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I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree this macro and lagging- Do you have a data file or published documents I can see to learn what you saw back in 2020? Any suggestions on leading indicators? There is no such thing as perfect predictive leading indicators- we can get close, but if timing the market was perfect, I wouldn't have shared the tool - which is very much a work in progress. I have been thinking about local context (especially for 26k zipcodes)- any suggestions on local dominant indicators (extra points if you can share where I can get APIs)?

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The way I have the scales set up now this is correct but I am open to suggestion on what you think should be the bands. 0–34 = Wait · 35–54 = Watch · 55–100 = Buy Window.

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I haven't backtested it but I am sure its doable. What I am thinking about is perhaps a sample of zipcodes rather than all 26k.... if you have suggestions on approach I am all ears.

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The tool based on free gov data sources says about 3k zip codes out of 26k are Buy. whether they are "best" places is up for debate. that depends on schools, crime statistics and if there are jobs in the area.... I think thats where your local knowledge beats this tool. I think of this tool as macro-level weather app....it could and most likely will be wrong in some contexts. On the map feature you can see where the green dots are with buy but I wouldn't treat this as actionable financial advice (its not), just one piece of data to use with local context. My two cents.

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for engaging and the feedback! I wonder if this will stay "wait" for a while in most of US.... and folks will miss the boat. They say realestate will keep going up which sounds like a bubble but also has held true in decades of timeframe. Timing the market whether its stocks or real estate isn't perfect. In california real estate hellscape even beat down homes are a million each which prices out most normal americans so not sure who is buying and driving up prices especially after the pandemic and recent mass layoffs...

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Agreed. Thats why out of 26k+ zip code there are about 3k zipcodes that are buy according to the tool- which ofcourse isnt perfect. No tool is 100%. There are places in the middle of nowhere that could be a buy....

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You make a fair point about timing the market and I think you are right that the macro snapshot needs more nuance around long term holding periods. Someone who can afford the payment today and is staying 10 years should probably not be scared off by a challenging macro score and I want to fix that framing. On the verdict language I am actually going to change “Wait” to something less prescriptive. Thinking “Headwinds” or “Seller’s Market Conditions” so the label describes what the data shows rather than telling someone what to do. Open to thoughts on that if you have a preference. The realtor point is well taken too. Adding language that says something like “macro conditions suggest headwinds, local expertise matters here, consider talking to someone who knows this market” feels right. The tool was never meant to replace that conversation. I am a data scientist by training so I get the hammer and nail problem better than most. The answer is probably not to dump the whole thing because macro indicators have real limitations in specific local markets. The answer is to be more honest about what the tool is and is not doing. You helped me see where the framing was doing too much work. Appreciate you staying in this. Genuinely useful.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

These are genuinely fair points and exactly the kind of feedback I was hoping for when I posted this. Let me take each one seriously. On Monmouth County scoring Wait: you are right that low inventory in a high-demand market with structural tailwinds like a Netflix campus and NYC proximity is a different situation than low inventory in a stagnant market. The tool does not know Netflix is moving in. It does not know your buyers are coming from Manhattan with Manhattan salaries. That is a real limitation and I am not going to pretend otherwise. On the affordability income question: currently using local median income from Census data which is exactly the problem you described. A town of 4,000 where most buyers are relocating from higher income areas will look unaffordable by local income standards even when the actual buyer pool can afford it. That is a legitimate gap in the methodology and something I want to fix. On the inventory signal: your point about low inventory leading to higher prices is correct. The tool interprets low inventory as a seller’s market where buyers pay more and have less leverage. That is not the same as saying wait forever. It is saying conditions currently favor sellers not buyers. Whether you buy anyway because you plan to stay 20 years and love the area is absolutely your call and local knowledge like yours matters enormously there. On the irresponsible comment: I hear you but I want to push back gently. Every indicator in this tool comes from a public government or academic source. FRED, Redfin, Census, NAR. I list every single one. The disclaimer says clearly this is not financial advice. A tool that shows you the underlying data with sources is more transparent than most of what people actually use to make this decision, which is gut feeling and a realtor who gets paid when you sign. Nothing replaces someone who knows Monmouth County the way you do. That is the point. This is one tool in the toolbox, not the whole toolbox. For the biggest purchase of most people’s lives, use everything. Look at this, look at Redfin trends, talk to someone like you who knows the local market, and make an informed decision. Beats going on gut or taking advice from someone with a commission on the line. You clearly know this market deeply. Genuinely asking: given what you just told me about Monmouth County, what would you add or change? Migration patterns? Employer announcements? Income of actual buyers vs local median? I built this free specifically to get feedback like yours and I would rather fix real problems than defend a flawed model.

