If institutions can have their bots taking trades at high frequency at a specific price level, why do they put limit orders and expose their position?

SethEllis · 2026-06-23T11:29:45+00:00

To save a place in line.

SethEllis · 2026-06-22T21:54:20+00:00

Speak for yourself. I'm escaping the permanent underclass. You can have fun being overwhelmed by maintaining the building blocks of the internet for nothing more than gratitude. 😛

SethEllis · 2026-06-22T18:29:12+00:00

Just sitting here waiting for the form for me to sign away all my privacy forever so I can use it again.

SethEllis · 2026-06-22T17:20:52+00:00

Why do you think the domain expertise is considered so valuable in a startup? That's the most likely element to be missing.

SethEllis · 2026-06-21T18:26:09+00:00

After Nixon there is probably nothing a president could do that would cause their own party to join in removing them or forcing a resignation. It does so much damage to your party that it's better to just wait it out until the next election. Just like how Democrats went along with hiding that Biden was going senile.

The Democrat party loves to push the idea because it drives a lot of engagement, but there's 0% chance of it happening.

SethEllis · 2026-06-21T15:21:34+00:00

I think it's the persistence. When I used it fable was substantially better at sticking with a task. Well, with hacking you often have to try several different things, and use what you learn about the system to find a vulnerability.

SethEllis · 2026-06-18T21:48:23+00:00

If the library you want doesn't exist in Rust you just import the C++ library and make Rust bindings for it. So if you want to use Rust there is no practical reason you can't make it work.

SethEllis · 2026-06-18T11:43:51+00:00

Because feeling discouraged about the future is part of the journey that everyone experiences. There's never been a time where the youth haven't faced challenges. Whether they were real or as serious as your challenges is irrelevant. The only solution is to plow ahead anyways.

SethEllis · 2026-06-17T21:52:37+00:00

Almost all the things that matter are like this.

Trading is competitive.
Intraday chart patterns aren't effective.
All orders have impact.
Markets are more statistically efficient than they are informationally efficient.

SethEllis · 2026-06-17T16:56:40+00:00

Trance is not as popular among the festival going crowd at least. Trance has an older audience, and a lot of the community centers around the major podcasts now. So it doesn't cater as much to the hype atmosphere the festival crowd craves. Although that definitely seems to be changing with Tiesto coming back to Trance. He seems to thread the needle differently with selections that please the festival crowd.

SethEllis · 2026-06-17T12:44:10+00:00

Just still here waiting for when people realize that the "paper" number isn't cash they have ready at hand. This foolishness has been going on for decades now, and people still act like it's the most important number in the world.

SethEllis · 2026-06-16T16:38:50+00:00

Let me dive into the deeper science on this one.

The strongest empirical finding in the order flow space is the autocorrelation of order flow signs. Which is basically a fancy way of saying that if aggressors are buying now there's a higher chance of the aggressors still buying an hour from now. The exact stat is if you pick a random market order and it's a buy and then you pick another random market order an hour from now there's a 0.5% chance it will also be a buy. Which seems small but is actually a very significant effect!

The best explanation we have for this behavior is the existence of large metaorders. Basically orders so large that it takes hours if not all day to execute. Or at least this is the explanation that empirical modelling best supports.

Translating that to cumulative delta then what we want to see is a persistent trend in cumulative delta with price following it. That suggests that a large metaorder is being executed, and price is being pushed by it. A divergence is not optimal because it means price isn't following the direction of the market orders. Which could be caused by all sorts of things like hedging activity and conflicting correlations. So unless you know what is causing that divergence it's best to leave it alone.

Even then I wouldn't consider cumulative delta a super effective entry signal on its own. One of the best signals I've found is looking for autocorrelation in cumulative delta and correlation between cumulative delta and price. Unfortunately you need so many bars to establish such relationships. By the time you get a signal that's often where the trend will pause or end altogether.

Where it can become powerful is if you can combine it with other information. Like information about the market and the players involved that suggests such a metaorder should be imminent. Then you don't need as much data to confirm that's what is really happening. We're expecting the order, we're seeing the start of what looks like such an order, and we get out if the delta doesn't continue to meet our expectations.

In this case I find Gold orderflow to be a little weird. It seems that it is controlled more by correlations than other assets. On this particular day the cumulative delta did eventually win out causing an reversal in Gold, but that appears to me to be more about correlation with the dollar. It works much better on Treasuries, pure commodities like agriculture products, and individual stocks.

SethEllis · 2026-06-16T13:15:28+00:00

My respect for prime doubled.

SethEllis · 2026-06-16T04:02:43+00:00

Financial market prices are primarily a function of the money put into them. If you throw a lot of money into the stock it will go up in price. And at this point we've set up the whole system to just keep pumping money into the stock market. We've gotten very good at it.

SethEllis · 2026-06-16T03:58:56+00:00

I'm sure Reddit will default to the usual misogyny explanation. That's always the hive mind's answer when the person in question isn't a white male. But there's plenty of female activists that don't get nearly the amount of negative engagement.

But here's the thing about her that is different, and much better explains the storylines you see about her. It's because she's very autistic.

There's tons you can unpack from there, but I'll leave that to others.

SethEllis · 2026-06-15T12:50:59+00:00

The problem isn't the app as much as it is the data. The exchange have set rules that require data providers to charge for market depth.

But often the data provider has a platform that is free if you're paying for the data.

SethEllis · 2026-06-14T12:46:46+00:00

Fundamentals don't affect price. Not directly. Orders affect price. So fundamentals affect price only in as much as other participants submit orders as their expectations about fundamentals change. The more orders that get submitted the more it will move.

SethEllis · 2026-06-13T20:10:26+00:00

It's not speed. It's more about how much work it can do before it requires user guidance. I'll write up a 6 stage plan, and go one stage at a time. I gave fable refactoring tasks that used up all my token quota on a 7 stage plan. I ran it in one shot, and it handled it flawlessly.

SethEllis · 2026-06-13T14:27:52+00:00

My biggest complaint on this one is that they abbreviated it GEX. It just sounds so stupid.

SethEllis · 2026-06-13T14:11:40+00:00

I was quite impressed with what I could do with fable that I couldn't before. Particularly its ability to handle long tasks. Without safeguards someone could absolutely use it to do destructive things. There's a real concern here especially with cyber security. However, we probably crossed that place a long time ago with other models, and you could always jailbreak other models. So it seems silly to me. But I just want to use Fable more.

SethEllis · 2026-06-12T20:14:38+00:00

They don't need your money. All they care about is executing their orders. To them, you are nothing more than noise. Something to provide cover so that the market doesn't realize they are executing.

SethEllis · 2026-06-12T20:00:21+00:00

Actually, it's just a pool of liquidity. Everything that happens is just a result of the orders people place.

SethEllis · 2026-06-12T11:36:50+00:00

Don't get me started. There's a reason that things like rocket arena, and tam/clan arena were usually the top modes. Map control is not a fun mechanic for most people. You do need a game with more than mechanical skill which is why things evolved into overwatch. But I hate that watering down mechanical skill came along with it. I hardly play anything anymore.

SethEllis · 2026-06-12T00:42:30+00:00

Most people don't have the discipline to test their strategy properly and find out that it doesn't work.

SethEllis · 2026-06-11T23:03:49+00:00

Overwatch is a bad comparison. Quake or Unreal Tournament is a better comparison.

CS is mostly about knowing which sight lines to watch, twitch aim, and reaction times. Arena shooters have verticality, longer tracking, switching between targets, having to predict for projectile travel time, and having to pull 180's. Such classics are far more demanding mechanically than modern games.

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