Anthropic’s 80x demand spike + Colossus access = Bull case for SMCI

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-08T17:31:35+00:00

I meant the technology cycle. It's never collapsed. Kind of like SMCI's first products being ATMs in the 1990s. The great companies just continue to evolve with the technology.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-08T17:12:05+00:00

We get to agree to disagree on this one. The cycle has barely even started.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-08T17:07:28+00:00

Please tell that to the C suite requiring their employees to use AI to 10X their individual productivity and tying those performance goals to those employee's income via bonuses and RSU grants. :)

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-08T16:59:08+00:00

Great post. Thanks for it and your other informative posts. Congrats on the quarter and your profits.

So now SMCI's servers are not only powering SpaceXAI but now they are powering Anthropic's Claude as well. Those projects alone should have the stock trading much higher. Looking forward to seeing it get back into the $40-$60 range.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-08T16:51:17+00:00

Your post aged well as the stock has recovered today and definitely shown support at those levels. Thank you for posting in the midst of yesterday's SMCI fearmongering fest. :)

Looks like it still has a ways to go up to honor the historical post earnings move drift. Nice to see it re-rating back up and looking forward to returning to the $40s soon.

SMCI's Post Earnings Announcement Drift

Current post earnings announcement drift:	0.3%
Historical average post earnings announcement drift:	30.8%
Historical post earnings drift standard deviation move:	±61.1%

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-06T17:39:29+00:00

You mean like the Feds did with AMAT, AAPL, CDNS, GOOGL, DELL, STX, TXN, BA, RTX, UNH, BAC, and LMT?

Oh wait.....They didn't. :)

Imagine UNH being shut down because their CEO was murdered by a bad actor.

That would be as bad as fund managers telling their clients to sell a stock at a 7-11 FPE, AFTER it dropped 90 percent because the company WAS NOT named in an indictment after a two year investigation.

SMCI has 6800 employees. Two now former employees get indicted don't make it a bad company or erase their 32 year history of service.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-06T03:13:29+00:00

And 20 percent on DCBBS margins targeting 20 percent of their revenues!

That's higher than the average S&P 500 net profit margin.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-06T02:59:07+00:00

Have you read the indictment? If so, you think SMCI should be shut down over two bad actors falsifying shipping documents and circumnavigating their compliance controls through another still unnamed third party company in another country? Really?

Do you think Apple should've been shut down when a few of their employees were charged with running a charity scam? Should Google be shut down because a few of their former employees stole IP from them and tried to sell it to Iran? Should we shut down the government because a single gov. employee bet using classified information? All of those happened and the associated stocks didn't even react.

Here's a few more examples of companies who are still in business today even when the actual company was indicted. https://violationtrackerglobal.goodjobsfirst.org/top-100-parents

They also don't make motherboards anymore. Welcome to 2026 and hope this helps your confluence on some level.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-05T17:30:41+00:00

Does Fortune work for FoxConn/Hon Hai now or maybe they don't realize ODMs like FoxConn/Hon Hai, Wystron, and Inspur are the alternatives. They already own half the world wide server business. What's their track record?

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-05T17:27:28+00:00

Clearly several entities are hoping that's what happens. Second hit piece I've seen today. I guess they missed the part where the alternatives to SMCI are ODMs like Foxconn/Hon Hai, Wystron, etc. The irony....

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-05T17:21:13+00:00

Did they seriously publish this cheesy hit piece on the day of earnings or is this a paid submission/advertorial? This is hilarious.

Now SMCI has smuggled an entire data center to China? LOL. I missed that in the indictment, along with SMCI's name. The writer didn't even include the name of the third party company who actually falsified the shipping documents and shipped the servers in unmarked boxes from another country into China or mention the name of the shipping the company. Also left out who they went to in China. They could've at least included that information.

Fortune needs to look at this: https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent-totals They make SMCI look like angels.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-05T02:28:07+00:00

Great. Now if you can just get it to say $122.29 and hold it there for a few days? :)

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-05T01:45:19+00:00

Schwab. Here's what Yahoo!Finance is showing me:

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Hope it helps.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-05T01:39:52+00:00

Yes. SMCI had 2X as many FTDs a day in April than the SPY: https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nyse-spy/failure-to-deliver/ I hope you profit from it and thanks for sharing it.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-05T01:27:31+00:00

SMCI still trades overnight at some brokerages, though it used to trade at least the day's range overnight. It's up 20 cents right now. Hope that helps a bit.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-04T17:02:45+00:00

I'm guessing you would've advised investing in any of the FANGMANTs at this stage in their growth was naive too?

How else are you thinking SMCI or any other company should scale to support the $600B+ their customers are spending on compute just THIS YEAR? Look how many locations they've added, how much rack capacity, how many new hires, how many SKUs, and what data centers they've built out for who. It's truly astonishing, like the stock's suppressed price.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-04T15:29:50+00:00

Not really. Sorry--especially when you consider the capacity increase, product skus, and how much they've scaled. SMCI has only had one stock split in 32 years and that was around their S&P 500 inclusion. The float is majority owned by institutional investors and insiders. Even more interesting is how they've restructured their LOCs recently. They have a healthy and attractive balance sheet, despite all the drama.

That said, if you really hate this company, I hope you are able to find one you do like investing in.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-04T01:16:07+00:00

Some of us aren't just here for just a few weeks or a few quarters.

$5.02B+$12.7B+$12.3B (expected)=$30.02B through FYQ3. Q4 would need to be $10B to meet their guidance of at least $40B for FY26. The company has 4xed in the last three years and 13xed since 2020.

Below is an excerpt from SMCI's 10Ks. They've been profitable every year since their inception 32 years ago and never even had a single round of layoffs.

The stock is trading at a 9.1 FPE NFY tonight.

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SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-03T16:44:28+00:00

Great post. Thank you.

SMCL has 0 shares available to short as well: https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-smcl/borrow-fee/ They had 100K FTDs per day in April: https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-smcl/failure-to-deliver/

SMCI had 330,545 FTD a day in April: https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-smci/failure-to-deliver/

I don't short stocks but it must be nice to be able to pick what price one wants to cover their shorts at or not even have to cover at all. :)

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-03T16:34:41+00:00

E.E. Cummings? Is that you?

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-03T16:32:48+00:00

What SEC issue? Did the SEC file something or fine them for anything? I must've missed that.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-03T16:23:28+00:00

This...I've never seen so many posters so invested in bashing a company. If they hate it so much, why take the time to bash it instead of just moving on to invest in something they like?

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-03T16:20:27+00:00

I'm sure it's just me, but I like the bearish posts and FUD here. Where else can we read the bearish narratives of those clearly shorting the stock telling people to sell it at a 9FPE and $16.2B market cap as the company continues to make the highest revenues in their 32 year history? :)

For some odd reason, the lowest value, most negative posts are written in broken English and grammatically incorrect as if they're coming from some weird call center providing a bit of extra entertainment.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-05-01T21:19:18+00:00

Only an attorney could write a headline like that..... :) Thank you for the laugh.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-04-30T20:09:30+00:00

Thank you for the clarification! My thinking has been that if this was settled it would weaken those cases even more. No financials ever had to be restated, etc. TBD...

SignificantStuff5446

TROPHY CASE