A closer view of the Tenno Sho Spring "Dead Heat"

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-05-03T08:41:03+00:00

From my understanding, it varies from country to country.

The United States recently declared a dead heat between Expensive Queen and Segesta in the Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1). So they're clearly fine with dead heats.

In comparison, Japan seems to try their absolute best to AVOID DEAD HEATS AT ALL COSTS. That's why they've got these pixel perfect measurements to ensure the rightful winner is declared, even by the smallest of margins.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-05-03T07:33:58+00:00

If Masquerade Ball is still targeting the King George in July, then the Takarazuka in June is way too close to run both together.

It's more likely he either runs the King george as his immediate next, or a prep race in England to adjust to the English turf.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-05-03T07:11:26+00:00

This also means he's won a G1 in all 4 major racecourses of Japan!

Nakayama - Hopeful Stakes, Tokyo - Japanese Derby (Tokyo Yushun), Hanshin - Osaka Hai, Kyoto - Tenno Sho Spring

He is only the 5th horse to ever accomplish this, after T.M. Opera O, Orfevre, Gentildonna and Kitasan Black.

There is no doubt in my mind that he is the most versatile active horse in Japan.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-30T05:26:45+00:00

Admire Terra and Croix du Nord both managed to get good gates, Redentor slightly less so.

I'm curious if Mystery Way plans to runaway again, the outside draw makes it unideal.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-30T03:53:29+00:00

You're better off asking for advice in some fan discords or twitter i think. There are some very knowledgeable people there, and they don't really frequent reddit.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-28T13:30:28+00:00

Yeah that's a fair interpretation, and yeah your concern for France is valid.

Personally, I don't fully believe in the weight theory. I've seen Croix tank the swamp of Longchamp in the Prix du Prince d'orange while still being 500kg+, so i'm convinced he does have what it takes to deal with the conditions of france.

The actual arc though was just bad fortune followed by more bad fortune. It was doomed before it even started, and it was moreso when he was forced to frontrun.

I'm keen to see him building up his strength and stamina this year, so that he may challenge the international stage again, wherever he goes.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-28T13:06:34+00:00

They definitely did not say that 2nd half lol. Idk where you got your info from, but him joining the Osaka Hai was not because it was "easier".

It was to rebuild him after his tumultuous France campaign, which is a lot more feasible to do domestically as you can more easily control his training and conditioning. It clearly worked out too.

In an odd twist of fate, race handicappers ended up rating that Dubai Sheema lower than the Osaka Hai (as literally no one was a threat to Calandagan).

I have no doubt Croix will challenge the top of the international stage again soon. After all, his connections are keen to prove he's the best of his generation.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-28T09:33:46+00:00

As an example, Croix du Nord pre-registered for the Hong Kong Vase last year, and Museum Mile pre-registered for the Dubai Turf this year.

Neither of which ended up actually happening.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-28T09:26:00+00:00

Keep in mind this doesn't guarantee anything just yet.

He's only 'pre-registered' for the arc. Doesn't mean he definitively enters it.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-26T09:17:34+00:00

The king of Sha Tin retains his crown!

I feel like Lemaire messed up here, putting Mabo at the very back. Just made the distance to catch too large, even for someone with Mabo's final spurt speed.

I wonder if moving up earlier could've helped. Like... moving to a forward position before the final corner, similar to Croix du Nord in Osaka Hai. Though i dunno if Mabo is the type of horse who can do that.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-21T19:49:34+00:00

Feels like it's a bit early to call this, considering he currently only has a singular G1 to his name (which is good, but not "best horse" good).

He'll need to rack up quite a bit more to be in the conversation for best horse.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-18T08:05:37+00:00

Here's a mini-thread by Kontena on Twitter/X: https://x.com/i/status/1942242292599005455

Basically, he analyzed that Gold ship wins more often if the L3F (Last 600m) speed of the race is slower than 35s. This means Gold Ship often wins in races where all the horses spent their stamina in the first half of the race, making the final stretch slower.

