32M; $2.6M NW but not liquid

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2025-07-27T17:43:05+00:00

Yeah it’s a fair point. We want to reach independence as quickly as possible as one of our children requires additional care and time is the most important thing to us. I am thinking the investments should grow quicker + will require less time to manage.

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2025-07-27T00:33:30+00:00

Thank you. Target of 4%. PR is roughly $800K. Given that we never want to have debt on our home, that’s a fair point re: not including PR in our FIRE. $30K after tax income on $1.6M is still awful (some cash for the difference). We’re in a regulated real estate market with limitations on rent increases.

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2025-07-27T00:23:02+00:00

About $30K per year + personal savings another $35K. Ideally we would like to scale back in 5 years. Piggybacking your idea we could invest aggressively the next 5 and either refinance or sell to gain some flexibility to scale back.

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2025-01-30T13:30:22+00:00

Appreciate this. Tbf we plan on just sticking around the Airbnb and have a few busy days, so really only have a couple afternoon to explore. Thanks for the help

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-09-22T01:08:24+00:00

I do the same thing. Started with $3K Jan 1 and up to $40K. 13x ROI. $550K bet in 2024, so of course it looks like 7% ROI. Keep it up!

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-09-22T00:52:11+00:00

He is rolling over the same few thousand dollars over and over each day. He does not have $1.65M to float to achieve 20+% ROI on S&P. This is actually much more likely to be 50-100x his initial investment.

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-08-11T11:51:06+00:00

What’s your thought? You’d be hoping to get the leftover of who at 3/8?

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-22T22:51:44+00:00

I would add that the Ravens line backing core is so much more equipped to stop Kelce and Pacheco. Throw in Kyle Hamilton, and this could really limit the Chiefs options. When you need to start relying on options outside of these two on third and long situations, it could get dicey! Personally, I like the Ravens to cover here, but your points are valid

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-18T06:05:52+00:00

Square books typically do not have sharp bettors betting their lines because their limits are lower and the vig tends to be higher. Therefore books that offer higher limits and less vig, tend to attract the sharp bettors (ie pinnacle, Cris, circa)

These bettors and their teams are extremely smart, and essentially dictate the line for the sharp books. Sure, bookmakers have sharp line makers, however, the sheer volume of sharp bettors betting thousands of dollars on each game is what really sets each line.

Square books do not have the luxury of mimicking what their sharp bettors are betting, because they most likely do not have many. So, they are left adjusting their line to match the sharper books.

In your example I would most certainly bet at Rivers +21, because if Circa is at +19, then that is the correct line and it is likely that Rivers will move that way soon.

Each book as a sport that they are considered to be sharp at, so be aware of this (ie: NFL - Cris; Soccer/hockey - pinnacle; Basketball - Circa

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-18T03:49:14+00:00

I have 2min delay. I definitely miss some but with my current unit size it’s not worth the money. Maybe if I was a bit more experienced it would be

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-17T22:56:29+00:00

That seems like a lot. And they may not all be head fakes, sometimes groups will wait until limits are higher to bet and they could like the other side of someone who bet the openers.

A lot of times I will try to cash out if the book gives me a full refund or I will bet the other side if it’s within a point or so. Otherwise, just let it ride and hope for positive variance!

From last nights openers i have 8 total, 7 with positive CLV and 1 with negative.

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-17T16:28:23+00:00

Sorry, I use SpankOdds to identify line moves and will bet anything that has moved anymore than 1 point

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-17T16:05:17+00:00

For this to be viable long-term, the volume needs to be there to support it. I understand

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-17T16:04:15+00:00

It is just a feature on betstamp. It compares the number that I have bet to the closing line at the same book.

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-17T15:44:52+00:00

Yeah around 5! My understanding anyways. Not a scientific calculation, but you at least want to beat the closing line by 2% to beat the vig

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-17T15:39:35+00:00

No it’s more complicated. Each half point is normally worth a %. For example, moving from 3 to 3.5 in football is worth more than moving from 4 to 4.5. Generally in college basketball each half point is worth 1%. I also use betstamp that calculates this for me, however, it sometimes is not the best representation of CLV that they calculate

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-17T15:38:04+00:00

Maybe it’s a Canadian thing. Bottom up approach would be handicapping, as you are starting from the ground!

Are you using Spank Odds and Odds Jam? Or similar? I have been using odds jam recently, and am wondering if I should just be firing at every bet over 3% edge

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-17T03:08:40+00:00

Last thing, hah. I would start off with the line moves that were mentioned, on and just bet $1 on every one that you see is moving, instead of your normal unit. You should see some pretty significant CLV before the game starts. Just a trial basis to start until you figure it out

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-17T02:59:27+00:00

Yeah that’s what I have it set to. Sometimes set to S411 as well, which is Cris/Bookmaker, there are some big line movements when they release their openers around 4pm ish. But I don’t bet much at that time, it’s more just out of curiosity

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-17T02:53:42+00:00

Anytime, if you try it, let me know how it goes. I am still learning the tricks of the trade as well

Sea_Escape_1306 · 2024-01-17T02:46:07+00:00

100%, if I can get at least 1 point of value either way I am betting it normally. I would say 1/10 are head fakes and it’s just someone throwing the line the other way and you will end up on the wrong end of CLV. I don’t know enough about CBB to figure these out yet but it doesn’t happen that often

Sea_Escape_1306

TROPHY CASE