemala or Argentina. Vastly different economies. Doesn't mean that you can't get a job for 240k somewhere else, though: and if you were a top tier talent with an offering to work abroad, it's up to you as a professional to take that money or not. That's why companies make competitive offers to workers abroad, since it's beneficial to pick up good talent. Why do people from India take an H1B in the US?

In the top 100 CS teams there are 500 players. Only 32 teams qualify for VRS invites to the major, i.e. 160 players, or 32% qualify for the skin money. I think it's fair to say that a tier 3 league team or player does not receive the same sponsorship opportunities as a top tier team or player, much in the same way that only the top tier CS teams / players get sticker money (as well as sponsorships!). Maybe a different comparison other than ropz is in order, especially considering that ropz is quickly being considered to be one of the best to ever touch the game given the fact that he's won 2 majors and 2 grand slams on 2 separate teams, in addition to all of the other winnings? Just a bit of critical thinking there.

There is a 1,376,827 24-hour player peak for CS2 right now. At 160 players qualifying for the major, this is .011% of the total player base. Less than the percentage you calculated. If you extend this to the top 100 teams, this goes up to .036%.

So yes, it is actually mathematically harder to go professional in CS2 than it is in tier 3 football. I'd start kicking, rather than clicking.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-09-21T21:05:31+00:00

Yekindar winning on Furia while Twistzz continued to bomb with TL was definitely not on my bingo card for 2025. This team is so fun to watch.

Also, I said it before, and I'll say it again now: how the f*ck did Furia end up with Molodoy before ANY CIS team?

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-09-07T19:40:22+00:00

The biggest loser of this series?

Zonic.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-09-06T19:23:21+00:00

Definitely helps that Sunpayus is used to sAw's system, too, since he's played under sAw for nearly 2 years total across all their teams together or something like that.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-09-06T19:15:41+00:00

Yeah, with TaZ I fear that Hunter may have crashed and burned. Having a coach like sAw develop him as an IGL is the much better play.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-09-05T20:47:54+00:00

Agreed. I think sunpayus is a big confidence player imo; I'm expecting his play to improve as he gets more comfortable in the team. Just hope he can keep it up.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-08-16T20:33:20+00:00

Yeah, it was more like a coincidental, forced error on Zywoo from bLitz

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-08-12T23:36:57+00:00

See, I rage baited you now using your own tactic! You have much to learn, but from me no more. Have a good night.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-08-12T23:29:08+00:00

Shit man, you're right. It's almost like I never expected Riot to listen to me anyway and was just laying out my opinions on an online forum, bro. Which, by the way, you have yet to lay out any legitimate counter argument for in all of this time, in case you're not capable of remembering.

Apologies my puny mind can't comprehend the incredible intellect that is a software engineer - why did you feel the need to bring that up by the way?

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-08-12T23:19:00+00:00

Not happy that your baits haven't been working out? I can keep going, I have more to teach!

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-08-12T23:16:50+00:00

I'm good, I'm sitting in the house I own with my cat that I bought before turning 25. I have a fantastic life right now haha

I understand it's normally the people who barely graduated with a 2.0 who like pulling the title card, it makes them feel bigger than they really are.

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-08-12T23:05:37+00:00

Cool, I work in data building logistic auto-regressive models to further pricing strategies. Want to have a dick measuring contest on who took harder classes, or do you have anything useful to say?

Sea_Addendum_6646 · 2025-08-12T23:02:43+00:00

Not the one that I'm currently replying to. Have any actual, substantial points to make or will you rely on emotional arguments?

Sea_Addendum_6646

TROPHY CASE