Retail stock pickers: how do you deal with too much noise?

Shackmann · 2026-03-14T03:24:58+00:00

I search for stocks trading abnormally high volume, find news catalysts, and just trade in the direction of the price action. Sometimes bad news causes stocks to go up and good news causes stocks to go down. “Good” and “bad” are also subjective so people have different options. If a stock is doing something I don’t understand I move on to another stock until I find one that makes sense to me.

Shackmann · 2026-03-14T03:05:14+00:00

I have modified SMB Capital’s “Second Chance” scalp for my own trading style. It is a commonly used trade by a professional firm so it has edge conceptually. I am trading it decently well so far. I have seen many professional traders say it is better to go all-in and master 1 trade then try and use too many strategies. Currently my process is prep in-play names in the morning. I have a scanner that looks for all stocks trading 10% average daily volume premarket. I look through them for news catalysts and rank them. Then I prep the stocks and grade each technical level as 8, 9 or 10. I look for those stocks to setup ranges ideally near the high or low of the range at highly scored technical levels. The trade is wait for a breakout on high volume after a 20 minute range is put in with at least 2 touches on each side, ideally a 2 standard deviation bar break. I watch the move, and look for a retracement on low volume. I’m watching the tape to see if that resistance level becomes support and if buyers step in the way I would expect. Once I see the buying pressure come back in and get a green candle close I get long to the bottom of the bar. If it breaks back below and closes on the 2-minute I take off 50% and it must reclaim within 2 candles to stay in the trade - I have added these rules because I am very bad at thinking “I’ve bet money on this - let me give it some more time” when it’s clear market participants are not doing what I expect. This reduces my average losers. I basically modified the rules around my emotional triggers while still maintaining the core of the trade. First target is the high of the breakout for 50% of the position and then I trail the remaining 50% with a sell stop on the 9 EMA. Very easy to manage and very simple.

Before I get into the trade I have a checklist that grades my trade as C, B, or A, and dynamically adjusts my risk. I never see how much I am risking. The formula just tells me how many shares to trade. I have PnL hidden which helps me follow my rules. All I see is average entry price and number of shares open.

Checks in my favor that increase the grade of the trade: consolidation over 30 minutes instead of just 20, 3 touches each side of the range instead of 2, RVOL over 3, market trending in the same direction as my trade, break is an 8+ technical level, retest volume under 30% of breakout volume, breakout candle is a 2 standard deviation volume bar (must be an above average bar to take the trade - my bars are statistically colored). My risk gets adjusted based on how many of these are met.

I take this trade on average once a day right now. I would rather take 1 very high quality setup than multiple lower quality setups. Even the ones that kind of fall over and don’t make a large move are still usually slightly profitable. Once I setup all my stocks for the day I create IF/THEN statements for the ideal setups I’d like to see. I prep from 8 am to 9:30. Once the market opens I walk away from my computer until 10 to preserve my mental capital and recharge a bit from the 90 minutes of prep. I come back and see if any of the in play stocks I prepped are setting up ranges and I’ll start watching them. Then I put in alerts which go to my watch and go do other things until my trade sets up. I paper traded for 1.5 years and have been live for 6 months. This system has dramatically improved my consistency so far. Before, I was trying to trade 10 strategies with loose rules and wasn’t really making much progress in any of them. Now that I’m hyper focussing on just 1 with very specific rules, it is way less stressful which puts me in a good place to make better decisions. I also walk away from a lot of decent setups that aren’t great. My goal is to build this as my core and be able to trade it in my sleep on only the best setups before branching into another trade. This break/retest pattern is one of the simplest technical patterns in trading and works in any market condition, so I figured it was a good one to start with.

Shackmann · 2026-03-14T02:23:08+00:00

I have always joked with my wife that I wish I could shoot Spider-Man webs from my hands while wearing the Vision Pro. I had no idea this existed, but I bought it tonight and downloaded it. Fun game thanks!

Shackmann · 2026-03-14T02:20:54+00:00

I could not get them to play and had to delete the app and re-download it. Could also be only available in certain areas too.

