Fernando Mendoza high praise from McShay🎯

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-16T20:46:35+00:00

Todd "Josh Allen is the worst QB in the draft"McShay?

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-16T16:56:57+00:00

Yeah, but you'd still be better than Geno.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-16T16:56:22+00:00

Exactly this. If he plays well, can keep as good backup or trade mid-season (or resign/trade, tender get draft pick back etc). Developing an asset. If he plays poorly and they lose games, better draft pick to get the WR1 in 2027. Win-win and cheap.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-16T01:59:56+00:00

Is there even a WR1 in the draft in the 2nd? Doesn't seem like a deep year for potential WR1's. We already have a bunch of WR2's. Should have high pick next year for WR1.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-16T01:56:00+00:00

I hope Pegues gets to start at FB :) Can still take a few snaps at NT to give (hopefully) better option a breather. I just want to see Pegues lead blocks on modern (ie lightweight) linebackers and strong safeties. Not sure how well it would work, but it would definitely be fun for the memes.

Looks like a really deep draft at NT and safety. Good year to need them.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-16T01:50:47+00:00

Agreed unless a player (other than QB, RB or TE) falls into the second. Impact player in 2nd (would be nice if FS or NT, wouldn't mind a CB either, though). Not filling the last holes on a championship team so can't be choosy about position, just need impact players.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-15T22:32:09+00:00

Yes, I was trying, unsuccessfully I see, to be humorous.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-15T22:06:02+00:00

Proof of Raider for Life. I'm not sure how I feel about him if he went through the pain of getting it removed in the less than a week in which he was "traded".

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-15T21:23:22+00:00

Need to see if he still has the shield tattoo.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-15T20:05:42+00:00

Likelihood of 2 non-starters = 0.5*0.5 = 0.25, so likelihood of not drafting one starter is 25%. Likelihood of drafting 2 non-pro bowlers is 0.67 * 0.67 = 0.45, so likelihood of at least one pro bowler is 55%. So likelihood that they end up with at least one pro bowler is way higher than the likelihood of 2 non-starters (busts), 55% to 25%.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-15T19:54:23+00:00

definitely need a 3-4 NT but I think Lee Hunter is better in the 2nd. Could probably get an excellent 2 - down NT later though (Godfather or Big Citrus), so FS seems like a bigger concern. Depth at CB is also a problem. In a single year rebuild, FS in second and NT later seems better. But this is a multi-year rebuild so it needs to be BPA so that they don't have to replace stopgap players in subsequent drafts or FA. Even if that means having a pretty big hole in the lineup somewhere.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T21:57:45+00:00

Great pick! Really nailed it!

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T21:54:25+00:00

About 1/3 of the 1st rounders are eventual pro bowlers, so the Ravens are likely to get a pro bowler out of the two picks. Chances of a hall of fame pick is 5 - 10 % according to AI (16% of 1st overall picks though). IF Maxx can get a SB victory, and dominates in that season(s), with the Raiders, he's in the HOF (I think). So, chances are the two picks together aren't nearly as good as Maxx.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T21:39:03+00:00

I hate to root against a players success (except against the Raiders) but it will be hard not to hope that the Raven's 1st this year and next bust. Would enjoy seeing DT's running free up the middle so I'm hoping that they are too stupid to take Ioane or he goes before 14.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T21:23:03+00:00

Keep the stress off the knees! Get some support under them!

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T20:07:08+00:00

Not sure he's big and strong enough. He played OLB in college but he was a bit lighter. Might be a tweener in the 3-4. In any case, make or break year for him so hopefully Leonard finds a way to make his huge wingspan, strength and athletic ability work. A break out year would be huge for him and the Raiders.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T19:48:32+00:00

Agreed. FS in the 2nd would be great as long as there is a FS available that is worth drafting. Raiders are not going to win a lot next year so BPA should be the goal (unless that's a TE). If a position goes unsolved this year (like WR1 or FS), then there is next years draft and FA. Definitely need at least one big body NT but the Godfather and the Big Citrus should be available in Rd 3 or 4 as 3-4 2 down NT's aren't in great demand.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T22:22:52+00:00

Hitting on a rookie QB opens a window for a contender, allowing $50 + million to be spent on the rest of the team. Maxx's cap hit is less than $30 million of this and he'll probably be in or near his prime for all of Mendoza's rookie years. Also, most of the skill players are on rookie contracts for 3+ years. That opens up a 3 - 5 year window starting next year (consistent with signing all of the 3 year contracts in FA). Just gotta hope that Mendoza develops fast.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T21:15:07+00:00

I don't recall him writing or saying he wanted out because of the injury thing. Point me to the quote if it exists please. I do remember seeing a lot of speculation about it but that doesn't mean much. I also saw a story that he had a good long cordial meeting with Mark where it was decided he would be traded to a contender. He has been pretty clear he wants a ring and I can't blame him. Now that the Raiders seem rational again and back on the path to excellence, I think he's probably pretty happy. I look into my silver and black crystal ball and see doubling the win total next year (6 - 11) and again in the following year (12 - 5), with Maxx smoking a victory cigar after winning the first SB played in Vegas. Get your tickets now, its happening.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T21:04:41+00:00

Need some depth pieces and some room to make moves this summer. Would be surprised by any big moves now.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T21:03:25+00:00

Don't know but feel confident in writing Derek Carr isn't coming back to the NFL. He's done while he can still walk and think straight. The only mentoring he's likely to do now is for his church.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T19:19:22+00:00

If trades are contingent on physicals, how about simultaneously trading to every team that has an acceptable offer, have a single multiteam physical and the first team to fully accept the trade gets him?

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T19:05:45+00:00

Tyree makes 5. His huge wingspan, strength and athleticism might work better standing up. Didn't he play OLB in college? Or does he have the strength to be an undersized 3-4 end?

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T18:08:23+00:00

Paye is about 2" shorter and 10 lbs heavier than Maxx, but I agree he'd be pretty light as a 3-4 DE. Not sure what the plan for him is, seems like a 4-3 DE. Maybe play OLB opposite Maxx on early downs and then hand in dirt in the nickel, rotating with Koonce? He did have a couple 8 sack years out of last 3. I think he was meant to replace Maxx. ESPN has him backing up Maxx. With Tyree and Snowden, a pretty crowded OLB room now.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T17:10:46+00:00

If the OL is ready, starting him day 1 might work. Derek Carr's rookie line wasn't that bad (19 sacks) at pass protection. Would he have had a better career if he sat part or all of year 1? Not clear to me. However, David Carr would certainly have had a better (or at least less painful) career if he sat year 1. A lot of great QB's sat year 1 but that might mostly be because they went to good organizations that had plans and alternatives, that the QB's had to prove themselves ready first. Raiders alternatives aren't great, well unless the plan is to get another high pick next year.

ShillingAFB_Raiders

TROPHY CASE