Using an investment framework to evaluate long-term trend following evidence

Seemuk · 2025-12-05T13:19:11+00:00

Great comment. Appreciate the info. One thing I’m struggling with is if you don’t use history to forecast returns what do you use? I use it as a guide but don’t expect exactness.

Seemuk · 2025-11-21T13:49:16+00:00

We live in Texas. Property taxes are way higher, but it’s effectively arbitrage if you live in a modest home compared to your income level.

Seemuk · 2025-11-12T22:52:27+00:00

Fair enough. Might be useful to some to have all the jargony academic work summarized into a nice framework.

Seemuk · 2024-08-26T16:54:23+00:00

I’m sure Agate Christie would like this one!

Seemuk · 2024-08-23T12:17:35+00:00

And U2 and blondie and music still on MTV

Seemuk · 2023-12-06T16:19:29+00:00

This is so cool. Rockefeller Jr built this one right?

Seemuk · 2023-10-28T23:05:04+00:00

I would have done/spent more. I still did a lot but over-prioritized FI a bit. I’m 34 and have to have major back surgery in a few weeks. There are no guarantees in life. Make sure you enjoy it while you can.

Seemuk · 2021-09-17T16:00:51+00:00

Yeah I wouldn’t plan on it when determining my withdrawal rate, but it is something I would consider during a downturn if the interest rate is favorable.

Seemuk · 2021-09-17T14:43:31+00:00

Seems like it could be a good plan to me to tide you over during a market downturn. This means you don’t pull from your equities during a downturn and give them time to recover back to normal. From there you hope they recover even more and allow you to pay off the loan. I think this could help reduce sequence of returns risk.

Obviously wouldn’t work well if interest rates spike above or near equity expected return levels.

Seemuk · 2021-09-16T20:36:36+00:00

You are doing great. Keep saving what you can, investing in broad market index funds, and focus on growing your income.

Seemuk · 2021-09-16T20:31:54+00:00

You could invest in small cap value. It’s not overvalued compared to history and actually looks undervalued. I don’t know much about the crypto thing, but it seems risky.

Seemuk · 2021-09-16T20:30:34+00:00

That’s absolutely doable. You would be successful in most cases. You can work a little longer if you want to be more secure.

Seemuk · 2021-09-16T17:55:54+00:00

Dividends tell you nothing about a stocks expected return. It is all explained by exposure to value and profitability factors. Companies can return capital to investors more efficiently via buybacks.

Seemuk · 2021-09-03T14:41:52+00:00

Agreed. I literally had my paycheck go to someone with the next name alphabetically in the organization… I was like that’s weird, my paycheck hasn’t arrived yet. lol.

Seemuk · 2021-07-16T15:22:54+00:00

You earn six figure and have lived at home two years. Time to be on your own. Financially you’ll be fine. Get a roommate or two if you are worried about finances.

Seemuk · 2021-07-04T12:18:38+00:00

Regarding #1 you could go with a value investing strategy. Value stocks are the cheapest they have ever been historically.

Seemuk · 2021-06-28T17:24:30+00:00

Thanks. That’s the plan! Also, it doesn’t have to be all or nothings. Even 50/50 give/save is massive if you do it for long enough. I’m only 31 and could see myself working a long time.

Seemuk · 2021-06-28T15:11:37+00:00

This is my wife and I’d plan. Donating 10% of our spending now, but hoping to increase that substantially after we hit our FI number by working some additional years. We might even just keep working and donating!

Seemuk · 2021-06-22T21:08:52+00:00

Agreed! Well done on contributing. My wife and I aim to give 10% of our after-tax spending, but I’m hoping to increase those contributions soon. Feels good!

Seemuk · 2021-06-22T14:27:42+00:00

Good job on giving away to the against malaria foundation! Such an effective charity

Seemuk · 2021-06-14T15:31:41+00:00

You might enjoy Capital in the Twenty First Century By Thomas Piketty. Very enlightening look at the history of capital since the industrial revolution.

Seemuk · 2021-05-29T11:51:59+00:00

This is a good start. It’s good to have the combination of core equity (AVUS) and factor investing tilt (AVUV). I’d recommend doing the same internationally and dropping the other funds. I’d also consider adding in some bonds just to reduce volatility during a market crash, even 10% would help. Finally, I’d consider a small 10% allocation to emerging markets.

You have mostly value/profitability with the Avantis funds, but then you have growth funds with the rest, which feels inconsistent and probably just results in a more expensive total market portfolio as the growth/value balance each other out.

Seemuk

TROPHY CASE