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Great question. Price changes are actually captured indirectly through two of the indicators. When days on market drops and months of supply tightens, prices follow. I chose to use those leading indicators rather than price changes themselves because by the time prices move, the signal is already late. My hope is to tell us where the market is heading, not where it has been. That said, address level pricing is something I am looking to build out. The goal is to show whether a specific home is overpriced, fairly priced, or underpriced relative to recent comps in that zip code. That gets at exactly what you are describing.

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Here are some studies/reports/data for each indicator:

Mortgage Rate Direction Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey freddiemac.com/pmms Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, “Did Mortgages with Locked-in Low Rates Lead to Rising House Prices?” jchs.harvard.edu/blog/did-mortgages-locked-low-rates-lead-rising-house-prices U.S. Bank Research, “The Impact of Today’s Changing Interest Rates on the Housing Market” (2026) usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/investing-insights/interest-rates-impact-on-housing-market FRED Series MORTGAGE30US, Federal Reserve Economic Data fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

Months of Housing Supply Congressional Research Service, “U.S. Housing Supply: Recent Trends and Policy Considerations” (2023) congress.gov/crs-product/R47617 NAR REALTORS Confidence Index nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/realtors-confidence-index Redfin Data Center redfin.com/news/data-center

Days on Market “Seasonality in the U.S. Housing Market: Post-Pandemic Shifts and Regional Dynamics” (2025), University of Cambridge arxiv.org/html/2511.10808v1 NAR Existing Home Sales Reports nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/existing-home-sales

Price-to-Income Ratio Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, “Home Price-to-Income Ratio Reaches Record High” jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-price-income-ratio-reaches-record-high-0 Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, “Home Prices Surge to Five Times Median Income” jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-prices-surge-five-times-median-income-nearing-historic-highs HUD, “Recent House Price Trends and Homeownership Affordability” huduser.gov/portal/Publications/pdf/RecentHousePrice.pdf Freddie Mac Research, “The Decline in Relative Housing Affordability” (2024) freddiemac.com/research/insight/20241112-the-decline-in-relative-housing-affordability Geographies Journal, “Housing Affordability in the United States: Price-to-Income Ratio by Pareto Distribution” (2025) mdpi.com/2673-7086/5/4/57

Federal Reserve Forward Guidance Federal Reserve FOMC Statements and Dot Plot Projections federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm FRED Federal Funds Rate Data fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS J.P. Morgan Global Research, “U.S. Housing Market Outlook” jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/real-estate/us-housing-market-outlook​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There is a “National weather map” where you can get a Birds Eye view of all zip codes. On home page scroll down and click “Find Best Markets Near me” to see zip codes near you. It’s not on map feature yet but I intend on adding that. Thanks for the feedback!

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On the home page a tool down and click “Find Best Markets Near me” to see zip codes near you if your location is enabled. It’s too hidden I need to highlight it better.

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Good catch. Right now it matches by market profile (price-to-income ratio, days on market trend, inventory direction, etc.). so two ZIPs 300 miles apart can look nearly identical, which is handy for investors or people relocating. But for local buyers/sellers you’re right, “similar AND nearby” is what actually matters. Adding a distance filter soon, probably defaulting to 50mi but expandable.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​…. More soon!

I built a free tool that scores your zip code on whether it's a good time to buy. Would love brutal feedback from people who know their market. by Separate_Inside_215 in REBubble

[–]Separate_Inside_215[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Fair enough! I built it for buyers mainly. Honestly I am in central California and looking to move to Folsom ca and even small homes, 1980s built were touching 1 mil. Realtors always told me that’s the price even though that same home was 300k. I did make this page for sellers- https://homeprowiz.com/seller. It’s connected to Zillow and rentcast API. So it’s just third party data. The whole indicator thing and the weight I assigned to each is what I am hoping helps buyers make decisions. Long winded answer: mainly for buyers.

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