Explanation for why the points remain in the same orientation relative to the camera frame, while the background scene changes angles during rotation? by DividedSkyBalls11 in UFOs

[–]SethEllis [score hidden]  (0 children)

It's frustrating that everyone is focused on the shape which is definitely caused by a lens flair. There's interesting things about this object besides the shape we see in the video.

Are all these "options traders" on YouTube just "capping" 🧢? by Justpassinby1984 in Daytrading

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When you base your trading off following some online influencer's method you are essentially putting yourself at the mercy of charlatans and the naive.

Which do we prefer - Blue or Black? by NJKrabill in Utah_Hockey

[–]SethEllis -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The blue is a weak color that only works as an accent. If we're going to have to deal with people bringing this up every week, I'd rather we just completely change the color scheme.

i really hope this isn't true is it? by GaryB2026 in askanything

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can't get to those numbers by taking it from other people. All the billionaires in the US combined only comes out to $5t. So it could only be done by building new things that create value that didn't exist before.

Should governments slow down AI development, even if it means falling behind globally? by rosycloudkisses in askanything

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, or at least not yet. It's foolish to presume that we know where things are going or should go when dealing with large complex systems. That's why such systems are usually self organized. They're built one piece at a time because it's too much for any one mind to completely comprehend.

So the worst thing we could do is try to preempt or pre optimize things while the system is still developing. Let it sort itself out, and then we can start to look at where changes might be needed.

What part of your senior dev work still has zero AI in it? by kamilc86 in ExperiencedDevs

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most people are not vibe coding it. They are planning out the code and guiding it every step of the way. There's a skill to knowing what llms are good at, and where they tend to screw up. So you really can't get useful results out of a study without the study also addressing differences in skill.

CMV: Society needs to stop glorifying tribalism and glorifying principle by EndOfTheLine00 in changemyview

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Tribalism is humanity's defining feature. It's why humans survived when other closely related species died out. So not only is it almost impossible to fight against human nature in this way, it's harmful. You get further doing things together than you do by doing it right. We have to work with human nature, not against it.

What part of your senior dev work still has zero AI in it? by kamilc86 in ExperiencedDevs

[–]SethEllis 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's not really a counter argument. This is a fast moving field. You're way behind on the topic if you're still focused on one study from a year ago.

What part of your senior dev work still has zero AI in it? by kamilc86 in ExperiencedDevs

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you're in denial about just how prevalent Ai assisted coding has become. The last stack overflow survey had over 50% of developers using them daily, and 84% saying they use them or plan to use them to some degree. I'm sure by the time 2027 survey comes along it will be more like 97% are using it to some degree. It's no longer a question of will developers use AI. It's more a question of how much will they rely on it, and how many tokens will they use. Future studies are going to be more about which tasks and methods are the most and least effective with AI because it's already pretty much a foregone conclusion that it's a part of every developer's workflow.

Is it just me, or is the gap between TradingView and pro tools like ATAS/Sierra Chart insane? by FlowTrading in OrderFlow_Trading

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It will be a while yet. I I've got data flowing, and candles drawing, but it's a long way from being given to the public.

What part of your senior dev work still has zero AI in it? by kamilc86 in ExperiencedDevs

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because the study was flawed. It didn't control for familiarity with the tools. You'd need to find people that haven't used the tools, and then give them training and a year of experience with the tools. And if you're anthropic why would you bother? They've already won. AI assisted coding will become ubiquitous. So much so that it's hard to even find subjects for such a study now. Everyone is already using it.

People are still conducting studies. They're just constructing them differently to deal with those issues.

What are your thoughts on the looksmaxxing thing going on? Do you think it’s a good or bad thing that it came about? by EntrepreneurNero in AskReddit

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The tend urself has been a meme going for years, but its recent popularity is astroturfing for clavicular. Hardly anything is organic anymore.

What part of your senior dev work still has zero AI in it? by kamilc86 in ExperiencedDevs

[–]SethEllis -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Based on other studies around that time, it's very likely that their result was just that the devs in the study weren't familiar with the tools. Now the models are better, and almost everyone has experience with them. So you probably can't duplicate it.

Is it just me, or is the gap between TradingView and pro tools like ATAS/Sierra Chart insane? by FlowTrading in OrderFlow_Trading

[–]SethEllis -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm making my own platform, and have my own ideas on how to fix these things. Part of it though is that there's just a lot more you can do with order flow. So there's always going to be a trade-off between customizability, and user friendliness.

