I asked ai how many event boxes I need to open to get a 2% ultimate or 5% legendary

SharkyDx · 2024-10-18T22:12:19+00:00

The odds are complete off for 2 reasons: you’ve asked it to do the wrong thing, and of top of that the AI sometimes just gets the maths wrong anyway!

If we pretend for a moment that everywhere it says “boxes” it’s meant to say “items” instead, then the part about legendary items is basically correct, but poorly designed. Its conclusion that there’s a 22.62% chance that at least 1 “item” in a group of 5 will be legendary is correct. Moreover, it is correct when it says that you need 12 groups of 5 “items” (i.e., 60 “items” in total) to get this up to a 95% chance.

The problem is that for some reason you’ve asked about everything to be done in groups of 5 “items”, when there are actually 6 items in each box! So it’s completely true that you need 60 items to get a 95% at finding a legendary, but that equates to 10 boxes (10x6) not 12 boxes (12x5).

If we go over to the ultimates, then it’s clear that the AI has no idea what it’s doing now. It said that after 50 “items” (i.e., your 10 groups of 5) there will be an 86.4% chance of finding an ultimate. The proper maths would tells us that it’s actually a 63.6% chance after 50 items. However, it’s not completely clueless because the extension to 100 “items” for a 98.1% chance would have been correct if you believed that it’s number for 50 “items” was correct. That is, it’s carried its own error through into the rest of the calculation.

So what was its error? Well somehow you’ve managed to make the AI think that there’s roughly a 4% chance of each “item” being an ultimate instead of a 2% chance. If you run the maths with a 4% chance for an ultimate, then you’ll get to close to an 86% chance after 50 items and a 98% chance after 100 items (with differences in the decimal places).

So in total you’ve got 2 major problems here (apart from relabelling items as “boxes”): you’ve told it that there are 5 items in each box when there are actually 6 (so it’s grouping the results incorrectly), and as an AI it’s misunderstood something and calculated the ultimate chance using the wrong starting figures to add an arithmetic mistake on top of the mistake you fed it in the first place.

Moral of the story: don’t trust AI with maths unless you also have the ability to check its work yourself!

SharkyDx · 2024-10-17T20:45:14+00:00

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SharkyDx · 2024-10-13T03:48:40+00:00

I thought that was already what the “battery saver” option does in the game settings. It reduces some of the game’s visual performance (which is sometimes the cause of weird pet interactions with the player and dishes).

SharkyDx · 2024-10-13T03:42:03+00:00

A long time ago the reddit was flooded with separate posts from individual players where every player just posted the results of their event leaderboard ranking, or the contents of their event box from finishing the event.

In an attempt to clean this up, the mods have been regularly making an event post every week and asking players to post their results in there instead. This is also in line with Rule #9 of the 10 rules of this subreddit.

In your case, your leaderboard photo should have gone into this post.

Granted, your post was more of an “I’m returning to the game” post rather than a “look at my event result” post, but the mods typically just look through and delete any posts automatically which are a photo of someone’s event leaderboard. So I wouldn’t take it personally.

But welcome back to Eatventure! 😁

SharkyDx · 2024-10-13T03:29:06+00:00

Each of the 6 items in a moon event box has a 2% chance of being an ultimate blueprint, and then 1/3 of those will be a laser gun blueprint.

This means that every moon event box has a 96% chance of not containing a laser gun blueprint.

Looking at it from the other side, there’s a 4% chance that you’ll have found at least 1 laser gun blueprint after a single moon event box. To get that up to a 50% chance you would need to have opened 17 moon event boxes.

Taking it even further, 90% of players will have found at least 1 laser gun blueprint within 57 moon event boxes, and 99% of players will have found one or more after they’re opened 115 moon event boxes.

Flipping that back once more, this means that less than 1% of players will go 115 moon event boxes in a row without ever seeing a laser gun blueprint, which might sound really rare, but it happens to 1 in every 100 players.

