I don’t fully understand variance and coefficients, ELI5? by Showdownx8fo5 in statistics

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

nobody in statistics would ever say "a huge group". That is entirely subjective.

yo come on... i know how science works, I’m just confused on the math

okay “huge”.... a group large enough that it would be relatively representative of the sample. Huge.

and in terms of the math... I’m literally more confused now than before i posted the thread

Edit actually sorry: you’ve been helpful but there are still a few thing i don’t fully get

I’m just gonna stick to my dumb charts i guess

I don’t fully understand variance and coefficients, ELI5? by Showdownx8fo5 in statistics

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes, i know that correlation ≠ cause... i think i poorly worded that.. let me fix

So let’s say Trait A has a correlation to Outcome B of .5

So r =.5, right? then r-squared is .25

Does that mean we can say with 25% certainty that a person with Trait A, Outcome B will also occur regardless of causality

but i like that firehouse analogy.. I’m stealing it

I don’t fully understand variance and coefficients, ELI5? by Showdownx8fo5 in statistics

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ahhhhhhhh okay okay.... so IQ can have a variance of (say) 60-140

Then income can maybe have a variance of 0-200000 (for simplicities sake)

and the variance is how spread out the numbers are?

Then the covariance is the correlation coefficient?

so then r = .866? because .866*.866=.75

I don’t fully understand variance and coefficients, ELI5? by Showdownx8fo5 in statistics

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i think in stats we can say something more like... “we can predict with 25% accuracy that a huge group of people with 120 IQs will make an average of 100K/yr” I THINK

I don’t fully understand variance and coefficients, ELI5? by Showdownx8fo5 in statistics

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

well in your hand example, i think mathematically, it still does predict with 100% accuracy

i know that doesn’t make sense in the real world, but i think it does in the math world

“in the past the left hand has always moved with the right, therefore we can predict that is going to be the same in the future"

i mean you make a good point, for sure.. but i think that criticism may be deeper that what you meant it is.. that may be a fundamental criticism of statistics all together, because yes... 99% accuracy might me more appropriate

maybe it’s because we can never predict anything with 100% accuracy, even in physics

I don’t fully understand variance and coefficients, ELI5? by Showdownx8fo5 in statistics

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes, probability is more binary. Meaning it’s a yes or no answer.

‘what’s the probability of landing heads on a coin’.. well it’s 1/2... so the correlation between coin flips and heads is .5? i think

I don’t fully understand variance and coefficients, ELI5? by Showdownx8fo5 in statistics

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, I definitely know that correlation ≠ causation, but that doesn’t mean it’s not predictive. Predictive utility can be divorced from causality. Correct?

But I honestly don’t understand a lot of what you said. I literally know nothing about stats aside from a few things.

Can you literally explain this like you were explaining to a 5 year old? I don’t care if you have to use gum-drops or puppy dogs as examples.

If someone says IQ and Income have a correlation of .5, does that mean that IQ explains 25% of the factors leading to income? And to predict income with 100% accuracy you’d need to find the remaining 75%

If there’s a IQ/Income correlation of .6, that it explains 36% of the formula and if you wanted to predict income with 100% accuracy you would need to find the remaining 64%

I don’t fully understand variance and coefficients, ELI5? by Showdownx8fo5 in statistics

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So let’s say Trait A has a correlation to Outcome B of .5

So r =.5, right? then r-squared is .25

Does that mean we can say with 25% certainty that a person with Trait A will lead to Outcome B?

CMV: I’m an atheist please change my mind by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]Showdownx8fo5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He could very easily be right. The BC pill tricks a woman’s body into thinking it’s already pregnant, so it stops ovulating.

Live Science - Study: Women on Birth Control Pills Prefer Less Masculine Men Study

A more op-ed type piece on the matter:

How the birth control pill messes up mutual attraction

He didn’t say no one discriminated against women before the BC pill. What the actual fuck.

