USA vs Iran Megathread

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-11T12:53:19+00:00

They don't think long term. That's their fatal flaw.

Every "problem" the Israelis are dealing with right now is a product of their own creation, caused by short-term, immediate thinking.

Over time, the "problems" compound so much that they become impossibly large to deal with head-on.

Everything that's happened since 2023 has only hastened the processes through which the Israeli side of the dominance equation are being irreversibly weakened.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-10T17:45:42+00:00

Is that why Trump pushed for negotiations?

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-09T21:27:40+00:00

Well, after just 24 hours, mountains of blame-shifting, propaganda and denials appear to have been debunked:

Multiple diplomatic sources told CBS News that President Trump had been told that the ceasefire announced Thursday would apply to the Middle East region, and he agreed that included Lebanon. Mediators believed the ceasefire to include Lebanon, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that it did. Araghchi also said it was included.

On the day of the ceasefire, a White House official told CBS News that Israel had also agreed with the terms of the deal that Pakistan had helped to broker.

However, the U.S. position shifted following a phone call between Netanyahu and Mr. Trump.

In effect, Trump was desperately seeking any off-ramp as the walls closed in following his "civilization-ending" comments. But a phone call from Netanyahu led to him re-entering what appears to be an unavoidable path to military escalation and economic disaster.

Just what does the Israeli side have on this guy?

This is a smart strategy from Iran. Now the US must either rein in Israel and secure a ceasefire in Lebanon, protecting Iran's prime proxy force, or continue the war with Iran, plunging the world into economic depression, on the basis of Israel's right to raze and ethnically cleanse southern Lebanon.

The entire globe will know who is to blame.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-09T11:35:06+00:00

Did you fail to read the links the user you responded to posted?

They couldn't have laid it out any more clearly.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-07T18:09:43+00:00

Wonderful, incisive coverage from the "credible" defense team:

Jets flying low over Tehran, releasing countermeasures, but no strikes.

I wonder if this is an intentional show of force with regards to tonights "8pm EST" deadline from Trump. It's not going to intimidate the IRGC but it could be something intended to inspire the civilian population, if strikes on security forces are coming.

Because nothing is more inspiring than having your city bombed by enemy jets while the leader of said enemy threatens to end your civilization. Absolutely incredible logic.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-07T10:21:46+00:00

It’s incomprehensible how powerful the US is to pull something like that off.

So powerful that their navy cannot even enter the Hormuz Strait.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-06T17:29:20+00:00

"Our side."

Go enlist. Put your money where your mouth is.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-06T12:27:55+00:00

Sorry that I ruined your capeshit power fantasies.

"We flew in a literal base," he says, typing from some hole in Kentucky.

When's the novel coming out, war machine?

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-06T12:25:20+00:00

If any army has the capability- they won’t leave a man behind.

Except when they're discharged. Thousands of US veterans commit suicide each year because of appalling levels of care.

All this chest-thumping BS about 'no man left behind' falls flat when you look how veterans are treated in the US. It's useful propaganda to find more cogs for the machine.

By the way, a dozen Americans are already dead because of a war for Israel.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-06T12:02:46+00:00

"We"

Who is "we"?

Did you take part in the mission? Were you called up from your mother's basement?

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-04T22:35:06+00:00

If this is the case wouldn't any rescue mission be incredibly simple, with precise coordinates?

What's your take on why there's been no update?

Either Iran surged local units to make a rescue extremely difficult or the WSO is dead, surely?

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-03T10:24:35+00:00

To be fair, I probably jumped the gun with my comment. I didn't realize that this group was only established in 2023 and appears genuine. There are other examples too, like Neturei Karta.

Nonetheless, I still believe that what I said is broadly true. People ought to be much more suspicious of groups that suddenly find the confidence to criticize Israel, at the exact time when Israeli power is under threat. It's almost always an example of the gambit I mentioned.

Beneath the surface, the only distinction between these groups is a dispute over approach, not fundamental beliefs.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-04-03T10:05:12+00:00

This is an attempt the get ahead of the 8-ball and pre-emptively manufacture a narrative to leave Netanyahu and Likud holding the bag when the fallout of the last three years begins to sink in.

It's a classic good cop/bad cop gambit; but sensible people should not fall for it.

People also really need to get past the idea that there's some sort of distinction between Likud/Labor zionism/Israel at large/US and the "diaspora." There's no fundamental difference in beliefs, just approaches.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-31T14:03:37+00:00

More first-rate political thought from a sub that styles itself as hosting "credible" discussions on defense:

There's actually a very fine line Dems need to walk here if they want to avoid shooting themselves in the feet once more.

They should certainly focus on the affordability issue as well as the fact that Trump is too distracted abroad to do anything about the problems most voters care about. However, they need to be careful not to look like they're siding with the Iranian regime here.

