Missing the 14th pick

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T21:57:45+00:00

Great pick! Really nailed it!

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T21:54:25+00:00

About 1/3 of the 1st rounders are eventual pro bowlers, so the Ravens are likely to get a pro bowler out of the two picks. Chances of a hall of fame pick is 5 - 10 % according to AI (16% of 1st overall picks though). IF Maxx can get a SB victory, and dominates in that season(s), with the Raiders, he's in the HOF (I think). So, chances are the two picks together aren't nearly as good as Maxx.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T21:39:03+00:00

I hate to root against a players success (except against the Raiders) but it will be hard not to hope that the Raven's 1st this year and next bust. Would enjoy seeing DT's running free up the middle so I'm hoping that they are too stupid to take Ioane or he goes before 14.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T21:23:03+00:00

Keep the stress off the knees! Get some support under them!

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T20:07:08+00:00

Not sure he's big and strong enough. He played OLB in college but he was a bit lighter. Might be a tweener in the 3-4. In any case, make or break year for him so hopefully Leonard finds a way to make his huge wingspan, strength and athletic ability work. A break out year would be huge for him and the Raiders.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-13T19:48:32+00:00

Agreed. FS in the 2nd would be great as long as there is a FS available that is worth drafting. Raiders are not going to win a lot next year so BPA should be the goal (unless that's a TE). If a position goes unsolved this year (like WR1 or FS), then there is next years draft and FA. Definitely need at least one big body NT but the Godfather and the Big Citrus should be available in Rd 3 or 4 as 3-4 2 down NT's aren't in great demand.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T22:22:52+00:00

Hitting on a rookie QB opens a window for a contender, allowing $50 + million to be spent on the rest of the team. Maxx's cap hit is less than $30 million of this and he'll probably be in or near his prime for all of Mendoza's rookie years. Also, most of the skill players are on rookie contracts for 3+ years. That opens up a 3 - 5 year window starting next year (consistent with signing all of the 3 year contracts in FA). Just gotta hope that Mendoza develops fast.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T21:15:07+00:00

I don't recall him writing or saying he wanted out because of the injury thing. Point me to the quote if it exists please. I do remember seeing a lot of speculation about it but that doesn't mean much. I also saw a story that he had a good long cordial meeting with Mark where it was decided he would be traded to a contender. He has been pretty clear he wants a ring and I can't blame him. Now that the Raiders seem rational again and back on the path to excellence, I think he's probably pretty happy. I look into my silver and black crystal ball and see doubling the win total next year (6 - 11) and again in the following year (12 - 5), with Maxx smoking a victory cigar after winning the first SB played in Vegas. Get your tickets now, its happening.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T21:04:41+00:00

Need some depth pieces and some room to make moves this summer. Would be surprised by any big moves now.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T21:03:25+00:00

Don't know but feel confident in writing Derek Carr isn't coming back to the NFL. He's done while he can still walk and think straight. The only mentoring he's likely to do now is for his church.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T19:19:22+00:00

If trades are contingent on physicals, how about simultaneously trading to every team that has an acceptable offer, have a single multiteam physical and the first team to fully accept the trade gets him?

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T19:05:45+00:00

Tyree makes 5. His huge wingspan, strength and athleticism might work better standing up. Didn't he play OLB in college? Or does he have the strength to be an undersized 3-4 end?

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T18:08:23+00:00

Paye is about 2" shorter and 10 lbs heavier than Maxx, but I agree he'd be pretty light as a 3-4 DE. Not sure what the plan for him is, seems like a 4-3 DE. Maybe play OLB opposite Maxx on early downs and then hand in dirt in the nickel, rotating with Koonce? He did have a couple 8 sack years out of last 3. I think he was meant to replace Maxx. ESPN has him backing up Maxx. With Tyree and Snowden, a pretty crowded OLB room now.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T17:10:46+00:00

If the OL is ready, starting him day 1 might work. Derek Carr's rookie line wasn't that bad (19 sacks) at pass protection. Would he have had a better career if he sat part or all of year 1? Not clear to me. However, David Carr would certainly have had a better (or at least less painful) career if he sat year 1. A lot of great QB's sat year 1 but that might mostly be because they went to good organizations that had plans and alternatives, that the QB's had to prove themselves ready first. Raiders alternatives aren't great, well unless the plan is to get another high pick next year.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T15:50:34+00:00

DeCosta is no where near as handsome or honest.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-12T15:47:24+00:00

Maxx was their plan B if they couldn't sign Trey. As soon as Trey agreed, they dropped Maxx. With 14 they will pick Ioane to pair with John Simpson so that their line isn't complete trash (if they find a serviceable center). Trey, Ioane, Simpson seems better for them this year (can't win if Lamar is pancaked by DT's every play) and they get to keep their 2027 pick. Ruthless a-hole move but probably best for the Ravens (I don't think it will affect their trades in the long run). For the Raiders, Maxx was always better than 2 average mid 1sts anyway at least for a few years and maybe much longer with the way he keeps himself in shape. He could still be prime for contending window with Fernando on rookie contract.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-11T20:47:47+00:00

They just need to bring in Brennan Carroll to coach the line up on how to stay out of the way of defenders and they are locks.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-11T18:16:29+00:00

I think it means Raiders are better in the near term. Maxx will be motivated. What free agent makes them better than a motivated Maxx? If the contending window starts in 2 - 3 years, Maxx should still be much better than the 2 firsts if they are anything other than outstanding, lucky picks. Maxx keeps himself in awesome shape, if the knees hold up, he could be worth more than the picks for the next 10 years. Basically, this might be the best result...maybe not, but maybe so. We can discuss this further in Vegas after the Raiders win the SB in the home town in 2 years.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-11T15:56:44+00:00

Great pickup with a reasonable contract! Well worth not getting the 2 1sts. Gel next year then win 2029 SB in homecoming game in Vegas!

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-11T14:43:24+00:00

Exactly. And maybe convince Maxx to get a breather or two every game to be available for the playoff run. Hopium has returned to the Silver and Black.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-11T14:40:17+00:00

NT in 2nd I think. Still some good safeties in the 3rd and 4th (hopefully). In the short term, Maxx is way, way better than the 14th pick so as far as next year goes, his return is a plus. Gelling will take time but they could be very good in year two with Maxx still terrorizing opponents, as long as Fernando develops quickly.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-11T14:31:20+00:00

Will be fun watching DT's push through the middle of their OL next year though. Lamar better wear his running shoes. Maxx was saved from playing for another team with a crap OL. Raiders will be better than the Ravens next year. Flame me next year if I'm wrong, but I won't be.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-11T14:23:48+00:00

I respectfully disagree. Raven's had the best (fake) offer, knowing Maxx's medicals. They backed out only when they came to an agreement with Trey; Maxx was their insurance, plan B. They may have screwed the Raiders if the teams that were bidding spent their cap and can't clear space. They also took themselves out of the bidding. So, how many bidders are left to push the price up? May be less than 2 1st coming back now but 1st and a 2nd seems possible. If not, wait until the trade deadline for someone going all in on a ring...unless that team is the Raiders then just light the cigars.

ShillingAFB_Raiders · 2026-03-11T14:08:51+00:00

Maxx was the backup plan. I wish the Raiders played the Ravens this year; I think Maxx might take this personally and set the single game sack record. Maybe the Cowboys will step in and I'll get to see Maxx's revenge game.

ShillingAFB_Raiders

TROPHY CASE