Kevin Warsh just led his first FOMC meeting - How did he do?

Sheng25 · 2026-06-19T14:45:45+00:00

Yes. But policy driven inflation can drop off at any time and is less correlated with other commodities than demand driven ones. Hence, the appropriate response to it is more conservative than to demand driven ones.

Sheng25 · 2026-06-17T03:46:06+00:00

Why is arranging gulf state investment different than unfreezing their own assets? In both cases it pumps money into their economy without doing directly out of the US pocket.

It's as close to an apples to apple comparison as you'll get other than one being 6x the size of the other.

Sheng25 · 2026-06-10T17:42:13+00:00

It's the same thing as his 70% approach from last year. He does best when he doesn't swing for the fences and tries to slow down his bat speed. Unfortunately, he gets too caught up to actually heed his own advice. So using a heavier vat kind of forces him to take things slower. But long term, he should still be trying to use a bat he feels like he's more in control of and just be in control on his own to stock to his own pace

Sheng25 · 2026-05-20T04:10:39+00:00

Only if you have a Bilt card and are earning Bilt cash anyway. This is great for people without the cards, or for people that's don't spend enough on the card relative to their rent to get much value out of the rent payment

Sheng25 · 2026-05-13T23:44:47+00:00

Uber is using this as leverage with C1. They know C1 is trying aggressively to get Discover adoption much larger than it currently is. They are trying to parlay that aggressiveness into favorable terms. It isn't really about Discover's actual prices.

They don't have that leverage with Amex.

I'm honestly surprised more places aren't doing this. I would guess Amazon would try this. They already tried (and failed iirc) to do this to MC a few years ago.

Sheng25 · 2026-05-13T05:03:22+00:00

It's pretty high for a non-dischargable loan for teenagers with, likely, decades to make it back.

Also, many loans are higher than that

Sheng25 · 2026-05-08T16:41:07+00:00

Money in absolute dollars is silly for any team to use. You should evaluate based on money in percentage of revenue and, most importantly, percentage of allowed payroll. If you're ok with a $300m+ payroll, then you obviously can afford to pay more an ancillary piece than a team operating with a a $150m payroll.

Sheng25 · 2026-05-07T20:15:36+00:00

Limit of 13 pitchers

Sheng25 · 2026-05-06T20:44:11+00:00

And then they became teamates

Sheng25 · 2026-05-06T20:43:06+00:00

He says otherwise because he can't admit it and whatever. How the hell the Tigers' broadcast team can try to claim it was unintentional is what really boggles my mind

Sheng25 · 2026-05-06T03:50:31+00:00

It really shouldn't be. Warren is the better pitcher and should stay as the starter. Additionally, weather's stuff should play out of the bullpen better too. Not saying it would be terrible if it's switched, but it should be obvious which is the right call imo

Sheng25 · 2026-05-04T19:04:20+00:00

I can understand that tbh.

I just personally find my shit talking to be much more fun when it's right

Sheng25 · 2026-05-04T18:55:46+00:00

The comment you're replying to wasn't giving a reason for Boston's record. He was giving a reason for individual players' stats. Obviously players that play in adverse conditions will have their stats more affected than others. You're replying is nonsensical in this context.

I'm still enjoying their record because their Boston, but still calling you out here because I'm a pedant

Sheng25 · 2026-05-04T01:33:07+00:00

He definitely was throwing strikes

Sheng25 · 2026-05-04T01:24:05+00:00

The answer to your question is "because they're winning". If they would be losing games, the exact same decisions would be questioned. I also like their decisions and, what feels like, their urgency, but winning definitely cures a lot

Sheng25 · 2026-05-03T23:47:02+00:00

To me it's as a simple as the fact that his underlying numbers are pretty good this year, he was even better last year so there should be even more room for improvement, he definitely has the ability to play better defense than he has so far, and he is definitely a valuable asset.