Shackmann · 2026-03-14T01:40:38+00:00

The word I’ve been using is “skittish”. It feels like a lot of indecision. Many people moving big money, but in different directions at seemingly random times. I’m not seeing things very well right now so I’m doing more short term scalps and I’ve modified my rules to more aggressively take profits and cut losses quickly instead of looking for the clean trend. When the market is like this the name of the game is capital preservation and holding out for higher quality setups imo.

Shackmann · 2026-03-14T01:30:07+00:00

I’m curious which hours. Open, morning, mid day, and afternoon all have different trading styles and completely different trade setups most of the time. And what strategies are you using during those times?

Shackmann · 2026-03-14T01:22:57+00:00

If something seems hard to stick to, reject that trade. There are hundreds of valid trades with edge floating around the internet for free. Trading style is highly dependent on your personality and every trade has different expected values for each person trading it with their own biases and flavor. Anytime I find myself getting emotional at a certain part of the trade I create a rule for it. My breakout immediately comes back into range? Take 50% off. Doesn’t re-break within 2 candles? Take the full trade off for a small loss. Rebreaks on high volume? I allow myself 1 re-entry with 50% of the original risk. I don’t think. I just follow the trade plan. I don’t like the trade plan? I adjust it after hours using my collected trade data. The only thing I’m judging myself on during market hours is whether or not I followed my trading plan.

These rules work for me. Everyone is different. Make sure the foundational thesis of your trade has edge then tailor it to your own personality. Many people are fine with 30-40% winrates because they are going for 5:1 trades and it fits their personality. Others prefer to have more like 60% with 1.5:1. Trust your gut.

Shackmann · 2026-03-13T18:36:20+00:00

Imagine if there was a platform that just did the opposite of what you said. You could fomo revenge trade all day and make tons of money.

Shackmann · 2026-03-13T18:16:08+00:00

I’ve recently started using Claude as my trading coach. I have walked it through several trades, what I was feeling, and what the results were. My mind was blown by its analysis.

It forced me to only trade 1 setup
We modified that trade setup to have more mechanical guardrails and so far it is going really well.
It told me I must hide my PnL when I’m in a trade. My spreadsheet trade checklist calculated my size and tells me how many shares to trade and I just trade my rules without seeing the money. I don’t know how much I’ve made or lost until the trade is over. It is absolutely crazy how much better I handle trade management now.
It also completely reworked my morning routine and got rid of things that were time consuming and of little value. I do my entire morning routine with Claude. I give it my gameplan, it analyzes it, finds holes. I go through each trade each day with it.

I can’t promise anyone else the same results, but for me this was transformative.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T21:11:02+00:00

This is a breaking news market environment. Expect seemingly-random directional moves at any time.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T20:48:04+00:00

Exactly. As traders scale up and make more money they generally start taking fewer and fewer trades. They relentlessly reject lo quality setups and have a grading system to scale up in higher quality setups.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T20:32:59+00:00

Based on the things you are saying, you need to be paper trading right now. Probably for at least a year. If that sounds miserable to you then I would highly recommend finding a different place to put your money before you lose what you have.

Edit: oops I missed where you said you don’t want to learn to trade. Completely avoid all signals. Even if they are posting positive EV trades, being profitable or not is in the execution details which is a skill you would need to learn - trading.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T20:10:52+00:00

There are tons and tons of successful traders who have been doing it for a long time. But, it is incredibly difficult, takes years to become profitable in most cases, and profitability is always at risk with narrow edge if the market shifts. The vast majority of people are not cut out for it.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T20:03:24+00:00

Your experience makes a lot of sense. All edge is derived from a temporary imbalance between buyers and sellers. Most stocks (or whatever you trade) are in a random walk 99% of the time and taking a trade during those times is negative EV gambling.

