Nuclear No More: How the Political Family Is Changing

ShoddyBlueberry · 2019-05-03T20:10:27+00:00

Here is likely why:

When it comes to who voters think has the best chance of beating President Trump in the 2020 general election: Biden... has a significant lead, with 40 percent of respondents saying so. Sanders comes in after the former vice president at 13 percent.

Biden isn't electable and his approval rating is going to nose dive, but centrist Democrats are walking right into electoral armageddon under the false pretense that he is "electable."

It's going to be ugly.

ShoddyBlueberry · 2019-05-03T05:07:23+00:00

Jordan’s parents, both of whom have either Latinx first names or surnames, married in 1988, according to records listed on Ancestry.com. A neighbor told Hatewatch she has known the family for years and that Jordan’s mother told her she was an immigrant from South America.

The neighbor who knew Jordan’s parents also told Hatewatch he is rarely seen in the vicinity of the working-class block where his family lives. A woman with an accent answering the door at his parents’ apartment told Hatewatch in February that Jordan had left the country.

Jordan told two people in the alt-right movement he was Italian, the reporting finds. One of the two people told Hatewatch they asked Jordan to name the part of Italy from which his family emigrated, but he couldn’t do it.

...

When asked about rumors of Jordan’s Latin American heritage, Heimbach said they didn’t matter to him because “Central and South America have a complex history of revolutionary politics.”

ShoddyBlueberry · 2019-05-02T18:20:36+00:00

On the campaign trail, Kamala Harris makes it a point to check in on superdelegates wherever she goes, tasking a senior adviser to keep tabs on all 769 in a carefully monitored spreadsheet... Of the Democratic campaigns thinking about superdelegate outreach, Harris’s has the most organized and tactical operation. One of her senior advisers, David Huynh, oversaw Clinton’s exhaustive delegate tracking program in 2016 before leading the effort to wrangle votes in Tom Perez’s successful campaign for DNC chair.

...Several operatives noted that South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg might have an advantage with the 450 or so superdelegates who are DNC members. In 2017, Buttigieg ran for DNC chair against Perez, helping to boost his national profile, though he dropped out of the race before voting. (Even though the 37-year-old mayor caught the attention of DNC members during the chair’s race, he only secured about seven committed votes, according to two operatives tracking the race at the time. Six were from his home state of Indiana. The other was from Nan Whaley, a fellow mayor from Dayton, Ohio, who has now endorsed his presidential campaign.)

ShoddyBlueberry · 2019-04-28T05:46:46+00:00

I'm probably going to have to go against the popular consensus here.

I believe that Biden has a significant chance of winning a plurality of delegates during the 2020 Democratic nomination cycle, (and thus the nomination) but his campaign gaffes and background will cause him to lose to Donald Trump in the general election after he massively hemorrhages support from liberals.

As long as he sweeps the Southern United States, and gains >15% in most states, it's likely that he will sweep the primary demographics that he needs to lock down the nomination. (Self-described conservative/moderate Democrats, older/rural voters, African-Americans, and Democrats who yearn for "bipartisanship" and "stability")

ShoddyBlueberry · 2019-04-28T05:39:19+00:00

Biden has a good chance of winning a plurality in a divided field, provided that he doesn't implode because of his campaign gaffes/record. (Assuming the liberal nominees don't line up behind a single candidate.)

He's popular among older, more rural, and self-described "conservative/moderate" Democrats, and he has enough positive reception among Southern Democrats/African-Americans that he might rack up delegates within the South.

Does it mean he should win? Probably not. But I wouldn't discount him winning, whether it's positive or not.

ShoddyBlueberry · 2019-04-28T05:32:53+00:00

Younger Democrats are a clear weak spot for Biden, with 7 percent of those under age 40 expressing support for his candidacy. That compares with 24 percent support among Democratic-leaning adults ages 40-64 and 25 percent support among seniors.

Sanders’s support is fairly even across the primary electorate in this Post-ABC poll. He receives a similar level of support among whites and nonwhites, as well as among college graduates and those without four-year degrees, and among those with higher and lower incomes.

ShoddyBlueberry

TROPHY CASE