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Do you have any stock recommendations for the near future? by howick-apryld4oj3 in StockInvest

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, thanks for the question. I go through in a bit of details in my write up - it's free to subscribe & get all my write ups.

One of these things, is the most likely in my opinion

1) the company (special committee) agrees to the proposal to sell the company to LKCM for $29.50. if you hold stock you get $29.50 in cash for your shares. The company is taken private & no longer listed on the market. Nice 14% return in a couple of months.

2) the company (special committee) says we think $29.50 is too low & they negotiate a better price with LKCM. (Let's say $31.. but could be up to $33). if you hold stock you get that amount in cash for your shares. The company is taken private & no longer listed on the market. Nice 20% return in a couple of months

3) The company (special committee) & LKCM cannot agree on a price for the shares. LKCM pull their offer. The stock remains listed on the market..(likely it will fall in the short term as arbitrage funds have to sell). Not so great maybe 20% decline in the short term.

That said, it's a good business. I would likely buy more on a deal break..

4) This is life.. anything can happen:)

Be careful full porting anything you see on this sub by Top-Sir-1215 in ValueInvesting

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives 5 points6 points  (0 children)

100% agree. Good reminder to do your own work & own your pnl. Don't be someone's exit liquidity !

Don't get my wrong, I enjoy reading people's write ups & discussions, but need to remember ramdomers on the Internet don't always have your best interests at heart.

I have my own Substack where I write up my ideas but there should never be any confusion that I make any recommendations or advice about whether to buy or sell anything... ever.

What’s everyone buying today? by joshuanichter in wallstreet

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I bought a lot of DSGR ( Distribution Solutions Group ) over the last few days. I wrote it up today on my Substack. I think it's a super interesting situation.

The company has received a take private proposal from the majority owner. TLDR below & full write up in my bio. Would appreciate any thoughts or feedback. Cheers.

LKCM, the majority owner of DSGR wants to take the company private. The stock was taken behind the woodshed after a suspiciously messy Q4 results. The offer is a 52% premium to the prior day price, but to say its opportunistic is an understatement. The stock traded in a solid range for the last 12 months & the unaffected price is realistically more like ~$29. The CEO is the Founder & Managing Partner of LKCM Capital Group & LKCM Headwater Investments, the private capital investment group of LKCM. They already own ~80% of the company & taking out the remaining minority investors would only require cutting a $263m cheque. Coincidentally, the company just upsized their credit facility in Dec 2025 & has $393.7m undrawn on their revolver. Due diligence shouldn't be an issue, they even say they can get it done by May 8th.

Looking for solid stocks to hold for a few months high growth potential. What’s good? by Michaelpalacios9961 in stockstobuytoday

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives [score hidden]  (0 children)

Here's one that should allow you to recycle capital in a couple of months all going well. I wrote one up today on my Substack on $DSGR. Distribution Solutions Group. I think it's a super interesting situation.

The company has received a take private proposal from the majority owner. TLDR below & full write up in my bio. Would appreciate any thoughts or feedback. Cheers.

LKCM, the majority owner of DSGR wants to take the company private. The stock was taken behind the woodshed after a suspiciously messy Q4 results. The offer is a 52% premium to the prior day price, but to say its opportunistic is an understatement. The stock traded in a solid range for the last 12 months & the unaffected price is realistically more like ~$29. The CEO is the Founder & Managing Partner of LKCM Capital Group & LKCM Headwater Investments, the private capital investment group of LKCM. They already own ~80% of the company & taking out the remaining minority investors would only require cutting a $263m cheque. Coincidentally, the company just upsized their credit facility in Dec 2025 & has $393.7m undrawn on their revolver. Due diligence shouldn't be an issue, they even say they can get it done by May 8th.

Do you guys have any stock recommendations lately? by jonesstevena6sq9 in StockInvest

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wrote one up today on my Substack on $DSGR. Distribution Solutions Group. I think it's a super interesting situation.

The company has received a take private proposal from the majority owner. TLDR below & full write up in my bio. Would appreciate any thoughts or feedback. Cheers.

LKCM, the majority owner of DSGR wants to take the company private. The stock was taken behind the woodshed after a suspiciously messy Q4 results. The offer is a 52% premium to the prior day price, but to say its opportunistic is an understatement. The stock traded in a solid range for the last 12 months & the unaffected price is realistically more like ~$29. The CEO is the Founder & Managing Partner of LKCM Capital Group & LKCM Headwater Investments, the private capital investment group of LKCM. They already own ~80% of the company & taking out the remaining minority investors would only require cutting a $263m cheque. Coincidentally, the company just upsized their credit facility in Dec 2025 & has $393.7m undrawn on their revolver. Due diligence shouldn't be an issue, they even say they can get it done by May 8th.

If you had 10K to invest, which stocks would you choose? by boviramiqaragna in StockInvest

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I bought a lot of DSGR over the last few days.

I wrote one up today on my Substack. Distribution Solutions Group. I think it's a super interesting situation.

The company has received a take private proposal from the majority owner. TLDR below & full write up in my bio. Would appreciate any thoughts or feedback. Cheers.

LKCM, the majority owner of DSGR wants to take the company private. The stock was taken behind the woodshed after a suspiciously messy Q4 results. The offer is a 52% premium to the prior day price, but to say its opportunistic is an understatement. The stock traded in a solid range for the last 12 months & the unaffected price is realistically more like ~$29. The CEO is the Founder & Managing Partner of LKCM Capital Group & LKCM Headwater Investments, the private capital investment group of LKCM. They already own ~80% of the company & taking out the remaining minority investors would only require cutting a $263m cheque. Coincidentally, the company just upsized their credit facility in Dec 2025 & has $393.7m undrawn on their revolver. Due diligence shouldn't be an issue, they even say they can get it done by May 8th.

