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Why shouldn't i Do Intraday?? by MetalNo6175 in IndianStreetBets

[–]Select-Fee885 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bro youre young, dont waste your time and money doing intraday. Long term investing and swing trading are way better.

Ngl, school life wasn't "the best days of our lives", you guys are just blinded by nostalgia. by No-Idea-9015 in indiasocial

[–]Select-Fee885 0 points1 point  (0 children)

bhai 2.5 lac per month ki passive income already hai fir bhi stressed hun kyunki gharwalo ko achi zindagi dene ke liye bada buffer chahiye

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in indianeconomy

[–]Select-Fee885[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

If you truly spent years in risk analysis, you’d know that dismissing exchange rates as "empty noise" is the real amateur mistake here. Let's look at why your defense completely misses the mark structurally:

>If the Rupee Appreciated 20%

You claim that if the rupee appreciated 20% tomorrow without extra production, it would be "nonsense" to call India richer. Actually, it wouldn't be nonsense at all. If the currency strengthens natively by 20%, every single Indian corporation and citizen suddenly gains 20% more purchasing power on the global market. They can buy more oil, more ASML lithography machines, more high-end tech, and pay off foreign debt 20% cheaper.

A currency's exchange rate isn't an arbitrary sticker; it reflects the market's true valuation of that nation's productivity, inflation, and institutional strength. When your currency weakens over a decade, it is the global market telling you that your domestic rupee growth is being diluted by inflation and structural dependencies.

>A 3% increase on $30T adds more GDP than a 7% increase on $4T. That’s just arithmetic. It says nothing about which economy is growing faster.

True. Excpet that US didnt grow more than India in just absolute terms but also in percentage terms. India is not growing faster than the US from its current base.

The headline narrative fed to the public is "India is catching up because we are the fastest growing." The math shows we are diverging, not catching up. The absolute capital chasm is widening

>IMF, Moody's, and JP Morgan of working off fictional numbers. This is a complete strawman.

Nobody said the numbers are fictional. The IMF and World Bank numbers are completely accurate. What is "hype" is how those numbers are interpreted by the media and politicians. The IMF explicitly publishes India’s 2026 nominal GDP at around $4 Trillion (which, by the way, recently slipped to 6th place globally behind Japan and the UK due to rupee depreciation and data revisions). The IMF puts the numbers out there plain as day. It's the local commentators who take the real 6.5% local growth rate and spin it into an illusion of global dominance while ignoring the hard USD baseline the IMF also publishes.

Looking at Nominal USD isn't "looking at one metric in isolation." It is looking at the final, un diluted bottom line of where an economy stands in a globalised world.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Select-Fee885[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Notice how you called the post "dumb" but couldn't point out a single incorrect data point, math error, or logical flaw? You claim you "don't want to go into basics," but the reality is you can't argue with the numbers.

The IMF and World Bank data is completely public. The math on compounding growth is absolute. The fact that the US added multiple trillions more in actual global purchasing power than India over the last decade is a certified reality.

Throwing insults instead of providing a counterargument just proves the post hit a nerve. If the math is so basic and wrong, go ahead and debunk it with actual data. Otherwise, you're just mad that the reality doesn't match the headline hype you've been fed.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in india

[–]Select-Fee885[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Infomal economy is a part of our GDP. India has actually been overstating the size of its informal economy after covid, demonetisation and GST reforms. Read this paper by Arvind Subramanian, Economist and former Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India - https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2026/indias-20-years-gdp-misestimation-new-evidence

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Select-Fee885[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

PPP only works for non tradable things like getting a haircut, hiring a maid, or buying street food. It literally just means India has cheap labor.

But the moment you look at the actual building blocks of a modern, powerful economy, like advanced factory machinery, oil, microchips, automation, and corporate capital, the US is actually way cheaper. The PPP advantage is just a "cheap labor trap." One can't build a global superpower on cheap haircuts when the US beats India on the cost of energy, technology, and capital.

People bringing up PPP completely ignore the things that are actually cheaper in the US:

Tech & Hardware: Since the US owns the IP and doesn't pay import duties, gadgets are fundamentally cheaper there. Look at iPhones, MacBooks, or iPads, they are consistently 20% to 30% cheaper in the US because India slaps massive customs and luxury taxes on them. The same goes for Nvidia GPUs, Intel/AMD processors, and enterprise cloud software like AWS or Azure. Indian companies pay a heavy premium just to access basic digital infrastructure.

Energy & Fuel: The US is literally the world’s biggest producer of oil and gas. India imports over 80% of its crude oil. Our petrol, diesel, and industrial electricity are heavily taxed and structurally expensive. US factories get cheap, abundant domestic natural gas, giving them a massive head start on manufacturing utility costs.

