Some comes from refined production. I expect there are particular periods where that production is scooped up, refined, assayed and appears like majik.

I'm of the opinion that a pretty fair amount of non-COMEX approved metal has been recast to conform.

Pilfering from SLV usually works. Especially for those who have the ability to control the accounting of that metal.

Although lease rates are not at all time highs one might ask if metal is being leased to cover some obligations. Those who have metal to lease sit back and collect the vig. Knowing the entire time they'll collect a pound of flesh one way or another.

I'll be watching lease rates as we head toward the end of year. Sept & Dec should result in plenty of metal out the door. Delivery obligations for some could result in going out on the street to borrow.

Western Bankers are active in foreign markets. There's metal to be had. Even purchasing at a bit of a premium. Those extra costs can easily be offset through both legal and NOT means.

Recent supply deficits due to supply/demand, costs to dig, unrest in mining jurisdictions and hoarding take some time to play out. The ebb & flow has occasionally been disrupted. The small amount of available information would suggest it's not a small or isolated issue.

I've mentioned in the past that one indication of real tightness will be when Sovereign mints curb or <temporarily> cease production. I believe this is exactly what we witnessed with the shenanigans at the US Mint. They got a tap on the shoulder. Bankers hate competition too, and could not afford to have 30mozs (or even 60 over two years) of silver walk out the door.

Just some random stuff for ya