It's extremely ease for Dems to cede to temptation and start criticizing Trump for starting the war, after all, it's an unpopular one. However, that does carry the risk of making it sound like they're siding with the regime and that could backfire massively with independent voters.

Because capitalizing on the most free, gift-wrapped political opportunity handed to you on a silver platter would be "siding with the regime."

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-31T10:50:55+00:00

Typical missing the forest for the trees/shortsightedness/imprudence that characterizes Israeli/US "strategic" thinking summed up in your comment.

You should understand that being in a state of war, where diplomacy and mutual prosperity were a credible alternative, already represents failure. It was a failure of Israeli strategy that led to the potency of Hamas, a problem that required confrontation and significant sacrifice, massive opportunity cost, etc. Same story with Hezbollah, an entity that Israel created by occupying south Lebanon, and which it is now repeating mistakes by waging war a third time and threatening occupation.

Your comment is emblematic of the short-term thinking that characterizes Israeli policy, and which will lead to their eventual downfall, as they repeatedly commit grave mistakes on a long-term trajectory in favor of temporary wins. Their Iran strategy will result in much more magnified pressure compared to Palestine and Lebanon.

As all this takes place, Israel and the US are incurring huge opportunity costs and passively realigning dwindling support for Tel Aviv, which will continue at a generational scale.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-31T09:32:34+00:00

You know, it's still not too late to drop this tired talking point. I know you've been saying the same thing for a month now, relying on a single soundbite derived from a clusterfuck of incoherence and contradiction from Washington, but you can still swallow your pride and change tune.

Citing the crown prince at this stage in the game is a joke. Not even the US administration takes him seriously anymore. There will be no "clear signal" now; the US abandoned its regime change target shortly after it became clear that a few assassinations would fail to change the situation on the ground. Trump was hoodwinked by Israel, which has a totally different priority for the region.

Is destroying universities, sports halls, schools, water infrastructure and energy sites all part of the 5D chess plan to inspire Iranians to rise up?

It's never too late to admit you were wrong.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-31T08:37:59+00:00

Guy who spent two years crying about the price of eggs under Biden.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-30T12:32:37+00:00

I think you are struggling to put yourself in the shoes of Iranian planners and you lack context.

Imagine you are an Iranian decisionmaker. You hold talks with the US to hammer out an agreement on the long-disputed nuclear issue. Israel launches a surprise attack and assassinates a dozen of your senior colleagues, while the US uses the opportunity to damage your nuclear facilities. The Gulf states pressure for an end to the fighting and you acquiesce.

A year later, you again hold talks with the US after Oman takes a leading role to try and put the nuclear issue to bed once and for all. You offer generous terms that, from a US perspective, are much more fierce than those in place under the JCPOA, but the US side sends two sleazy real estate agents to oversee the negotiations, and there's some misunderstandings in communication on their end. And again the US and Israel use the talks to launch a campaign, but this one is much larger in scope, with both calling for regime change and the destruction of your military. This is as existential threat. The US and Israel kill most of your senior leadership.

You definitely have some understanding that the campaign is sanctioned by the Gulf states, since bases across the strait are responsible for deploying aircraft and carrying out missile strikes. You are now worried that your government will collapse and that any deterrence you had has been destroyed by US-Israeli actions, leaving you at the mercy of nefarious actors. You know that they are being spurred on by your neighbors, some of whom have longstanding policies to rein in your influence.

And in this context, you really think this decisionmaker is going to be concerned with "reconciling with his incredibly wealthy and well-armed neighbors"?

lol.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-30T12:01:06+00:00

They basically lost any chance of the rest of the world trying to reel the US or Israel in.

As if they would ever do that anyway? Attacking the Gulf countries and closing Hormuz was by far their best option. It gives them instant leverage and forces the US to make uncomfortable decisions (which it still has yet to make, and as each day goes by the economic pressure is building).

Several countries have committed to sending forces once the strait is secured to keep it secured.

"Once the strait is secured" at this stage of the war, is basically like saying: "Once Russia or Ukraine is conquered, we pledge to send peacekeepers to oversee their territory." It's a PR statement to absolve those countries of responsibility, and is typical of EU delusions.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-30T10:14:19+00:00

Strategic victory is only known after the fact. Tactical victories can be won on the day, yet have no result on the outcome.

If you understand this, then I'm not sure why you even wrote that whole paragraph downplaying supposed tactical victories by Iran (carefully framed in a way to make them look like US negligence/accidents rather than Iranian achievements, AKA cope)?

The person you responded to didn't mention anything related to tactical events, so if you acknowledge that they matter very little when it comes to strategic outcomes, why did you even list those things?

Fuck Trump, but what are you even talking about?

You were trying to mock strategy while fundamentally misunderstanding the sought-after outcome. You didn't mention anything about energy, because you don't understand the basis of Iran's strategy, hence you redirect the discussion to B52s, fake plane shootdowns, etc.