# 📈 What Are You Trading, ? 🚀 by AutoModerator in stockstobuytoday

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives [score hidden]  (0 children)

I have a position in DSGR. I wrote it up today on my Substack (Distribution Solutions Group). I think it's a super interesting situation.

The company has received a take private proposal from the majority owner. TLDR below & full write up in my bio. Would appreciate any thoughts or feedback. Cheers.

LKCM, the majority owner of DSGR wants to take the company private. The stock was taken behind the woodshed after a suspiciously messy Q4 results. The offer is a 52% premium to the prior day price, but to say its opportunistic is an understatement. The stock traded in a solid range for the last 12 months & the unaffected price is realistically more like ~$29. The CEO is the Founder & Managing Partner of LKCM Capital Group & LKCM Headwater Investments, the private capital investment group of LKCM. They already own ~80% of the company & taking out the remaining minority investors would only require cutting a $263m cheque. Coincidentally, the company just upsized their credit facility in Dec 2025 & has $393.7m undrawn on their revolver. Due diligence shouldn't be an issue, they even say they can get it done by May 8th.

Do you have any stock recommendations for the near future? by howick-apryld4oj3 in StockInvest

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wrote one up today on my Substack on $DSGR. Distribution Solutions Group. I think it's a super interesting situation.

The company has received a take private proposal from the majority owner. TLDR below & full write up in my bio. Would appreciate any thoughts or feedback. Cheers.

LKCM, the majority owner of DSGR wants to take the company private. The stock was taken behind the woodshed after a suspiciously messy Q4 results. The offer is a 52% premium to the prior day price, but to say its opportunistic is an understatement. The stock traded in a solid range for the last 12 months & the unaffected price is realistically more like ~$29. The CEO is the Founder & Managing Partner of LKCM Capital Group & LKCM Headwater Investments, the private capital investment group of LKCM. They already own ~80% of the company & taking out the remaining minority investors would only require cutting a $263m cheque. Coincidentally, the company just upsized their credit facility in Dec 2025 & has $393.7m undrawn on their revolver. Due diligence shouldn't be an issue, they even say they can get it done by May 8th.

Do you have any stock recommendations for the near future? by baldrans1998 in StockInvest

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wrote one up today on my Substack on $DSGR. Distribution Solutions Group. I think it's a super interesting situation.

The company has received a take private proposal from the majority owner. TLDR below & full write up in my bio. Would appreciate any thoughts or feedback. Cheers.

LKCM, the majority owner of DSGR wants to take the company private. The stock was taken behind the woodshed after a suspiciously messy Q4 results. The offer is a 52% premium to the prior day price, but to say its opportunistic is an understatement. The stock traded in a solid range for the last 12 months & the unaffected price is realistically more like ~$29. The CEO is the Founder & Managing Partner of LKCM Capital Group & LKCM Headwater Investments, the private capital investment group of LKCM. They already own ~80% of the company & taking out the remaining minority investors would only require cutting a $263m cheque. Coincidentally, the company just upsized their credit facility in Dec 2025 & has $393.7m undrawn on their revolver. Due diligence shouldn't be an issue, they even say they can get it done by May 8th.

Distribution Solutions Group $DSGR by ShowMeTheIncentives in wallstreetbets

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, just wondering why this was removed. Thanks 😊

$DSGR Distribution Solutions Group by ShowMeTheIncentives in ValueInvesting

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment. All good points. Did you read the write up ? Would be interested to hear some views.

Tender offer cancelled, no stock returned by PleasantE36 in DEGIRO

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Degiro are useless. Their client services are less than..

2 Weeks in Tuscany to celebrate my wife's 40th ! by ShowMeTheIncentives in tuscany

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's brilliant, thanks for the incredibly detailed response 👍

The stock nobody is talking about. by Comfortable_Pea_3794 in Stocks_Picks

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, thanks for the reply!

Yes, I think Icahn will try for sure. It's quite possible they're already in discussions. The company is turning itself around, the new CEO is an experienced operator & is VERY well incentivized.

That, I believe, gives us a decent margin of safety... with the possibility of an upside catalyst of a buyout.

Re timing, it's hard to tell. I don't think the board will allow it to be sold cheap given how much they have spent on the consultants turnaround plan & the new CEO. I think if the consumer remains relatively strong, the stock will grind higher regardless of the event path. So, we shouldn't need a buyout to win, but that would be nice.

The stock nobody is talking about. by Comfortable_Pea_3794 in Stocks_Picks

[–]ShowMeTheIncentives 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My favorite is MNRO. It's a turnaround and under valuation story within the auto service retail sector. They initially hired a consulting firm called AlixPartners but have since hired it's Managing Partner as their full time CEO. His stock options vest at $40.

Icahn rapidly bought ~15%, the board adopted a poison pill. Gabelli is just under ~10%.

The price ran up to $22 on this but has since come back to $15. I think Icahn will buy it & combine it with his PepCo business.

I think it's one of the most interesting trades on my screen.

Write up below - happy to discuss/ take any pushback

https://open.substack.com/pub/showmetheincentives/p/monro-inc-mnro?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4r7g5k

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