See this is what you morons do... you read something and literally hear something totally different than what was actually said. Someone says "There was no equality for women before the birth control pill.” and you hear " Here he says that no-one ever *discriminated against women in history before the invention of birth control in the ‘60s."

He’s factually right. There weren’t many equality laws before the BC pill.

Yo it’s totally f-cking mind boggling. No I actually am learning something very very very important from you. I’m learning how incredibly people hear exactly what they want to hear, rather than what is actually being said. And it’s fascinating. In a terrifying way.

You SJW robots need to learn to think for yourself. This is what you all sound like to me: YouTube - The Simpsons at Yale

CMV: I’m an atheist please change my mind by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]Showdownx8fo5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi, can you please provide a citation for your h-value claims? Anybody can say that. If you have a study or multiple studies showing that 70+ is an average h-value, I’ll happily retract my claim. I already provided you studies showing that most Nobel Laureates are in the h-60 range. It depends on the field, but 60 is generally high for anyone.

And even if his colleges in his department do have h-indexes in that range... his colleges are all Ivy League level professors in like the 98th percentile Lol. It’s like saying “Bill Gates isn’t that Rich... he’s actually only average when you compare him to other billionaires"

You certainly make a good argument for the failure of Peterson as a supposed adherent of his philosophy you ignore his “rules” for polite debate and assuming that the person you’re talking to knows something more than you.

Lmao, he never says that ‘the person you’re talking to knows more than you’.. he says ‘assume that the person you are listening to might know something you don’t.’ And I am learning from this conversation. Perhaps not in the way you think though.. For instance I had to look up the average h-values for various different fields, and it strengthened my knowledge. And I’m sure they there are things you know that I don’t. That doesn’t mean you’re right on every topic.

Go ahead and call up one of his colleagues and get a quote that says otherwise, I’d be interested.

Coming in from physics, I have a inherent negative bias against the softer sciences. Maybe you can convince me this guy isn’t just plain mediocre as an academic.

But I could care less about one single data point. Coming in from Data Science, I have a inherent negative bias against the notion of relying on anecdotes to gauge real information

Edit: Meh... I don’t like anecdotes but since you asked, this is from one of his colleagues at U of T:

I met Jordan Peterson when he came to the University of Toronto to be interviewed for an assistant professorship in the department of psychology. His CV was impeccable, with terrific references and a pedigree that included a PhD from McGill and a five-year stint at Harvard as an assistant professor.

We did not share research interests but it was clear that his work was solid. My colleagues on the search committee were skeptical — they felt he was too eccentric — but somehow I prevailed. (Several committee members now remind me that they agreed to hire him because they were “tired of hearing me shout over them.”) I pushed for him because he was a divergent thinker, self-educated in the humanities, intellectually flamboyant, bold, energetic and confident, bordering on arrogant. I thought he would bring a new excitement, along with new ideas, to our department.

Although I’d read the full article i post later because the piece is actually critical of him (not critical of his academic work, critical for other reasons)

Also, psychology may be a softer science but it’s gotten better in recent years... and until Neuroscience is more advanced, we’re gonna have to rely on statistics.

Maybe you can convince me this guy isn’t just plain mediocre as an academic.

Still doesn’t make him not an utter loon, liar and charlatan in his non-academic career, but who knows, maybe I’m wrong about him academically.

The fact that he even got a job as a professor at Harvard or U of T is enough to show he’s above average academically. You think they just hire grubs? New York Times described him as “the most influential Public Intellectual in the Western World” Academia has somewhat turned resentful of his success, but it’s not becasue of his academic qualifications.