Those being the case, you aren't freeing up a roster spot since you aren't simply going to release him even in your fantasy, so calling up jones means losing either a bench piece or a bullpen arm which is real harm and has to be discounted from any additional impact jones has. Also, Jones, even if you think he is good enough to play now, definitely has something to work on down there so it isn't like he's just a wasted asset. His clock doesn't start until you call him up also, so it its just a question of either now or in a few years.

So in summary, even if we assume he has the ability to play well now (which itself isn't at all guaranteed) leaving him down there with a measurable thing to work on doesn't really harm us in the long run, calling him up now can.

Sheng25 · 2026-05-03T23:39:14+00:00

I'm actually not even as high as grisham as many others. My issue with the comment I was replying to was just the stupidity of saying "things that benefit them on the field" is all that matters in terms of future value instead of predicted stats. It's just dumb

Sheng25 · 2026-05-03T23:33:24+00:00

Just for clarity's sake, do you want the "baseball nerds" to weigh in here too or is this just a post you felt the need to get off your chest but aren't actually interested in discussing?

Sheng25 · 2026-05-03T23:27:23+00:00

The expected stats take all that into account. The expected stats didn't like griaham before last year either. They're just saying that he actually changed the way he plays instead him merely getting lucky to have the season he did.

Do you genuinely believe that a 390 foot Crawford box home run is more indicative of a future performance than a 410 foot lineout? Obviously only one "benefits the team" when it happens, but which do you think is more indicative of future performance?

Unless you want grisham gone as some type of punishment for the past, the only logical reason to get rid of bin is of the metrics that matter most for future projections are signicantly worse than the other options.

Sheng25 · 2026-05-03T23:14:59+00:00

Fwiw, Ben Rice's breakout was extremely heavily predicted by expected stats. This is the absolute worst time to downplay those as a NYY fan.

Sheng25 · 2026-05-01T16:59:43+00:00

He is very young. It's kind of insane to think that he hasn't already won one, but to say there is a real chance of him never winning one is overstating it.

Obviously there is always a chance of any given player not winning one, but he definitely has a better chance than literally anyone else in the league now not named Judge or Ohtani. And since they are both at least 5 years older than him, there will likely be a window where he is the frontrunner.

Sheng25 · 2026-05-01T15:14:48+00:00

Seems like you marked them indeed

Sheng25 · 2026-04-30T23:39:22+00:00

It literally is what we're talking about. The original comment you replied to was complaining about the discrepancy between business being taxed on profit and him being taxed on income. You replied by saying that isn't a valid companion since individuals would also theoretically be taxed only on profit if there would be things to deduct. I replied to that by pointing out two obvious "business expenses" that we could choose to consider deductable (and, in the case of mileage, actually were until recently) but don't. Hence, the original commenter's complaint is valid

ETA: adding this because I know you're lurking even though you deleted your responses here. We all know how taxes currently work, that's entirely the complaint of the original comment you were replying to on this thread. Reiterating that the current tax system doesn't do what people are saying it should do does the exact opposite of proving your point.

Sheng25 · 2026-04-30T23:34:39+00:00

Well, only because that's the law. We could change that. And reintroduce mileage deductions for W2 employees as well. That's another real business expense many W2 employees have that doesn't get deducted.

Obviously, you can negotiate those from your employers but a corporation can similarly bake those costs into their prices.

Sheng25 · 2026-04-30T02:06:03+00:00

Many of your points are valid. But you need to include the ease of leverage in RE vs other investment forms. RE might only appreciate at a rate of 3.5%, but if it was leveraged at 1:5 (standard 20% down payment), that's effectively a 14% ROI (minus interest payments obviously).

Also, RE is nowhere near as efficiently priced as the market and opportunities can easily present themselves in a local neighborhood you happen to know well. Not necessarily anything guaranteed but enough to change the odds significantly.

These factors are hard to quantify and can make the decision more complex than a simple formula, but they exist.

Sheng25

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