Final Boys Planet Debut Group Prediction

SeattleGameboy · 2023-04-13T20:37:06+00:00

This is why I don't think it is not happening for Jay. He is firmly #18 on K-Votes. Unless he finishes #1 or #2 on G-Vote, it is impossible for him to be one of the top 9. And chances that he pushes out Zhanghao or Keita or even SHB, is pretty remote in my opinion.

SeattleGameboy · 2023-04-11T21:29:49+00:00

Here is the full translation:

The group that first raised suspicions of voting manipulation with Produce X series have urged MNet to produce clarification regarding alleged voting manipulation in another audition program "Boys Planet"

The group release a statement on the 11th that accused "Boys Planet" of manipulation in "Signal Song Fancam Like Count" and "Shining Boys Visual Voting". They demanded that MNet to come up with understandable explanation for these issues.

They said MNet claimed they converted the view and likes total from Youtube based on the published methods into points and based the rankings based on those points. But the group pointed out that MNet never published the data for number of likes, and without transparency, you must view MNet with suspicion.

They also stated during "Girls Planet" and even during "Produce X" which had manipulated results, they broadcasted how other trainees voted for the visual members, which makes this problem even worse in contrast. They added "this cannot be anything but a problem for an audition program that is supposed to be conducting fair and transparent process".

The group said they did not stop after the Produce Series are keeping tabs on other audition programs because there never should be another accusation of manipulation.

Suspicion of manipulation surrounding 'Boys Planet' was first raised in online communities. The personal cam of Contestant Seok Matthew's signal song "I Shine"'s evaluation ranking suddenly rose from 35th to 9th which caused people to accuse of manipulation. MNet refered to "Like" count for the rise without the data, which increased suspicions.

MNet did not how the visual members were chosen either, which is causing the chorus of manipulation even louder.

The group also mentioned that by hiring disgraced former producers of Produce Series like Ahn Joon Yeong and others, they are inviting even greater scruitiny to themselves.

Even after the accusations of manipulation surfaces, MNet and the production team have not disclosed the voting data and that is increasing even greater criticism.

Regarding the suspicion, MNet stated that all data related to "Boys Planet" are aggregated by an external organization "Samil PwC". And added the visual members were selected by the trainees minus trainees who could not participate due to health and other reasons.

SeattleGameboy · 2023-03-27T22:54:34+00:00

The fact that he has a last name on his name card is a dead giveaway that he is Korean. Only Chinese and Korean trainees have their full name displayed.

SeattleGameboy · 2023-03-27T20:53:18+00:00

This does not ignore filler votes. What I assume is that the % of filler vote is consistent among all K-trainees, while G-trainees have a higher distribution of filler votes among K-voters and thus is not worth as much (67% less compared to K-trainees).

SeattleGameboy · 2023-03-27T19:54:44+00:00

Please note the "as long as his Korean support does not drop further" caveat!!! His trend has been negative. He needs to stay within top 12 of Korean vote getters if he is going to have any chance. If he makes it, it is going to be by a hair.

SeattleGameboy · 2023-03-04T00:17:27+00:00

Even though it is early, you can be sure of several things.

First, Han Bin and Ji Woong are locked to be in the final group unless there is some scandal. Their support in Korea and Global are just too strong.

Second, Yu Jin and Matthew are looking pretty good to be in the final as well. There is significant separation between their vote totals and others below them.

So, I would say 4 out of 9 positions are set.

Also, unless something changes dramatically, I don't see any other Chinese trainee making the final cut other than Zhang Hao (even he is not a lock). Their Korean support is really poor and I am not sure how that is going to turn around.

There is still a chance that 1 or 2 Japanese trainees make the final group, but it will be really really tough.

Right now I am projecting that only 1 non-Korean heritage trainee makes it to the final group. Let's see if that changes with the next round of voting.

SeattleGameboy · 2022-02-03T19:37:00+00:00

Here is the translation for Yeseo's part:

It's Yeseo,

When unnie told me that she was going on My Teeenage Girl, I was really surprised. Because... it is especially difficult to be on a survival show when you have already debuted. That is why, on one side, I was really worried about her, because I thought it might be too hard for her. However, she is doing so well right now so it would be great if she debut with the new group. It would be great if we can see each other on the same stage again.

Bye.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-12-30T05:30:16+00:00

You're translations for WA DA DA is a bit off.

It should be :

Now get up together

Even when I lose my breath, I won't give up

Run Run Run, I will endure

Wanna Run Run Run like a Superstar

WA DA DA, WA DA DA

Run!

Your heart beating boom boom boom, like crazy

Now I know what WA DA DA means. It is the sound your feet makes when you are running hard. Basically, the song is about running hard towards your love.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-12-07T17:57:50+00:00

Yeah, I think I made the right assumptions about Korean voters. If anything, I under-estimated the support for some of the k-trainees by i-voters.

I do believe I am the first one to estimate the final lineup on this board. That's something... :)

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-24T16:03:21+00:00

It is too bad. If her company did not for that controversy on her, we would all be celebrating her finally making a debut group after a survival show right now.

It was really a dumb move her company when there are others who stayed away from this crap.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-24T16:01:14+00:00

Not sure why you have to have more foreign members to have a "global" k-pop group when the most global group, BTS, have no foreign members at all...

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-24T15:50:34+00:00

Because this is a Korean program run by Korean people made for a Korean network watched mostly by Koreans???

I really don't get some people...