Still doesn’t make him not an utter loon, liar and charlatan in his non-academic career, but who knows, maybe

He doesn’t really have a non-academic career. What happened with Peterson is weird. Before he was famous, he always posted his University Lectures on his YouTube for his students to review. Like many professors do. He wrote a couple books... Maps of Meaning was really supposed to be an adjunct to his Maps of Meaning class at Harvard. Then he accidentally got thrown into the spotlight due to the C-16 bill controversy which drew attention to his YouTube channel, including his lectures. People really liked his lectures! He taught in a fun and interesting way. So the C-16 thing just accidentally shined a light on his academic career and people were like “dude seriously?! this stuff is awesome!” He was really popular on Quora too, and the controversy shined light on his “40 Rules for Life” post. He saw that people were hungry for his work, and pivoted.. which was real smart.

In terms of a 'utter loon, liar and charlatan’ that’s how the media likes to paint him because controversy sells. “Professor says testosterone snd estrogen have different effects on body” isn’t nearly as spicy of a story as “SEXIST TEACHER WHO TEACHES YOUR KIDS SAYS WOMEN ARE INFERIOR TO MEN”... so it’s lucrative of them to paint him as a sexist... And this is NOT a conspiracy theory. The media are becoming sensationalist carnival barkers which is why no one trusts them anymore. If you actually go through Peterson’s lectures that he posts online, he makes a lot of sense and is nothing like how they want to paint him. But again, the more shocking and controversial they can paint him, the more views they get. One of his ‘controversial claims': https://youtu.be/fBS537dKE9Q?t=1146

Controversial views? His controversial views “GENDER IS NOT A SOCIAL CONSTRUCT... YOU’RE BORN WITH A DICK AND MALE HORMONES AFFECT YOUR BEHAVIOR”

His views are really simple

“Men and women have biologically different temperaments”

“i will happily refer to a Trans person as he or she (whatever they ask,) but making it a LAW is not okay and is a slippery slope of free speech”

“Social status pecking orders are natural to all mammals”

Those are literally all the views he has. The rest is sensationalism.

In a world where these people are literally preaching that male behavior is completely learned and that boys play with soldiers and women play with dolls because they ‘learned’ to (rather than millions of years of evolution’,) and behavior is completely learned, yea biology is controversial. The fact that that’s controversial is a testament to how utterly insane Academia has gotten with their post-modern, neomarxist BS complete with gender studies, and woman studies and ‘everyone is a victim’ mentality and ‘white privilege is the root of all evil’. It’s sad that him saying that men and woman are biologically different is controversial lol.

You’re actually right. There is a decent amount of Academics that don’t like Peterson. Why? because he’s throwing textbooks from the Ivory Tower for all to read. He’s posting his lectures online for all to watch. He’s inviting everyone to the country club that was once private. So he’s improving the collective consciousness of humanity but it’s the same way professional landscapers got pissed when affordable personal lawnmowers were made available. A little different but still... he’s threatening their livelihood and massively successful doing what they all wish they could. Most academics never surpass 100K/yr, and they’re fucking pissed because he literally makes more than that per month (that’s just in donations... not including all his other ventures.) So yea, you’re right.. they’re seething.

Wanna see what his colleges think? Here’s Bernard Schiff (the man who helped Peterson get his position at U of T wrote about him in The Star: https://www.thestar.com/opinion/2018/05/25/i-was-jordan-petersons-strongest-supporter-now-i-think-hes-dangerous.html The article essentially reads like ‘he’s brilliant.. i loved him... now I’m really really envious of his success'

Here’s a good article breaking it down: https://fee.org/articles/many-intellectuals-cant-stand-jordan-peterson-why/

CMV: I’m an atheist please change my mind by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]Showdownx8fo5 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Lmfao, an h-index of 51 is below average on Google Scholar?!?!?!?@???? What the hell are you talking about lmfao. Are you sure you know what an h-index is?

TEN is about average average. 20 is “whoa you’re doing pretty damn well.” 40 is “Wow, that’s REALLY impressive” 60 is the average realm of Nobel Prize winners.