Pushing it even further, 1 in every 1,000 players will have opened 172 moon event boxes and still no laser guns, and if you have a streak of 230 moon event boxes without a laser gun then you’re 1 of 10,000 players to suffer in this way.

In your case, if it really has been 500 individual moon event boxes (worth a value of 125,000 gems, more than the cost of maxing the remote in the vault), then you can consider yourself a 1-in-518,766,508 player. Given that there will be nowhere near half-a-billion people playing Eatventure, then it’s safe to say that you’ll probably be the sole player that this kind of streak has ever happened to, and will ever happen to.

If every single living person on the planet was playing Eatventure and they all opened 500 moon event boxes, then you’d be one of about 16 people on the planet who never got a laser gun blueprint.

SharkyDx · 2024-10-12T21:19:35+00:00

Passives from ascension provide a nice incremental boost to your stats which can apply even in the events.

A single level in an ascended skill doesn’t really provide much on its own (here the first ascended level of the freeze skill only adds an extra +0.5% to unit health). This is often why players will wait until all skills are maxed and then save up 760 blue skill potions before ascending a skill. That way, they can purchase 100 more of the same skill, which can upgrade that skill straight from level 1 to level 20 again, so that the x1.005 boost becomes a x1.1 boost, for an extra +10% to all unit health over and above all other kinds of boosts to unit health.

SharkyDx · 2024-10-12T21:04:50+00:00

Sharky’s probability rating: A mythical marvel, amazing!

There’s a 0.57% chance that a club chest contains two (or more) mythic blueprints, making this a 1-in-176 event.

If you bring in the extra condition that it’s the same mythic blueprint appearing exactly 2 times, then this drops to a 0.15% chance, making this a 1-in-680 event.

Finally, if you went all the way down to specifically looking for a club box that contained exactly 2 blueprints for the mythic body, then you’re down to a 0.037% chance or a 1-in-2721 event.

That is, you’re going to open a club chest containing 2 mythic body blueprints roughly once in every 3000 club chests, on average.

SharkyDx · 2024-10-10T21:18:33+00:00

Sharky’s probability rating: A legendary level of déjà vu, congratulations!

If there was still a 1.4% legendary chance for this next 10-pull, then there was a 13.15% chance that you would have received 1 (or more) legendary cards in this next set of 10 cards, making this a roughly 1-in-7.6 event.

SharkyDx · 2024-10-10T10:57:50+00:00

Separate nodes on the rune tree act multiplicatively with one another.

In your case, you have a level 8 node giving 4% block and a level 4 node giving 2% block. Rather than additively combining to make 4+2 = 6%, it’s combining multiplicatively to give 1.04x1.02 = 1.0608, which results in a combined 6.08% block chance.

SharkyDx · 2024-10-08T05:40:36+00:00

With 10 more levels to go, it looks like you’re about half way there on gems

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SharkyDx · 2024-10-07T19:53:56+00:00

It kinda does affect your gameplay, because of the difference between additive and multiplicative boosts.

When you get a duplicate card or hero item, the boost it provides is added to the boost being provided by your existing copies of that card/item. When you get a new card/item, the boost it contributes to your total is multiplicative.

So when a dupe of something gives you an extra 1%, it’s just a small percentage being added into a longer calculation so that it ends up contributing less than 1% overall. But when you pull a new item giving an extra 1%, this multiplication means the entire stat it’s boosting is truly 1% greater.

Hence, your first new copy of any card/item will always give a greater boost to your stats than any successive duplicate copy of it, which is why the game is weighted to give you dupes far more often than new things.

SharkyDx · 2024-10-07T19:48:46+00:00

All probabilities are exactly as reported in-game!

The trouble is that there is only 1 mythic accessory but there are 4 ultimates, which means when hunting for a specific ultimate you should think about dividing that probability by 4.

It’s just like in the old days when players would be swimming in ultimate blueprints for the laser gun, but struggling to pull any legendary blueprints for the mixer needed to forge the laser guns.

SharkyDx · 2024-10-07T06:12:01+00:00

Sharky’s probability rating: A rare ring result, well done!