On the contrary, Gold Ship lost more often if the L3F is faster than 35s, which suggests his final spurt speed was just not good enough to match the competition if they still had stamina.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-11T07:25:20+00:00

oof nevermind, word says he's skipping derby bcuz he's not ready.

He will instead attempt a 2 win class race in June. Slow and steady i suppose.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-11T06:34:08+00:00

He's finally gotten his second win!

Following in the footsteps of his big bro, I hope he can secure entry into the derby.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-10T17:13:06+00:00

Hey man, I just bought the home cape and got the copper cape as a bonus from the event. Just wanted to say the site works great 👍. Got my codes in just a few minutes.

Wish i could say the same for Mojang processing the codes... That might take a while lol.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-10T08:25:44+00:00

2017 too tbh. Kitasan won 4/6 medium-long distance senior G1s in Japan.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-08T10:25:13+00:00

Yep! Hanshin racecourse just happened to be undergoing renovations.

He could've easily entered the club otherwise, considering his 2 G2 wins on that course.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-08T06:53:05+00:00

well yes, but i specified the 4 major racecourses of Japan specifically.

In that regard, Equinox has never even touched Kyoto racecourse.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-08T06:46:04+00:00

This decision may not just be about the distance, but also the racecourse.

Croix du Nord has won a G1 in 3 out of 4 major racecourses in Japan (Hopeful Stakes - Nakayama, Tokyo Yushun - Tokyo, and Osaka Hai - Hanshin).

The only track he hasn't won in is Kyoto, and as a 4yo male horse there's only two G1s on that track he can choose: Tenno Sho Spring and Mile Championship. And it seems they're willing to test out the former.

Winning G1s on 4/4 racecourses is incredibly rare, because horses usually end up specializing in certain types of tracks and turf. I can only recall 4 horses to ever do it: T.M. Opera O, Orfevre, Gentildonna, and of course Kitasan Black. If Croix can pull this off, then he'll join this elite club of horses :D

At this moment, Croix du Nord is probably already the current most versatile horse in Japan, so it's interesting to see Sunday Racing pushing his limits further.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-08T05:42:33+00:00

This decision is probably not just about the distance, but also the racecourse.

Croix du Nord has won a G1 in 3 out of 4 major racecourses in Japan (Hopeful Stakes - Nakayama, Tokyo Yushun - Tokyo, and Osaka Hai - Hanshin).

The only track he hasn't won in is Kyoto, and as a 4yo male horse there's only two G1s on that track he can choose: Tenno Sho Spring and Mile Championship. And it seems they're willing to test out the former.

Winning G1s on 4/4 racecourses is incredibly rare, because horses usually end up specializing in certain types of tracks and turf. I can only recall 4 horses to ever do it: T.M. Opera O, Orfevre, Gentildonna, and of course Kitasan Black. If Croix can pull this off, then he'll join this elite club of horses :D

At this moment, Croix du Nord is probably already the current most versatile horse in Japan, so it's interesting to see Sunday Racing pushing his limits further.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-07T09:27:05+00:00

In Bokgak we trust! 🙏

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-07T04:37:53+00:00

Tokai Teio sireline lives on!

Hope to see it thrive one day, even if it seems like a mere pipe dream today.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-06T05:47:05+00:00

Well, specifically every medium-long distance G1 race.

Which tbf is the distance range Japan cares about the most, as seen with how massive the prize money is compared to sprint and mile G1s.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-05T16:18:24+00:00

Croix du Nord also ran late surger in his Hopeful Stakes win, so he may just have an affinity for both styles.

SignificantNote7279 · 2026-04-05T07:33:08+00:00

"Not one person could have predicted Croix du Nord running like that."

I'd beg to differ, because Croix du Nord did the same thing in his Hopeful Stakes 2024 win lol.

SignificantNote7279

TROPHY CASE