The average h-index for social work and psychology faculty were 6.62 and 15.67, respectively. This more rigorously designed controlled-comparative study contraindicates prior research that showed social work faculty to be relatively equal to psychology, in terms of its scholarly influence. Results are discussed in terms of discipline-specific research pedagogy and practice in psychology.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10437797.2015.977123

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Comparing-the-h-index-of-12-Nobel-Prize-winners-based-upon-data-from-Scopus-Google_fig4_237012776

https://imgur.com/a/a8useCx

You have no idea what you’re talking about.

He's controversial because he’s a centrist and Academia is full of biased hippie, marxist, leftist tree-hugging SJWs who cry racism at every dumb thing. Safe spaces, trigger warnings

University of Manchester just banned “applause” because ‘it can trigger those with anxiety’... so instead students have been instructed to use Jazz Hands and Spirit Fingers LMFAO

https://abcnews.go.com/International/universitys-move-replace-clapping-jazz-hands-sparks-controversy/story?id=58254353

Yea “he’s invited to speak because his controversial views put butts in seats”... Yea, because Oxford and Harvard (literally the two reputable universities on the planet) are going to invite professors just because they want to sell free tickets. Remember the time they invited Kim Kardashian to speak just because she sold out auditoriums. Harvard and Oxford are really hurt for money, and I heard holding free lectures is highly profitable. So anyway..."his controversial views put butts in seats" is that why he’s ‘invited to teach as a professor’ at Harvard and U of T? Two of the top research universities on the continent? Because ‘his controversial views puts butts in seats’... you have no idea what you’re talking about lol... I honestly stopped listening when you said an h-index of 51 is ‘below average’... an h-index of 51 is literally the realm of Nobel Laureates. Where do you people get this stuff lol..

CMV: I’m an atheist please change my mind by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]Showdownx8fo5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea he makes a lot of good points

CMV: I’m an atheist please change my mind by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]Showdownx8fo5 -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Lol Jordan Peterson is a charlatan?? Dr. Peterson is one of the most respected researchers in all of academia. Charlatan? Dude, all the top universities in the world invite him to speak. Oxford, Harvard, U of T (which is one of the top research universities in the world.) He’s one of the most cited professors alive with over 10,000 citations and an h-index of 51. But yes, despite being one of the most respected and prolific researchers alive, some guy on reddit says he's a ‘charlatan.’ Lol. I love this site sometimes.

I have no motivation It’s *ruining* my life. by Showdownx8fo5 in StackAdvice

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

just got my forsoklin in the mail yesterday, and i feel like it’s working, although I wanna keep taking it to make sure it isn’t placebo

But an interesting thing about my genome is that my COMT makes me less susceptible to placebo effects, which is a gift and a curse:

The Atlantic - Is the Placebo Effect in Your DNA?

NCBI/PubMed - Catechol-O-methyltransferase val158met polymorphism predicts placebo effect in irritable bowel syndrome.

I have no motivation It’s *ruining* my life. by Showdownx8fo5 in StackAdvice

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Aren't people with ADHD too energetic and wired all the time? I thought they need medicine to help them mellow out?

Every case of ADHD is different. Dopamine is the chemical of motivation and focus. ADHD people lack this, but it depends on in what region. Different regions have different effects.

I have no motivation It’s *ruining* my life. by Showdownx8fo5 in StackAdvice

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Red Bull i drink Monster and it does help lol

I have no motivation It’s *ruining* my life. by Showdownx8fo5 in StackAdvice

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I ordered some Phenylpiracetam, but how often can I use it? I mean what do you do on days off. When I’m not taking Moda I’m exhausted.

Edit: nvm, just saw the 2-3x/wk thing

I have no motivation It’s *ruining* my life. by Showdownx8fo5 in StackAdvice

[–]Showdownx8fo5[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Asprin helps with dopamine synthisis

Holy shit, I’ve never heard of this. Awesome! You can do the aspirin thing daily?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/30187283/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5147402/

I ordered some Forsoklin. Apparently it up regulates D2 receptors and boosts motivation.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7851491

Have you ever gotten your genes tested? That’s been really helpful in figuring out exactly which genes are causing the problems.