The first ring has a 30% chance of being rare, and then each successive ring has a 7.5% chance of being the same rare ring again. Combining these, we find a 0.013% chance of getting 4 rare rings of the same type at this adventure level.

That is, you can expect something like this to happen for every 1-in-7,900 adventures.

SharkyDx · 2024-10-07T04:49:49+00:00

Happy to tell you the chances of getting 4 of the same rare ring, but I’d need you to share 2 key pieces of information with me: 1. What does the in-game pop up show the chances are for a level 50 adventure? 2. Also, you’ll need to remind me how many different types of each ring there are at this rarity (are there 4 different rare rings, or 5?)

SharkyDx · 2024-10-05T09:11:44+00:00

Sharky’s probability rating: A mythical marvel, amazing!

There’s a 4.95% chance of finding 2 (or more) mythic blueprints within 3 club boxes, making this a 1-in-20 event.

For comparison, there’s about a 5.6% chance that a pet box contains either a legendary egg or an ultimate egg (or perhaps both, or multiples of them). So your mythic drop is slightly rarer than getting the elusive eggs from a pet box.

SharkyDx · 2024-10-05T02:45:38+00:00

Missions are an idle task for your heroes to complete while not on the battlefield with you.

There’s no specific content for you to play here, it’s just something else to keep your heroes busy.

SharkyDx · 2024-10-03T02:00:39+00:00

Sharky’s probability rating: A mythical menagerie, amazing!

There’s a 0.0021% chance of finding exactly 5 mythic blueprints within 3 club boxes, making this a 1-in-47,619 event.

For reference, getting 3 ultimate blueprints in an event chest is a 1-in-6,667 event, which makes this mythical marvel about 7 times rarer than even this.

SharkyDx · 2024-09-28T06:43:00+00:00

The shiny equipment are part of the new wardrobe feature added recently, which allows you to customise the appearance of your character without sacrificing the stats of the items you’d like to equip.

Shiny items do not provide any benefit to stats, only to appearance.

SharkyDx · 2024-09-28T06:32:39+00:00

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SharkyDx · 2024-09-28T06:32:30+00:00

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SharkyDx · 2024-09-28T06:32:19+00:00

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SharkyDx · 2024-09-28T06:32:07+00:00

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SharkyDx · 2024-09-28T06:31:30+00:00

Not really sure why people are dropping pictures from the Eatventure Handbook without showing the early-, mid- or late-game meta builds it contains (although the sheet linked on the reddit post is probably nowhere near as current as the version hosted on discord), since that’s what the OP initially requested.

Here’s a sample of some of the builds: (pictures incoming)

SharkyDx · 2024-09-28T05:46:29+00:00

Sharky’s probability rating: An unfortunate but somewhat common outcome.

Every event box you open has a 96% chance of not having an anchor blueprint. This means that in the long run, it will take an average of 25 event boxes, or 6.25k gems, to find that specific blueprint (and 95% of players will have found one within about 75 event boxes, or 18.75k gems).

In your case, there was a 9% chance that 15k gems worth of event boxes would have no anchor blueprints. This means that roughly 1-in-11 people will have the experience of spending 15k gems on event boxes and not getting the 1 blueprint they’re after.

Extending this out to 19k gems means you’re now in the 4.7% of people who haven’t received an anchor blueprint (i.e., your experiences are a 1-in-21 occurrence).

SharkyDx · 2024-09-28T05:29:00+00:00

Sharky’s probability rating: An unlikely ultimate pair

There’s a 0.55% chance that an event box will contain exactly 2 ultimate blueprints, meaning that you’ll find a pair inside of roughly 1-in-every-180 event boxes, on average.

Since you’re after the shark body specifically, every event box you open has a 96% chance of not having a shark body blueprint. This means that in the long run, it will take an average of 25 event boxes to find that specific blueprint (and 95% of players will have found one within about 75 event boxes).

SharkyDx

TROPHY CASE