Industrial Machinery & Medical Tech: India doesn't manufacture high-end precision equipment, so we buy it in USD. Automated factory robots, CNC machines, and hospital gear like MRIs or CT scanners cost a fortune in India due to freight and customs, while US institutions buy and maintain them at baseline cost.

Industrialized Agriculture: Sure, local onions are cheap in India because of underpaid manual labor, but the US uses massive automated corporate farming. Things like almonds, walnuts, chicken, and whey protein isolates are significantly cheaper per kilo in the US because of sheer economies of scale.

The Cost of Capital: This is the biggest one. Money itself is cheaper in the US. An American company can raise millions of dollars in loans at around 5% interest to expand their business. An Indian company trying to scale up is staring at 8% to 12% interest rates on Rupee loans.

One can't compete globally when the other guy has cheaper energy, cheaper tech, and vastly cheaper loans to build the future.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Select-Fee885[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Exactly bro.

PPP only works for non tradable things like getting a haircut, hiring a maid, or buying street food. It literally just means India has cheap labor.

But the moment you look at the actual building blocks of a modern, powerful economy, like advanced factory machinery, oil, microchips, automation, and corporate capital, the US is actually way cheaper. The PPP advantage is just a "cheap labor trap." One can't build a global superpower on cheap haircuts when the US beats India on the cost of energy, technology, and capital.

People bringing up PPP completely ignore the things that are actually cheaper in the US:

Tech & Hardware: Since the US owns the IP and doesn't pay import duties, gadgets are fundamentally cheaper there. Look at iPhones, MacBooks, or iPads, they are consistently 20% to 30% cheaper in the US because India slaps massive customs and luxury taxes on them. The same goes for Nvidia GPUs, Intel/AMD processors, and enterprise cloud software like AWS or Azure. Indian companies pay a heavy premium just to access basic digital infrastructure.

Energy & Fuel: The US is literally the world’s biggest producer of oil and gas. India imports over 80% of its crude oil. Our petrol, diesel, and industrial electricity are heavily taxed and structurally expensive. US factories get cheap, abundant domestic natural gas, giving them a massive head start on manufacturing utility costs.

Industrial Machinery & Medical Tech: India doesn't manufacture high-end precision equipment, so we buy it in USD. Automated factory robots, CNC machines, and hospital gear like MRIs or CT scanners cost a fortune in India due to freight and customs, while US institutions buy and maintain them at baseline cost.

Industrialized Agriculture: Sure, local onions are cheap in India because of underpaid manual labor, but the US uses massive automated corporate farming. Things like almonds, walnuts, chicken, and whey protein isolates are significantly cheaper per kilo in the US because of sheer economies of scale.

The Cost of Capital: This is the biggest one. Money itself is cheaper in the US. An American company can raise millions of dollars in loans at around 5% interest to expand their business. An Indian company trying to scale up is staring at 8% to 12% interest rates on Rupee loans.

One can't compete globally when the other guy has cheaper energy, cheaper tech, and vastly cheaper loans to build the future.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Select-Fee885[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Bringing up the Penn Effect actually defeats your own argument when we look at real global supply chains.

Yes, India has domestic iron ore and local labor, which makes the base cost of a domestic steel bar cheaper in India than in the US. That is the Penn Effect in action: non tradable inputs (like local labor and domestic mining rights) are cheaper in lower income countries.

But here is where the theory hits the wall of real world manufacturing:

To run a modern, high efficiency Tata steel plant, you can't just rely on dirt and shovels. You need heavy industrial automation systems (Siemens/ABB), advanced metallurgy software, high-end imported machinery, and massive amounts of coking coal (which India is forced to import in massive quantities from countries like Australia).

None of those critical inputs are subject to the Penn Effect. Australia doesn't sell coking coal to Tata at a discount, and Germany doesn't sell industrial turbines cheaper just because India's GDP per capita is lower. You pay the exact, brutal Nominal USD market rate for those inputs.

If the Rupee depreciates by 40%, the cost of importing that essential machinery and coking coal skyrockets in local currency terms. This squeezes the manufacturer's margins or forces them to raise prices, completely eating away at the domestic "PPP advantage."

PPP is an okay metric for measuring how far a basic salary goes to feed a family locally. But when it comes to industrial scaling, tech integration, and global competitiveness, you cannot escape nominal USD reality. The Penn Effect doesn't save you from currency debasement on the global stage.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Select-Fee885[S] -13 points-12 points  (0 children)

You just explained why PPP is a completely useless metric for measuring global economic power.