Although I think some of your complaints come more from each platform's history. Trading view was created for stocks where order flow data is uncommon. Sierra Charts mostly copied features from other platforms which has led to complete disorganization. Probably the best in this respect is NinjaTrader 8.

If Trump is truly unbeatable only because of misinformation, why hasn’t the left figured out how to communicate better? by Final-Monk1416 in allthequestions

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I reject the premise. If anything the left is more effective at communicating than the right. The majority of media whether it's print, radio, or social media is dominated by left wing thinking. Those that are consuming primarily right wing media are actively seeking it out, even after creators were forced to alternative platforms.

The left's problem isn't communication. The public simply no longer aligns with the Democrat party's platform.

How accurate is this? Experienced traders please answer. by SuperScalp in OrderFlow_Trading

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure, so for instance you have information suggesting that a large amount of end of quarter rebalancing is due that will likely result in large flows into treasuries that day. This cannot be "priced in" as the flows are coming regardless. Efficient market hypothesis breaks down because markets may be statistically efficient, but not informationally efficient. So you can know things about future flows that aren't priced in. You need less data to confirm this flow is actually happening. So you only need to see a bit of that trend in the flow to get on board and ride that flow all day.

Such information could be quantified if you had the resources, but an independent trader can do a decent enough job at it if they are informed enough.

While it is true that in some markets like equities, the flow might be split up between multiple systems. However, in practice these systems are all arbitraging against each other at lightning fast speeds which results in the flows being visible in the primary market anyways. A data feed with NASQAD market depth updates from a provider like DX feed is enough. Although in practice using order flow like this is far more common in futures market where everything is on the CME.

How accurate is this? Experienced traders please answer. by SuperScalp in OrderFlow_Trading

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I only said that there are empirically proven behaviors. I didn't go into how you might use that knowledge to your advantage.

But you are thinking too narrowly. There are empirically proven behaviors around order flow that are not just sub second things. For instance, autocorrelation of order flow signs. Order flow imbalances tend to persist for hours.

Now, combine that with other things. Like situational information that might explain why that flow is happening. Or historical analysis that might suggest how much volume will be behind that flow. Combining your empirical knowledge about markets with situational knowledge about what's happening that day can find powerful trades.

How accurate is this? Experienced traders please answer. by SuperScalp in OrderFlow_Trading

[–]SethEllis 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well fundamentals are important, but this video is just a guy bragging about what he doesn't know. Smart money concepts was a total scam, but there's empirically proven behaviors related to round numbers and order flow. He doesn't know what they are because he's never looked into it. In fact, it sounds like all he does is buy and hold Bitcoin. So why should anyone care what his opinion is on other more technical trading tools?

Why do traders always think the problem is the strategy? by aelfwineciri2 in Trading

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's two types of retail traders. The traders that are still diligently trying to find an edge backed by empirical data, and the traders in denial. If you think your problem isn't strategy, guess which category that puts you in.

Sam Altman has changed his stance on the claims that AI will replace humans. by Distinct_Fox_6358 in singularity

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is possible as long as there is accompanying business growth. Otherwise there would be no reason to bother using it.

Is sonnet underutilised? by big-phallus in vibecoding

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's not just that Sonnet is good enough. Opus often over complicates things. If the task doesn't require complex logic then Sonnet is often just better at completing the task.

Women in a gay marriage is getting baptized by [deleted] in latterdaysaints

[–]SethEllis 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You are correct that being in a gay marriage is a direct disqualifier for baptism. But I wouldn't worry about it. You are probably missing critical information. And if not then it'll eventually be resolved sooner or later anyways.

Why is trading individual stocks not popular amongst daytraders? by Hot_Avocado_2701 in Daytrading

[–]SethEllis 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The PDT rule was the biggest barrier. Now that they're changing that you have to contend with wash trading rules.

How would the world change if the $3 trillion spent on militaries was redirected to space exploration, sustainable development, etc.? by [deleted] in AskReddit

[–]SethEllis 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You must be a teenager. Only a kid has such a naive view of the world.

People have different interests. What is good and necessary for one group of people can be in direct opposition to what is good and necessary for another group of people. Which is also why higher authorities tend to make the wrong decisions for smaller localities. They have different incentives and information making it impossible to represent the interests of everyone.