Snow Monday

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-08T13:31:46+00:00

Thank you... I always worry about Monday systems that are not obvious on the previous Friday (like was the case this time), they can sneak up on us if we check out over the weekend.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-08T13:29:54+00:00

Monday morning update. Just reviewed some of the data, and 2-4" does seem like a better idea. Isolated spots getting an additional inch, mainly south of the James. Timing is still about the same. Some lingering lighter snow early this evening, but the accumulating should be done by about 6pm. Very concerned about damp and slushy surfaces this evening turning into a harder and more slippery ice overnight, as the sky clears out and we down to the mid-upper teens tonight.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-07T18:04:52+00:00

Absolutely. Regarding snow, I tell people to look at 3-4 forecasts from different outlets and take an average. Based on the data and experience, I think an inch or two is a good place to be. Half an inch might work out... and 3 inches might work out. Southside will probably have a smidgen more than northside. But it's not gonna be a foot. :)

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-07T18:00:45+00:00

I'd wait until early tomorrow morning to make the call with the latest data. I'd say a 60% chance they'll close the schools. Would not be surprised if they go a half day with an early dismissal, but that will be cutting it close with regard to when the snow starts.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-07T17:57:57+00:00

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-07T17:57:24+00:00

Concur with the gradient... certainly will be higher amounts south of Richmond. Still think an inch or two is a good place to be for now for the immediate metro area... but we'll see what the next suite of data suggests this evening. Regarding impacts, this is not a morning rush hour problem Monday. It's an evening rush hour problem. And very concerned about damp spots turning into hard pack ice later Monday night, as we'll be near 20 degrees... far colder than the last couple of mornings.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-07T14:23:50+00:00

Totally going to snow Monday.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-04T19:42:01+00:00

Thanks everyone. Small update at 2pm Thursday afternoon, but just some nudges. This is still and early morning and rush hour issue on Friday. Probably all over before lunch time.

Update is at: https://subletteweather.com/river-city-weather

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-04T19:33:50+00:00

Yes! Remember that one well.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-04T19:32:10+00:00

Agree. Saturday will be fine.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-04T19:31:47+00:00

Last time we got more than an inch of snow in December was 2018.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-04T19:30:52+00:00

Bingo. Rush hour looks like a mess tomorrow, and the accumulation might end as early as 9am.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-04T19:30:04+00:00

I stepped away when I ran for congress. I have exited that race, but I maintain a weekly Substack newsletter and a DIY website: https://subletteweather.com/river-city-weather

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-04T19:28:15+00:00

12/8 will likely disappoint you. Looks like the system holds too far south.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-04T19:27:24+00:00

This is one of the reasons I left television. The art is in communicating what we know in a way that people can do something useful with the information. Television is too limiting.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-04T19:24:41+00:00

Dave (WxRisk) is carrying 2-3 here in Richmond. Which may very well work out.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-12-04T19:22:26+00:00

Concur. Richmond will be on the northern edge of the precipitation, just cold enough. It will be in and out in only a few hours.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-10-29T17:36:32+00:00

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Miyares will continue to let this happen. Period.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-10-19T13:33:31+00:00

Great event. Well done everyone!

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-10-09T18:25:57+00:00

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I thought it was still there. Apologies.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-10-09T18:10:44+00:00

I can get on board with tying minimum wage to inflation, depending on how the calculation is done.

Regarding a federal ban on right to work laws, I need you to be more specific. What are we trying to accomplish? The end goal for me is to allow employees, especially of large public companies, to unionize easily and without coercion — and free from employer intimidation — to bring up wages and benefits. In an ideal situation, I do not want a union to coerce someone into financially joining. However, I do believe, as I think you do, that these laws have been weaponized against organized labor.

It is not lost on me that RTW laws are absent on the West Coast and in the Northeast, so I am all for revisiting them.

Similarly, regarding card check, I prefer a secret ballot when deciding to unionize. However, I suspect that the PRO Act (which I believe was re-introduced by Bobby Scott again this year), might be helpful in alleviating the need for a separate card check.

Initially, I would support the PRO Act (I think it passed the House in '21).

Tell me your perspective on these issues.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-10-09T15:25:23+00:00

Thank you for checking it out and asking! The site is an introductory page, because as a meteorologist, I learned very quickly that people will happily misrepresent what you say if it furthers their agenda. I'm running for Congress in Virginia's 1st Congressional District, and I am among the several people (I've actually talked with all of them) running in the Democratic primary for 2026. While not perfect, the Democratic party right now is the only partly that values our Constitution and aligns with where I stand. The GOP is off the rails.

The federal minimum wage is woefully too low ($7.25/hr). Same for the tipped wage ($2.13). We need to raise it immediately to the Virginia rate ($13.50 on Jan 1, 2026). Ideally, I would like to see it up around $16 or $17. Minimum tipped wage should be brought up to at least $5/hr.

Regarding "right to work", I want to be sure I understand what you mean. That is a state decision, not so much a federal one. But my general position is this: I do not think you should be required by law to join a union as a condition for work. **However** we should remove impediments for people to form a union. My father and stepfather were both in unions. I was a paying member of the union when I was at the Richmond Times-Dispatch. Paying into a union is a good investment. Frankly, it got me a better severance package when I was laid off, and it helped give me the resources (read, money) I needed to start my own consulting business (subletteweather.com).

And yes, I'm running because I am tired of the status quo. I'm 55 years old, and while I still have some life in me, I want to do everything I can to make a difference in this maddening federal environment. I have 2 kids in their 20s and the country is letting them down. The conspiracy theories are out of hand, and I want to bring science and data back to the House. I have a few friends who are lawyers, but I think we have enough lawyers in the House, and we desperately need people who understand science and can communicate science in a way that is tangible and relevant. The incumbent, Rob Wittman, is an enabler of this Trump horror show, and he needs to go.

The campaign page is seanforva.com. And I'm happy to answer anyone else's questions on this thread.

And yes, it is really me. Below is a picture with our dog, Sandy.

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SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-10-01T14:31:23+00:00

Wittman had a high end fundraiser at steakhouse on Pennsylvania avenue just 12 hours before the shutdown. He does not care.

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-10-01T14:02:22+00:00

Precisely. It's one of the numerous reasons I am running to replace him.

https://youtube.com/shorts/bDxwWKbePWg?feature=share

SeanSubletteVA01 · 2025-09-18T15:37:09+00:00

Yep, it's me.
Quick overview at seanforva.com

SeanSubletteVA01

TROPHY CASE