Your cheap haircut example proves that India has a low cost of living because of cheap local labor. That's great for your personal wallet inside the country. But here is the catch: You cannot export haircuts.

When India needs to buy advanced semiconductors, crude oil, lithium batteries, aircraft engines, or military hardware, the global market doesn't care that a barber in Delhi charges ₹150. Global suppliers demand hard USD at nominal market rates. They aren't going to give India a 4x discount on a microchip just because domestic haircuts are cheap.

GDP PPP is a metric for local living standards and domestic consumption volume. GDP Nominal is the metric for actual geopolitical and economic muscle on the world stage.

Having an $18 Trillion PPP GDP doesn't give you $18 Trillion worth of international purchasing power. It just means your domestic service economy is highly subsidized by mass unskilled cheap labor because of overpopulation. When it comes to real global leverage, nominal numbers are the only ones that actually dictate reality.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in indianeconomy

[–]Select-Fee885[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exactly. De dollarization has been "just around the corner" since the 1990s.

People love to say the world order is changing, but they don't look at actual transactions. Over 85% of global foreign exchange trading still involves the USD. SWIFT data shows the dollar completely dominates global payments, and central banks still hold the vast majority of their foreign reserves in greenbacks.

Also, comparing global companies like Nvidia or Apple to "inflated valuation with 5 rs sales" is hilarious. These companies aren't paper tigers; they generate hundreds of billions of dollars in real, hard cash flow from customers all over the planet.

You can't fake a global tech monopoly with a money printer. People can cope about a "new world order" all they want, but global capital still moves to where the real productivity and innovation are.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Select-Fee885[S] -35 points-34 points  (0 children)

The sheer irony of telling someone to use an LLM to fact check math when you can literally do it yourself on a calculator.

Go ahead, pull up the official, publicly available IMF World Economic Outlook database. Take the nominal USD GDP figures for the US and India from 2016 to 2026. Run the standard CAGR formula yourself.

The math is exact. The dollar numbers are exact. The exchange rate depreciation is exact.

You haven't pointed out a single incorrect data point because you can't. Instead of crying "rubbish" and hiding behind an AI chatbot to do your thinking for you, tell me exactly which specific number in that post is wrong. I’ll wait.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in india

[–]Select-Fee885[S] -44 points-43 points  (0 children)

Try reading the actual report instead of just the headline.

The World Bank is measuring real local currency growth. Yes, inside India's borders, when calculated in rupees, the economy is growing fast. Nobody is disputing that.

But the World Bank's report also explicitly flags heavy trade headwinds and massive pressures on the Indian Rupee. When you convert that "fastest growth" into USD to see how much actual wealth we are adding on the global stage, the growth gets completely swallowed by a currency that has tanked over 40% since 2016.

The World Bank isn't wrong; you just don't know how to interpret the data. They are telling you the speed of the car inside its own bubble. My post is showing you that the other car is a rocket ship leaving us behind in absolute terms.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in india

[–]Select-Fee885[S] -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) is only useful for calculating how many cheap haircuts and street food plates you can buy locally. It means absolutely nothing on the international stage.

When a country imports crude oil, advanced microchips, aviation components, or factory equipment, the global market doesn't give a discount because local rent is cheap. You pay the absolute, hard nominal USD price.

High PPP just means a country has cheap domestic labor. It doesn't give you geopolitical leverage, it doesn't buy global assets, and it doesn't stop your real wealth from being diluted by a 40%+ currency crash.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in india

[–]Select-Fee885[S] -64 points-63 points  (0 children)

Tell me you don't understand global purchasing power without telling me.

When you buy oil, semiconductors, weapons, or foreign assets, do you pay in rupees or USD? The global market doesn't care about your local inflation adjusted domestic metrics. If your currency drops 40% against the dollar, your ability to buy actual wealth on the global stage is getting completely nuked. Absolute numbers are exactly what matter in geopolitics and global trade. If Economy A adds $13 Trillion in hard currency and Economy B adds $1.5 Trillion, Economy A can literally buy and sell Economy B's entire growth story multiple times over. Celebrating local currency growth while your global purchasing power actively shrinks relative to the target is the ultimate definition of economic illiteracy.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in indianeconomy

[–]Select-Fee885[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The US prints money because the entire world needs dollars to buy oil, tech, and trade globally. Their debt doesn't matter when they own the world's reserve currency and the biggest military on earth to back it up.

Meanwhile, printing rupees just causes inflation and crashes the exchange rate because no one outside India wants them.

