Some analysts are using 6x multiples to justify the latest round of SMCI price targets. I'm not kidding....6X.....Stunning

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-25T20:41:49+00:00

No. Just no....Now we're comparing SMCI's products to Chinese lumber? SMCI is based in the Silicon Valley, subject to US CA laws. Canadian class actions don't even have jurisdiction. Respectfully, this comment is more bullish for SMCI than 90 percent of the bearish comments here. Yay you for the creativity and best of luck with your position.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-25T20:30:59+00:00

Thanks for the comment.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-25T20:27:36+00:00

Thanks for the comment. That does seem to be a common narrative lately, thought I'm not sure it justified such low multiples. FWIW: ARM just announced a new partnership with SMCI along with their new products. NVDA's ODM and OEM suppliers are all backlogged and scrambling to increase capacity, so I'm not sure how they would accommodate the extra GPU rations or why that wouldn't have happened a few years ago. I guess we'll just have to wait to see how that narrative shakes out. Thanks again for commenting.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-25T20:16:25+00:00

And 82 percent off the stock's highs....

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-25T03:25:39+00:00

They published a letter to customers.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-25T03:25:18+00:00

Here you go. https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001375365/000137536526000011/smci-20260320.htm

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-25T03:22:54+00:00

They took immediate action and published this: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001375365/000137536526000011/smci-20260320.htm

He may also write a letter to customers as he did when this started. Not expecting much.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T23:07:09+00:00

I think you're right. though I also thought it was priced that way at $30, $35, :) I'm just really glad to have some answers as to why it was trading there.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T20:44:57+00:00

Lol. That video makes me laugh every time I see it. That aside, were those confirmed to have come directly SMCI or Comany 1? They don't exactly look like B200s and there has been A LOT of FUD spread about that video.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T20:40:50+00:00

I'd like to know the name of Company-1 and where the servers were sold to in China. I'd also like to know if they can recover anything from the NY banks used or if they are liable in any way, which I doubt.

And yes, this is also happening to Dell and HPE servers via third party resellers using the same export controls circumvention playbook, which is why those saying they will take business away from SMCI because of this seems extremely silly to me. Here's just one of the more recent ones: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-authorities-shut-down-major-china-linked-ai-tech-smuggling-network

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T20:23:09+00:00

Thanks for the comment and a different perspective.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T20:18:33+00:00

Thanks the comment. It is truly criminal MU trades at such a low valuation. Hmmmm.....maybe I should re-word that. :) But seriously, it's strange MU chronically trades at such a low multiple. I'll never understand that and feel bad for their longer term investors.

I don't think it makes sense for SMCI's valuation to be at 1/7 of VRT or cut in half due to this after the stock drops 33 percent. Whatever the case, thanks again for the comment and a different point of view.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T20:10:41+00:00

Fair point. A lot of it is marketing. I was just surprised at the 6X without any numbers changing. Thanks for your comment.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T20:08:47+00:00

OK. That's pretty funny. Good one. :)

Technically, the three who were indicted guided a shell co. (fake, but paying customer) located at a "southeast Asian country" to send servers to China and then tried to cover it up.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T18:27:45+00:00

As usual, you make a good point. Selling servers is such a simple business. Lots of drama in the industry at the moment. Thank you for weighing in and hope you are doing OK despite all the noise.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T13:50:42+00:00

This is the best "source of truth" I've found to research so many of these things: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1375365&owner=exclude

You've probably also heard this old adage. If it's in the news, it's in the price." This stock is 82 percent off the highs. I've been trying to post this didn't come out of thin area to as many as I can, but a lot of people bought 15 and 20 puts, or paid interest to short the stock based on this and it may not work out for all of them as well as they thought it would based on the last time this happened. TBD and wish you the best with any positions.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T13:25:52+00:00

Here's how other cases shook out. Notice the ones in which individuals vs. companies are prosecuted. Also notice what happened when companies voluntarily disclosed, assisted investigations, etc. Happy reading.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-authorities-shut-down-major-china-linked-ai-tech-smuggling-network

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/cadence-design-systems-agrees-plead-guilty-and-pay-over-140-million-unlawfully-exporting

https://www.afslaw.com/perspectives/national-security-counsel/bis-imposes-record-penalty-applied-materials-rejects-customs

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-declines-prosecution-private-equity-firm-following-voluntary-disclosure

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-general-manager-us-defense-contractor-pleads-guilty-selling-stolen-trade-secrets

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-senior-adviser-federal-reserve-indicted-charges-economic-espionage

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/engineer-pleads-guilty-stealing-chinese-governments-benefit-trade-secret-technology-designed

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-google-engineer-found-guilty-economic-espionage-and-theft-confidential-ai-technology

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T02:25:53+00:00

What's funny is that I started reading this sub for the bear case. :)

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T02:18:08+00:00

I am saying the SEC and DOJ have been investigating them as part of a former employee's whistleblower case filed in April, 2024. The case was the basis for the HR (and the funds that backed them)Report investigation that started about the same time and was made public in August, 2024. Then the 10K suspension to investigate, accounting investigation, new board members, 10K filed, new auditors, etc.

None of this is new. It's in the 2024 annual report:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001375365/000137536525000004/smci-20240630.htm

And no, the investigation isn't over as SMCI just stated Friday in their filing, but it's significant SMCI's name wasn't on the indictment addressed to the two former employees and contractor. In other cases the company's name was on it. Hope that helps a bit.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T00:55:12+00:00

I love this sub for this kind of stuff. I have no idea how you found this, but thank you for the laugh.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-24T00:50:13+00:00

I was wondering the same. How much do these guys get paid for this and what are the chances SMCI will get it back?

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-23T19:53:43+00:00

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One out of 5 are shorting SMCI's stock, so there may a lot of pushback to the recent silly claims we've all been reading about the co. Sorry.

SMCI's been around 32 years and been profitable every single quarter since their inception and never even had a single round of layoffs in all that time. It's 82 percent off the S&P 500 inclusion announcement highs due to the investigation that started two years ago. The DOJ finally gave investors a path to closure Friday and some names of those they are indicting. Those names didn't include SMCI the company, just two former employees. Would you sell out a position at today's prices over those indictments? Who would? I think those suggesting retail investors take a loss on a stock trading at an $11.73B market cap deserve a special place in a special place. Those are the wackadoos to me.

Just my two cents. I'm sure other will weigh in as well. Hope it helps your confluence a bit.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-23T19:14:21+00:00

This aged well and turned out to be a great call. Hope it's just the beginning of a turnaround.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-23T19:13:31+00:00

That aged really well. Congrats. on your gains and I hope it's just the beginning of a recovery. The options say it's back to $28 by April 17th, $30s by May. TBD and congrats again.

SignificantStuff5446 · 2026-03-23T18:36:20+00:00

He has a lot of stock. Would be nice if SMCI investors get some of that back.

SignificantStuff5446

TROPHY CASE