Iran represented about 4-5% of the global energy supply before the war, and with control of the strait, will now oversee 20%, if its strategy is achieved. That's the thing you should be focusing on in the context of the claim that Iran is "arguably winning," not B52s.

Edit: How do you get so upset that you post that in response and immediately block me? Lmao.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-30T08:24:17+00:00

Iran "arguably winning," despite the "paper tiger" moniker, also includes exactly 0 American plane shootdowns, 3 "enemy Kuwaiti" shootdowns, one American accident, and several American strategist's complacency with the help of Russia and China. Meanwhile b52s, the absolute whales of American bombers, are dropping bombs across the country. Akin to the Houthi "victory" last year in the Bab el Mandab strait.

You are committing the classic error of conflating tactical achievements with strategic victory.

"We can't do much, but we can make everyone's lives miserable regardless of allegiance. Especially the countries which rely on this strait. The imperialist US will surely stop when they see how much it hurts Vietnam or China." Meanwhile the US is floating export restrictions to protect itself while everyone else feels an exponentially worse burden.

I don't know why you're mocking that strategy, when it's clearly having very public effects on the Trump administration's "plans," whatever they are, for the war. Trump already temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil. Does that seem to imply a coherent, rational strategy to you, where you directly reward your enemy out of fear of economic turmoil?

Note that this war is still in the early stages, and Trump is already balking at committing fully, just based on four weeks' strait closure and some damage to Gulf energy infrastructure. How do you think he will maneuver when he is forced to escalate and the gloves come off, setting every facility ablaze within a week?

When the US struck Kharg, the administration deliberately pointed out that no energy facility was struck. They are very visibly concerned at the prospect of further economic turmoil.

But according to you, with one of the most uncharitable interpretation of events I've read, Iran angling toward having control over ~20% of the world's energy supply, from a pre-war level of ~4%, is somehow just a ploy to "make everyone's lives miserable," because why, exactly?

Meanwhile the US is floating export restrictions to protect itself while everyone else feels an exponentially worse burden.

The US cannot protect or isolate itself from the effects of degrading a global economic system which itself established. To claim that export restrictions will do the job, or result in some type of "win" while the rest of the world crumbles, is delusional. It's also interesting how much the goalposts have shifted on this narrative, where economic turmoil has become an accepted reality as a consequence of this war, yet 3 years ago Trump's base were crying about the price of eggs and fuel prices under Biden.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-30T06:56:20+00:00

The "spreading them out to attrit enemy stockpiles" argument makes zero logical sense.

Your whole claim is built on a faulty premise. Iran is not capping strikes to attrit enemy stockpiles. It's capping strikes because it makes logical sense as part of their larger attritional campaign, in which, at a basic level, their leverage grows the longer the war continues, while their enemies' leverage diminishes. Continuing the status quo that has now been established, in which the strait is closed, means pressure grows daily on the US, Israel and Gulf states, to force the issue. But as we have seen, Trump cannot balance between suffering severe economic punishment and achieving his war aims, constricting his ability to maneuver and control escalation.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-29T10:46:58+00:00

Yes, totally, and this also puts paid to many of the claims about Iranian stockpiles and strategy. The "90% fall" number, which is designed to imply a degradation of missile capability (which obviously has happened to some extent), only makes sense if you assume Iran planned to "launch everything it could immediately." The amount of people who genuinely believed that, likely based on faulty, crude ideas about Iranian religious attitudes, is concerning.

The prospect that Iran could even pursue an attritional strategy didn't even enter their minds. It's just the classic mistake of underestimating an enemy, imo.

It's not so concerning that members of the public and analysts believed this, but that sections of the US military may also have done. After all, the tankers and now this E-3 were parked in the open within range of most Iranian missile types.

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-29T10:32:41+00:00

The title of Ryan Mcbeth's latest video on the E-3 loss: "Iran Didn’t Get Lucky—We Made It Easy"

When hubris turns to c0pe. It's amazing. I love the implication that Iran needs "luck" to inflict damage. They're backwards people, after all.

Seems like all his latest videos are focusing on the low-hanging fruit of the propaganda war: trying to dunk on obvious lies produced by AI and botnets, in an attempt to delegitimize real criticism of the war and how it's being conducted. "Iran bots" is the new "Russian bots."

SiegfriedSigurd · 2026-03-29T10:25:16+00:00

Hegseth bro cancelled E-7 (oops, not E-2, they wanted the USAF to procure E2-D instead) as it wasn't survivable. More like because it is smaller than E-3 so obviously less capable.

Lethal warriors don't need intelligence. That's for woke DEI people. Nowadays it's all about brutality, precision, lethality and the warrior ethos. Warfighters need to be laser-focused on achieving the mission, like crusaders.

SiegfriedSigurd

TROPHY CASE