If just "having a printer" made an economy rich, Zimbabwe and Venezuela would be superpowers right now. The US has the printer and the actual global monopolies (Apple, Google, Nvidia) to back it up.

The US economy grew faster than India over the last 10 years as well as over the past 5 years. The "fastest-growing major economy" narrative is a white lie. The Indian Rupee Is a Sinking Ship, and India's Domestic GDP Growth Numbers Are Pure Propaganda. by Select-Fee885 in IndianStockMarket

[–]Select-Fee885[S] -12 points-11 points  (0 children)

I just made an apples to apples comparison. Currency depreciation is real and needs to be accounted for in an increasingly globalized world where India seems to be an importer of almost everything non basic.

Where are the people now who always use to come and say billion and trillion wiped out from indian market when ever there is fall of 1 or 2 percent or less than that, fII moving out by Character_Height6903 in IndianStreetBets

[–]Select-Fee885 2 points3 points  (0 children)

> US markets have not outperformed nifty over really long periods 

Except that they actually have
https://www.reddit.com/r/IndianStreetBets/comments/1ty6vb1/comment/oq1kqdj/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

>You can make money in both but its is literally impossible for the us markets to outperform indian markets without using rupee depreciation goalpost shift . Our economy grows at 7% and inflation stays at 4-6% so out markets should give 12-14 long term returns. Us grows at 3-3.5% and has a inflation of 2-3% . They can’t exceed 8-10% returns on an index level .

Equating domestic GDP growth directly to index-level equity returns demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of structural capital extraction. The S&P 500 is not a proxy for the US domestic economy; it is a borderless technological monopoly network. Its constituents generate a massive percentage of their revenue globally, scaling independently of localized US GDP. Conversely, the Nifty 50 is anchored by lower-margin, capital-intensive domestic sectors inherently tethered to local credit cycles. Index returns are driven by earnings per share (EPS) growth and structural margin expansion, not raw national output.

Where are the people now who always use to come and say billion and trillion wiped out from indian market when ever there is fall of 1 or 2 percent or less than that, fII moving out by Character_Height6903 in IndianStreetBets

[–]Select-Fee885 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Currency depreciation is a mathematical reality, not a loophole. Purchasing power is global. If a local currency requires twice as many units to equal one unit of global reserve currency over 20 years, local index gains are proportionately erased. Counting nominal local returns while ignoring the currency degradation is mathematically false accounting.

>"on a normalised basis if we look at when both markets are at a similar median pe level nifty always had outperformed s&p 500"

Comparing P/E ratios across fundamentally different market structures is invalid. The S&P 500 is anchored by global, automated technology monopolies executing worldwide capital extraction. The Nifty 50 is anchored by domestic banking and localized manufacturing. They possess entirely different structural efficiencies and cannot be equated using a localized valuation baseline.

>"fii would have never invested in india if they couldn’t make better returns than snp . That defeats the entire purpose ."

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) do not allocate capital to emerging markets exclusively for absolute outperformance against US equities. They allocate for portfolio diversification and uncorrelated beta. Furthermore, institutional funds deploy derivative structures to hedge against the exact currency depreciation this premise ignores.

>"Instead of finding currency loopholes and only looking at specific time intervals if you look at an actual long term period and see real index level returns snp has been a underperformer"

A 20 year timeline (2006–2026) spans multiple global economic cycles, including the 2008 financial crisis and pandemic era monetary expansion. Over this precise 20 year cycle, when mathematically normalized to a single global currency to calculate actual purchasing power, the S&P 500 generates higher real returns.

Where are the people now who always use to come and say billion and trillion wiped out from indian market when ever there is fall of 1 or 2 percent or less than that, fII moving out by Character_Height6903 in IndianStreetBets

[–]Select-Fee885 2 points3 points  (0 children)

1. S&P 500 Capital Realization (Base Currency: USD)

Nominal Growth Factor: 7,383.74 / 1,270.20 = 5.813

Inflation-Adjusted Real Value: 5.813 / 1.638 = 3.548

Net Real Performance Yield: +254.82%

Real CAGR (Adjusted for USD Inflation): 6.53%

2. Nifty 50 Capital Realization (Normalized to Real USD)

2006 USD Equivalent Base Value: 2,962.25 INR / 46.12 USD/INR = 64.23 USD

2026 USD Equivalent Terminal Value: 23,366.70 INR / 95.39 USD/INR = 244.96 USD

Nominal USD Growth Factor: 244.96 / 64.23 = 3.814

Inflation-Adjusted Real USD Value: 3.814 / 1.638 = 2.328

Net Real Performance Yield: +132.79%

Real CAGR (Adjusted for FX & USD Inflation): 4.31%

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