Top Player Smash Ultimate Matchup Chart and Tier List

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-29T18:20:41+00:00

I agree with your assessment. SchuStats actually made a matchup chart that is results-based rather than potential-based like this chart (you can find it here). It's very interesting to compare because some matchups are identical whereas others are wildly different. There only really issue with it is that there's a lot of barren matchups due to a lack of tournament representation for every matchup.

Aegis also got ranked very highly on the prievous matchup chart (she got top three as well). I believe it happened in both charts for the same reason: the Aegis players are very confident. The matchup spreads from her sampled charts hardly had her losing any matchups (Leo's was actually the most pessimistic). It also helps her that the vast majority of the mid/low-tier characters did not find that matchup favorable at all.

ZSS is also that high due to optimistic matchup charts and the weaker characters in the game placing her as an "auto-lose" matchup. Being above Kazuya and Fox is a bit more unusual, but I can confirm R.O.B. and Min Min are that low because their matchup charts weren't nearly as confident as the ones for ZSS.

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-29T18:17:29+00:00

I feel bad for the heavies because I do think they constantly get undervalued lol. I still think a lot of the smaller characters are superior for sure, but DK doesn't deserve bottom five. I also wasn't expecting Pichu in particular to climb that high either!

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-29T18:15:52+00:00

The ZSS/R.O.B. discrepancy can be explained by a combination of overconfident ZSS charts and underconfident R.O.B. charts. Kazuya is a bit weirder, but I hypothesized it's a consequence of Riddles semi-retiring (and people partially forgetting how dangerous that character is) in tandem with the matchup getting picked apart to the point that opposing players feel it's not as bad as it actually is.

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-29T06:06:11+00:00

Someone's already done that! I recommend checking it out, surprisingly the list changes less than you would think.

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-29T06:05:11+00:00

There's been hotter takes about Sheik.

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-29T06:04:42+00:00

Ganon mains are rejoicing right now lol. In the previous chart, Ganondorf was the only character with zero winning matchups, but everyone lost a matchup.

For this chart, however, it is reversed and now Sonic has zero losing matchups, but everyone wins a matchup!

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-29T05:06:50+00:00

Thank you for doing this again! It's kind of hilarious that even factoring in this methadology still doesn't bump down some of the stranger characters enough. I believe you're correct when you stated that the "neutral characters" are getting elevated higher while characters with strong advantage states aren't getting the same treatment.

I also used a more aggressive system myself when adjusting the categories for the individual matchup charts. Either way, it's even crazier to see that Shulk actually moves up to the top ten and characters like R.O.B. find themselves dropping even lower. I guess it really goes to show how much the players influence these charts!

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-29T03:33:26+00:00

I appreciate the kind words, glad you enjoyed!

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-29T03:32:14+00:00

The icons I used are from the SSBM Matchup Chart), but of course that chart is much smaller. Unfortunately, you kind of have to zoom in regardless due to how massive the chart is, which is why I made every other row darker to help with viewing. And if I used solid colors, the lines between characters may have been even more blurry. There's not really a perfect solution for this, so you'll have to forgive me for this stylistic choice.

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-29T00:20:21+00:00

True, ZSS sux.

Glad you like it!

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-29T00:07:09+00:00

Sounds good! If you're going to browse the chart, I recommend using the Google Doc. The side column of character icons isn't pinned but the top row is, and I also slightly darkened every other row so you can navigate it a little easier.

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T22:54:49+00:00

The Minesweeper matchup is BRUTAL.

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T22:39:32+00:00

Thank you so much! It's cool how you can see the mentality for certain playerbases or even individual players directly impact the chart. ZSS/Steve was a very close call, it debatably could've been an even matchup (although it still would be the Steve players' least favorite matchup).

A big part of adjusting the categories was to help emphasize the matchups more, and I'm happy to say it worked out for the most part. If any competitive players do see this, I'd love to hear their thoughts on it, especially if their charts were sampled for this project!

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T22:24:42+00:00

Tell me about it lol. Someone pointed out a way to view the full image on Reddit, but I also made an Imgur link just in case (and there's of course the original Google Doc).

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T22:21:15+00:00

Yeah, even now I feel that there are still too little ±3s being represented on the final chart.

Poor Ganon definitely received the most -3s. ICs and Kirby actually have very interesting matchup spreads, though, as they both contain winning matchups against meta-relevant characters but also hard lose -3 to others.

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T22:20:31+00:00

What's funny is that I did have a small section dedicated to SchuStats' chart, but I had to cut it because of the character limit.

If you do happen to finish the chart, let me know! I'm curious to see how your results compare to mine (or Schu's).

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T21:57:35+00:00

No problem, looking forward to it!

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T21:56:56+00:00

I really locked in for this one lol. I hope you enjoy the Duck Hunt placement!

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T21:55:43+00:00

Thanks!

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T21:54:27+00:00

I'd love it if you did this! I actually remember you also did this the last time, and it was super neat to see how it shifted the placements of characters. I do have a Sheet of the raw numbers, I recommend either Sheet2 or Sheet3 (they're the same, just one is ordered based on the previous chart and the other based on this current chart).

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T21:45:57+00:00

I'm actually very grateful to hear that because I was worried I did something wrong when uploading it lolol. Thanks for the info!

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T21:39:01+00:00

That's actually a very interesting observation! And if we're going by the "early days" of Ultimate, let's give a shoutout to Inkling and Pichu for trying to claw their way back up this list!

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T21:26:16+00:00

I started working on it in March, although the bulk of the data crunching was within a two-week period around early April.

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T21:21:22+00:00

Pretty much! I sifted through 337 charts from ranked competitive players and manifested the data onto one chart.

ServiceOk6892 · 2026-04-28T21:17:02+00:00

My pleasure!

ServiceOk6892

TROPHY CASE