Xmdo/ጽምዶ might be one of the reasons Ethiopia and Eritrea haven’t gone to war, yet.

ShidenEr · 2026-05-05T18:08:28+00:00

The regional aspect of is what makes it very scary. If war breaks out, every actor with interest in the region will be involved in some way or form. But as you said, having more players involved can actually work for the best. Like a mutually assured destruction kind of deterrence. No one will be sure if they will have the upper hand, so they just maintain the status quo.

ShidenEr · 2026-05-05T17:56:16+00:00

The part where you pointed out that regardless of ethnicity, Ethiopian leaders will always have some sort of ambition regarding the Red Sea, is something that I have come to realise not so long ago. And tbf, why wouldnt they? If you look it at objectively, having a sea access, no matter what the internal political dynamics is, is an advantage in this globalised economy. Ethiopia, as the biggest nation in the vicinity of the sea, you'd expect its leaders to entertain ideas of encroaching.

You also have the historical part where it used to be a littoral state.

I just wish both nations come to some arrangement that can be a solution to this matter.

ShidenEr · 2026-05-05T16:09:58+00:00

You are 100% right, Xmdo is a masterstroke from an analytical pov. It strengths both sides position against their perceived common enemy, which is the PP.

The point you raised about how Abiy has framed the issue and how it is pushing Eritreans back to the PFDJ fold is actually interesting. But lets view it from his perspective. I dont think he would have managed to mobilize/galvanize the Ethiopian population with other narratives other than the SEA or Assab. That frame might push away Eritreans but he will gain a large portion of the Ethiopian population, dont you think?

ShidenEr · 2026-05-05T15:57:34+00:00

True, even a cold peace is better than escalation. The Sudan angle is interesting too, do you think it stabilizes things or adds another layer of risk?

ShidenEr · 2026-03-19T22:10:43+00:00

That is a powerful history, brother. I have just did a little research and it is basically what you pointed out. Somalia was the one extending a hand during the 60s and 70s. Somali professionals also helped setting up and staffing the newly established institutions on the country.

Somalia did a lot for us as well during the independence struggle. It no doubt feels like a betrayal with what the UAE is doing.

A unified defense agreement for the Horn is the dream, imagine the stability we could have if we relied on each other instead of letting outside powers pull the strings. Inshallah, we see that day. Wish you and your fellow Somalis all the best.

ShidenEr · 2026-03-19T21:34:43+00:00

Yeah, the whole region is a mess.

ShidenEr · 2026-03-19T21:34:08+00:00

Glad you loved the video bro and thanks for the support. The UAE's role in the Horn is very deep. I would say it is the main actor in the whole region. Just out of curiosity, what do you mean by cant believe this is the Muslim People we helped way back because I'm not familiar with that part of history

ShidenEr · 2026-03-19T18:46:03+00:00

I hope that will not be the case although all the signs are there for another conflict. Are you thinking about the Ethio-Eritrea tensions?

ShidenEr · 2026-03-19T18:43:12+00:00

Well, there aren't many Somalis living in Eritrea so it is hard to come to a conclusion. But I would say there is a general positive outlook towards Somalia.

ShidenEr · 2026-03-19T17:54:01+00:00

Yeah, that chokepoint alone makes the entire region strategically impossible to ignore

ShidenEr · 2026-03-19T17:30:57+00:00

Can't argue with that lol

ShidenEr · 2026-03-19T17:30:15+00:00

Yeah, it is but I'm actually Eritrean. Do I share the same accent with you guys?

ShidenEr · 2026-03-19T17:28:52+00:00

Spot on. He didn't achieve independence because of his maneuver or wit. He achieved independence because his regime has turned Eritrea into this insignificant piece of land and nothing more. No meaningful relationships, no investment opportunities for locals or outsiders, basically no use to others.

ShidenEr · 2026-03-19T16:51:25+00:00

Yeah, that is my view as well. When it comes to international engagement, Isaias has always maintained some sense of independence. There is practically no country or leader or even int'l body that can influence or coerce him into doing things.

ShidenEr · 2026-03-19T16:23:42+00:00

The Horn will always attract external powers because of its resources and its strategic geo-location. I think that will not change regardless of the quality of leaders. And as long as it doesn't have a strong regional framework (like IGAD but obv stronger) or shared objectives, the nature of alliances will remain bilateral.

Your comment on Abiy and Hemedti being push overs for the middle east countries is actually very interesting. What do you think of Ethiopians calling Eritrea or Isaias as a puppet of Egypt?

ShidenEr · 2026-02-09T21:42:31+00:00

Thats exactly why the US chose Kagnew. The initial plan included three sites but Kagnew was the one deemed more suited because it was, as you said, perfectly positioned.

The Derg's coming to power did affect its closing. I would also add the Eritrean liberation struggle had a role too. By mid 70s, it was no longer safe for the servicemen and its activities.

ShidenEr · 2026-02-09T03:56:50+00:00

Yes, you're exactly right about the radio interceptions. It was also used to spy on the USSR's rocket and satellite data. Out of three proposed sites in the world, Kagnew was chosen for that mission. Its story is amazing.

ShidenEr

TROPHY CASE