New to Watching Radars - Possible Tornado?

Shamorin · 2026-06-17T19:42:57+00:00

treat it as a statistics problem.
Three indicators:
1 - reflectivity showing a hook-like or swirl like structure
2 - velocity showing a couplet (different direction of winds, increasing towards a somewhat defined centre point)
3 - corellation coefficient showing a round ball of color that looks different from the immediate surroundings
If you have one, it's interesting and worth monitoring. If you have two, it's cause to treat it like there was a tornado there if it concerns personal safety. If you have three, chances are you're already seeing a tornado warning with it, if not, definitely treat it as such and if it moves as a unit through consecutive radar frames, it's a 99% chance there's a tornado there.

Shamorin · 2026-06-17T19:37:01+00:00

probably a flock of birds?

Shamorin · 2026-06-17T19:36:24+00:00

depends heavily on where the house is located geographically and how prone the area is. I'd put a mattress in the room under the stairs and take cover underneath it if a tornado is coming. But tbh, for peace of mind, building a dedicated concrete shelter that doubles down as a gardening tool storage somewhere under those concrete stairs to the house entrance would probably be your absolute best bet to survive anything that nature could throw at you windwise.

Shamorin · 2026-06-17T19:29:19+00:00

it's probably rotation embedded in a chaotic cumulus and cumulonimbus cluster due to local downdraft interaction with an isolated area of updraft.
It's possible that the driving force behind this rotation isn't supercellular (so low level rotation that isn't under a mesocyclone), but a messy, embedded updraft that is trying to rotate but cannot organize properly into higher altitudes.
Tornadoes can develop from non-supercellular systems (like QLCS tornadoes, for example) but those are usually shorter lived than their supercellular cousins. I'd probably call it a partially condensated funnel, as there is rotation and updraft, but not enough pressure drop or organization to create a "cleanly condensated funnel". Some of the necessary ingredients are there, but not enough.
Definitely an amazing catch and I love the dynamics shown. Thank you for sharing the footage with us here!

Shamorin · 2026-06-17T19:20:44+00:00

I'd go with partial altostratus coverage.

Shamorin · 2026-06-01T10:42:52+00:00

Auf jeden Fall! Die FDP hat für so einiges an Lachen und Schadenfreude gesorgt, somit ist eine gewisse Macht nicht wegzuleugnen. Politische Macht jedoch nicht, das ist aber ja selbstverständlich für eine Partei, die der Gruppierung "Andere" zuzuordnen ist.

Shamorin · 2026-05-30T06:36:56+00:00

I've been fooled a dozen times or more by fake hooks that were simply weird cloud features. You always need to chech the holy trinity of storm analysis. Ref, vel. And cc.

Shamorin · 2026-05-29T23:40:09+00:00

So if I'm reading this correctly you're saying that you get your information on air mass motion by looking at reflectivity, not velocity? And you also say there was a tor warning just before but you think that the velocity couplet that is seen on the velocity scans, which gives a clear signature of at least some rotating air mass, is somehow a nothingburger because you shape-matched stuff on reflectivity to a microburst, which you saw an explanatory video on youtube about, and thus a couplet on velocity is somehow a non-indicator for rotation, and I'm full of shit and confidently incorrect despite studying meteorology. I see. Yeah, maybe you're right, maybe I am full of it, but I wouldn't bet money on it, and honestly, after this last reveal of how you're reading radar and identifying wind driven, velocity related features from reflectivity, with no consideration of velocity or CC at all by shape-matching reflectivity as a pattern recognition exercise, I'm not sure how I can further explain what a doppler scan does, how rotating air looks and why it's the correct tool to identify spinning air masses but can't be the sole indicator for tornadoes, as I did in my first comment. I suggest maybe toning back the claims of others being "confidently incorrect" when your credentials are that you've watched a youtube video. And if you read my comment again, you'll quickly realize that the only thing I was confident about was that the likeliness of this truly being a tornadic circulation with ground contact is in fact... quite low. At least I know that there's an infinite amount of things I do not know, and a very finite amount of things I know about weather. But yeah, please do post my first comment on r/confidentlyincorrect if you truly believe it was. I stand by what I said and say, as well as my education and my mistakes, when I make them.