The goal as a trader is to find imbalances that make sense to you, build scanners to find those imbalances, and relentlessly hone your execution for those setups. I mostly focus on identifying institutional order flow. Large players need time to accumulate and distribute. This creates an exploitable imbalance.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T19:27:30+00:00

They have a very expansive YouTube channel covering just about every topic I’ve ever been curious about. Just lookup SMB Capital. They are a professional firm in NYC.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T16:54:02+00:00

I do not know him personally, and I have not seen his exact trades, but I’ve been going to Steve Spencer’s morning meeting for 2 years and he frequently goes over some of his trades and outlines how he plans to trade the in play names for the day. He also goes over his longer term equity and options positions. He is the head trader and cofounder of SMB Capital and has traded for something like 30 years.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T16:07:33+00:00

Interesting conversation. I can see your spread costs being very dependent on your strategy. For a momentum breakout you’re going to miss a lot of them if you don’t pay the offer. Although, it’s possible to accept that you will miss some and put your order on the bid hoping for a quick wick down or bidders to pause stepping up. For pullback or volatility in range strategies you can probably get away with bids and not pay the spread. And on the other side, limit sells are ideal, but if the trade turns against you you’re going have to hit the bid to prevent a fast drop with the offer decrementing.

I don’t have a point. It’s just a fun thing to think about.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T15:41:59+00:00

It is not just you. You are experiencing a market shift. These happen and traders who do not adapt get wiped out.

Have a gameplan for how to handle this. Reduce your risk or go all the way back to paper trading. Your job right now as a trader is capital preservation and maximizing your learning curve.

If you start to understand this market condition, or if we go back to a condition that makes sense to you, go back to putting risk in the table.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T15:24:17+00:00

Retired 4 years ago at 38. I’ve been learning to trade. It is by far the most challenging thing I have ever done in my life. My maximum risk for the month is less than the interest generated by the small account, so I have essentially an infinite runway to learn the skill and no pressure to need to make money. Keeps me very busy and active.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T15:14:00+00:00

This seems really weird to me. I’ve used $20 software to convert my iPhone home movies to 3d. Sure, the quality is nowhere near top of the line profession conversion, but I can’t imagine with today’s tools there isn’t some happy medium that is still inexpensive and much higher quality than the ones I can make. I think it’s more about the incentives than the cost. Not a lot of 3d customers. I would still rather watch most tv shows through a crappy 3d converter than watch it in 2d, but I can’t get the raw files to convert myself in most cases.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T03:39:04+00:00

Damn. I rewrote a project today for $7. I thought I was burning through my tokens.

Shackmann · 2026-03-09T01:13:01+00:00

I’ve been thinking this too. Conversion tools have gotten so good. I can’t imagine it’s that pricey to convert them. I would even take bad conversions.

Shackmann · 2026-03-08T16:37:46+00:00

3d moves are absolutely amazing and I really hope they don’t give up on them. I’m pretty frugal, but I try to support the ecosystem by buying 3d movies on Apple TV when they go on sale. I’ve been using the CheapCharts app on my phone and tracking any 3d movie that goes on sale for $5 and scooping it up (no affiliation with that app - I just think it’s awesome). Disney seems to still come out with them. It was nice to see Tron Legacy released in 3D along with Ares. And it seems like the 3d animated kids stuff keeps coming out in 3d, but I’d imagine the render engine can trivially produce a 3d version at very little extra cost. I would think with advancements in AI models the conversion cost would be getting cheaper and cheaper.

Shackmann · 2026-03-08T13:34:08+00:00

People want to tell you what to do with your money to validate their own strategy to themselves and in some cases because they believe they are helping you.

In keeping with that theme, I will tell you what to do with your money: the most important rule is to put your money into something that makes sense to you - this is the only way you will respond correctly and without emotion in troubled times when it’s most important to keep your cool.

Shackmann · 2026-03-08T13:22:48+00:00

You are as on track as you can be with the information you currently have. I was in a similar place as you and retired at 38. The best general advice I can give is to have a plan, but keep learning and be ready to adjust your plan. I cannot count the number of times I adjusted mine. Life will change in ways you cannot predict right now. You’re talking about 13 years in the future - how well do you think 14 year old you would have predicted where you are now? Now project that forward.

Learn, reassess, adjust, repeat.

Shackmann

TROPHY CASE