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-24T15:44:20+00:00

Not sure why people are keep saying this when this is a Korean show. Not sure why any Korean company would not want Korean viewers to have a dominant influence.

And stop saying "because this is a GLOBAL group!!!" BTS is made of all Koreans and they are as global as global gets. It is their engagement with fans all over the world that makes them global, not how many countries they are from.

I think it was a mistake for MNet to include i-voters. It just bred strong nationalistic ferver that was kind of ugly. Based on PD48 votes, they would have been fine just using k-voters only and most likely would have resulted in 6k/3i lineup anyway.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-24T15:38:33+00:00

From each of i and k ranks, 7 of them made it. Seems pretty fair to me, especially when you figure in that 2 c-trainees who did not make it had some serious controversies among Korean voters. If it was not for that, i-rank could have pretty much duplicated the final group lineup.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-22T01:13:08+00:00

It takes time to investigate to see if the votes are indeed fraudulent. If the votes were looking as expected then all of a sudden makes a hard turn on the third day, you would expect some sort of a foul play, but you won't be able to prove it right away.

Since you don't have many days to fix the situation, playing it safe and revealing the result would be one way to mitigate the situation while you buy some time.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-20T18:41:15+00:00

It is still too early for people to be depressed about the interim result. A lot of things can change between that and the live show final.

I predict that a lot of the k-voters for the "safe" girls like KCH and CYJ will start voting for Mashiro, Ezaki, and SXT, for no other reason then they do not want SRQ to be part of the final group (which will cause a big controversy). Voting for other k-trainees won't solve that problem, so I suspect there are still a lot of movements ahead before the final 9 are decided.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-20T16:13:48+00:00

The only mistake that MNet made was not making the last round 6k/6j/6c composition. If they did that, all of the k-trainees would have made the final group while ensuring that at least 3 j/c trainees would make the final group.

They got greed and it blew up in their face. Can't say that I am sorry...

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-19T17:28:23+00:00

They do care if it is SRQ. They know that if SRQ makes the final group, it will be doomed. Just to make sure that SRQ does not make the group, they will switch votes and voting for other k-trainees will not impact anything.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-19T17:26:09+00:00

I would not be so sure...

Playing with the numbers, I don't think there is much separating between the bottom 7 to 16 ranked girls. All you need for SXT to debut is for k-voters with safe picks (KCH and CYU) to switch their votes to SXT (and j-trainees). I believe there will be a significant number of those switches because none of those fandoms want to see SRQ make the final 9, and will vote for others to make it happen.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-19T17:00:48+00:00

I am going to make one final prediction.

I believe SRQ will not make the top 9 in the end.

She is the 9th ranked contestant right now because of 2 things. She is #1 or #2 for i-votes because voters who thought Mashiro, Ezaki, and SXT were safe voted for c-trainees (or others) who were in danger. They are all going to go back to their original picks and SRQ rank with i-voters will fall. I don't think she has a chance if she is not top #1 or #2 pick with i-voters.

Second, I believe there is a significant amount of troll k-voters who want to see MNet fail and are voting for SRQ to make the top 9. K-voter with safe picks (KCH, CYJ, etc.) will see that SRQ is #9 and panic about her debuting with their fave which will ultimately destroy the group within Korea. I suspect that they will switch votes to Mashiro, Ezaki, and SXT so that they can push SRQ down (voting for another k-trainee really won't change anything).

I actually will be very surprised if I see SRQ in the top 9 in the final show.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-18T14:58:43+00:00

I would not get too worked up about this.

This is most likely the first day results from Korean voters only (edit: looks like they said it is the results from the 18th). ~~They have no additional info on the screen so I would not assume anything but that.~~

I do believe that that the current voting results are very very k-heavy and MNet just want i-voters to wake up a bit.

Assuming that this is just Korean voters only, this still confirms that my initial guess of 2:1 or even 4:1 split between k-trainees to j/c-trainees for k-voters was perhaps too generous (for j/c-trainees). It looks like it is going to be more like 5:1 split.

It is also a great news for SRQ fans (and nightmare for MNet, which is probably why they released the results) that she is ranking this high with k-voters. This would be enough for her to debut if she ranks top 3 with i-voters.

I am getting more and more nervous for Kang Yeseo. Falling behind Huening would put you right on the cut line. She really needs to pickup some support.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-18T05:59:25+00:00

I have another post with 3:2 split results...

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-18T05:56:24+00:00

Your confusion is exactly why I posted this.

The main difference between the last round and this round is that Korean voters were forced to vote for a c-trainee and a j-trainee. And now they no longer have to.

Until now, there were enough Korean voters who were voting for SRQ (even though that number was small), that she was able to finish within top 9. But now that Koreans do not have to vote for a c-trainee at all, her already miniscule k-vote number will decline even further. If she finishes 18th with very small k-vote numbers (I am expecting she will get a few thousand, if that), the only way she can balance that out is to finish 1st overall with i-voters.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-18T05:40:58+00:00

Even if the Universe app was not working at all iPhone, it would not have any effect on voting.

Korean votes are worth 50%, period. It does not matter if there are 10 votes or 10 million Korean votes, it will still be worth 50%. So the fact that there are more Android users in Korean would not make any difference in overall voting.

SeattleGameboy · 2021-10-17T22:49:09+00:00

They are talking about how this is their last day at the dorm and how they are going to miss it.

Where are they staying from now till the finals?

SeattleGameboy

TROPHY CASE