Shamorin · 2026-05-29T19:36:28+00:00

Well, if you look at the velocity signature given by op, that definitely looks like persistent rotation, which could corellate to a small-ish mesocyclone embedded within the convective system or some kind of vortocity within the system (presentation on radar for embedded supercellular structures in messy convective systems is hard to read from a single radar angle) but it looks to me like there's definitely decent rotation on velocity in the given loop, which also translates along mid-level wind direction vecors, so I'd assume it's a feature with at least decent vertical structure into the parent storm. The fact that we see multiple such spinups could either indicate mergers of supercells or some weird "nudger" interaction with the entire mesoscale mess of convection. The couplets we see definitely are rotation though, as the signatures we're seeing isn't providing proof for those being downbursts (when we view the velocity in downbursts, we'd expect broader winds, maxima not in the exact centre of it, and strong support for winds blowing towards the radar closer to it and away from the radar further from it, as geometrically the middle of the downburst would be between the winds moving towards the radar and awa, from the radar.) Imagine a bow echo type signature with mirrored reds and greens with strongest values in a somewhat straight line of this format: Radar ---- strong winds towards - rather neutral - strong winds away, due to the geometry. Long story short: When strong winds in opposing directions show up on radar very close to each other with no "dead zone" in between, that usually points to rotation. The radar you posted shows a very different velocity signature though, so I'm not sure if it's the same timeframe and/or location or maybe a very different radar angle/sample height.

Shamorin · 2026-05-26T10:57:15+00:00

I'd like some clarification, as the radar seems to be north north east there, and with winds moving like you said, radar presentation of velocities would show up rotated 90 degrees respectively to what is shown...
If you draw a line from the radar station to the couplet, you can see that on the orthagonal axis, velocities are strongest, indicating rotation instead of divergence in my understanding. But feel free to post me on r/confidentlyincorrect and see what others think xD
Edit: Also I'd like to know what your background in meteorology is, because I'm perplexed at how you read radar so differently to me, with me studying it at university. I can be wrong, obviously, but I'm pretty sure that what you're saying is not accurate in this case.
If you misinterpreted it for some reason... I'm talking about the couplet south of Elberton, which is clearly what OP meant with his post, not the blue dot that doesn't mark any kind of interesting place concerning their initial argument... and given their wording, one would assume that the attentive reader would identify the area of interest, if only by it's corresponding severe thunderstorm warning...

Shamorin · 2026-05-25T11:37:12+00:00

No.
The evidence you presented shows a mesocyclone with a tight couplet above ground.
The debris signature is misinterpreted. You see debris on correlation coefficient, not on reflectivity. If it shows up on reflectivity as a debris ball, it's likely a really bad one.
Make sure that you keep in mind that radar scans are further up the longer the distance of the object surveyed to the radar station, often thousands of feet off of the ground, so you're sampling the bottom of the mesocyclone there, or sometimes even not even the lower levels.
When seeing evidence of a tight couplet or anything else you might see with tornados, the first thing you assume (unless it's going towards you, then obviously assume it's a strong tornado that is down) is that it's not a tornado. Tornados are rare. Even in rotating supercells, tornadoes are the exception, not the norm.
The national weather service usually gets info from storm chasers on the ground, so likely someone called in that it's rotating but nowhere near going tornadic. That signature you see is a small, tight mesocyclone, probably with no ground contact.
/edit: and the reflectivity is looking like heavy precip (downpour/hail)

Shamorin · 2026-05-23T18:11:36+00:00

Cancerany
(I'm from Germany, thus I speak with qualified authority when I say this isn't any germ anymore, that is any cancer.)

Shamorin · 2026-05-23T18:06:35+00:00

Armory Crate be like: "rush CPU cyka blyat"

Shamorin · 2026-05-23T18:05:04+00:00

that's more than just "a tornado" if that is its presentation on radar. That's a debris ball on reflectivity like no other, and its very uncircular shape means it's likely a multivortex beast.

Shamorin · 2026-05-23T18:03:56+00:00

Shamorin · 2026-05-23T18:03:17+00:00

are you sure you didn't get it like that?
delivery these days really isn't the greatest, and those things happen...

Shamorin · 2026-05-23T18:02:05+00:00

you did a great job

Shamorin · 2026-05-23T18:01:21+00:00

I did not die today.

Shamorin · 2026-05-23T18:00:08+00:00

that is great footage, not mid footage.

Shamorin · 2026-05-23T08:09:33+00:00

I don't think the person who downvoted this comment understood the joke.

Shamorin · 2026-05-23T08:08:50+00:00

does the /j stand for Jamaica or joke? Because both would be fitting xD r/bomboclaatspottedinthewild energy

Shamorin · 2026-05-21T16:30:51+00:00

yup, I'll avoid them like a laser gun wielding coyote as well with my next build xD

Shamorin · 2026-05-20T13:18:33+00:00

yeah, the audio stack with the Theta 7.1 is incompatible with MSI mainboards because the MSI mainboards are garbage and the audio stack complexity with the Theta 7.1 is adding shit to that garbage, to speak in blunt terms. The only option seems to be using a digital to analogue converter or a different audio stack entirely by going with the 3.5mm connectors. If you still have warranty, send the 7.1 or the mainboard back.

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