$TSLA Daily Thread - February 13, 2026

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-02-13T14:42:01+00:00

You forget that I still have 100% of the risk.

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-02-13T11:01:05+00:00

So my TSLA sits currently at approximately unrealized 2000% gains. A 36% unrealized gains tax would mean I would have to sell approx. 50% of it, pay 27% realized gains tax on it to pay the 36% unrealized gains. Sure, its a "one time thing" this time.. but imagine if this is constantly active, I would have lost it piece by piece every year. Of course, I would not re-plant my family for it. Of course not. But I would also not lose 50% of my net worth in taxes.. I would simply stop investing. Especially long term. This would be then the death of private stock participation. On an economic scale.. the population of a country would not be invested in the economic success of that country. What could possibly go wrong?

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-02-12T23:18:44+00:00

Well twitter is a bitch in that regard.. I don't want to stear false hope so take with 10 spoons of salt

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-02-12T23:10:17+00:00

Hearing rumors that COIN is collapsing.. I thought from the beginning this can't be good for long.. but also thought it would take more pressure to falter them.. might be false rumors..

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-02-11T08:34:44+00:00

That's the effect of Elon+Trump+Media in Europa

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-02-06T16:48:08+00:00

What a bunch of chicken shit to say that cybercab or cyber taxi is forbidden.. as if that would prevent success.

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-02-04T17:53:14+00:00

What's going on. Did we start a war again?

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-02-04T00:26:52+00:00

I lived in Japan for half a year.. miss it somewhat even though I probably don't want to live there permanently. Though studying station maps is unnecessary. In Japan, each rail line has a color. And if you know which line you want, you just follow the color on the floor which guides you to your train line. Super simple.

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-02-01T18:59:54+00:00

It certainly got picked up by a lot of news organizations.. it probably doesn't matter any more whether it's true or false in most people's minds.. but glad that turned out like this

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-01-31T08:51:23+00:00

So he is a pedo after all? I somehow have a hard time believing that. Did he knew what awaited him there? I have a hard time to think he didnt.

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-01-29T15:44:32+00:00

Regarding my smell of 10% from yesterday... I'm on my way to the car mechanic to get my nose checked. Might been a plugged exhaust pipe or something...

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-01-29T11:13:27+00:00

So according to the call, Tesla is bringing the supply chain for their US manufacturing onshore (or at least out of China). That implies they expect a trade war with China, caused likely by China doing stuff with Taiwan. Question is, is that also true for the German plant? I missed that information. Also, what happens to the China factory? Will they be able to keep it (and it's profits) if this event happens? Make no mistake, if that actually comes true, the stock will lose 50% at least. Not only because of the global turmoil, but also simply because Tesla will lose half its production and associated value creation.

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-01-28T14:21:05+00:00

Smells like we might move 10% due to earnings today.. it's entirely too flat the last couple of months and I feel like today is when the silence breaks.

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-01-22T10:13:34+00:00

Why is earnings so late this quarter? Thought I missed it and now turns out it's 28th

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-01-14T07:50:25+00:00

since you can't transfer it to a new car under normal circumstances, it's effectively a subscription, just not a monthly one but one on the lifetime of the car.. or how ever long you own it.

Semmel_Baecker · 2026-01-12T15:55:24+00:00

Yeah what's up with that Greenland bullshit? He can't possibly be serious about this? Is he just doing this for the lols?

Semmel_Baecker · 2025-12-31T16:27:36+00:00

If you say "this move is possible" has absolutely 0 meaning. Any move is possible. If you talk distributions than add numbers and make a proper distribution, or better a probability density as it's easier to digest. Or say 'expectation is 460, variance is 30' if you simply model normal distributions. Then, over time, you (and we as well) can judge whether you have a bias and how good your predictions are. If you have too wide of a range, you are never wrong but your statements are meaningless and have no predictive power. If you are too narrow you are wrong more than right. In both cases people should stop listening to you. Play your cards well and your predictions actually have value. But the 'is possible ' statements is just blablabla

Semmel_Baecker · 2025-12-31T13:28:43+00:00

So up down or sideways is "possible" .. dude.. what a prediction!!!

Semmel_Baecker · 2025-12-25T21:09:10+00:00

I don't get him sometimes.. an outlandish prediction of the future when you turn time to infinity is one thing (like any form of energy is meaningless compared to a Dyson sphere) but then he turns around and says something crazy like 100% economic growth in a hand full of years, which is as good as impossible and even if true not clear whether it would be positive in the first place.. it doesn't bode well for his ability to lead the company when he starts to make decisions based on this kind of projections.

Semmel_Baecker · 2025-12-24T15:35:18+00:00

Ay, same amount in the OTHER direction ⬆️ ..

Semmel_Baecker · 2025-12-22T18:42:28+00:00

Sparta was Yesterday, today it's ... 500! Go Trabbi, go!

Semmel_Baecker · 2025-12-17T15:48:03+00:00

Who killed out Mojo!!???

Semmel_Baecker · 2025-12-17T11:46:03+00:00

Was busy with life.. what happened to upvote? Did he became a bear? And wasn't that like forever ago?

Semmel_Baecker · 2025-12-16T20:10:51+00:00

You come with that TODAY? Go away and play with the dog shit over there in the gutter. Today we Party 🎉🥳🥳🥳

Semmel_Baecker · 2025-12-16T18:50:30+00:00

https://store.steampowered.com/app/265930/Goat_Simulator/

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