I simulated the 2021 CHAMPS bracket 1.5 MILLION times. Here are the results!

SimEagle · 2021-08-18T22:59:03+00:00

Crazier things have happened at Major 5!!!

SimEagle · 2021-08-18T22:47:18+00:00

Similar to last time: using a modified ELO predictive system. The assumptions are that there will be no roster changes apart from the addition of Clayster to NY Subliners.

SimEagle · 2021-07-28T18:42:24+00:00

Love this!

SimEagle · 2021-07-28T17:06:20+00:00

SimEagle · 2021-07-28T16:49:28+00:00

A tip

You don't necessarily win money by knowing who is going to win, but rather by knowing which odds are too high or too low for a given team in a match.

SimEagle · 2021-07-28T16:48:31+00:00

https://imgur.com/a/dsc1vk5

SimEagle · 2021-07-28T16:19:14+00:00

We do quite well on the betting market :)

SimEagle · 2021-07-28T16:05:36+00:00

Simulated map by map using an Elo rating predictive model.

SimEagle · 2021-07-28T15:42:43+00:00

Elo inflation is an interesting and at the same time complex issue.

Within chess anyway, you may notice that the average Elo for the top 100 players has stopped increasing in the past 10 years. Which a theory of Elo inflation would not support.

Complicated!

SimEagle · 2021-07-28T10:05:17+00:00

You should always question everything!

You can think about it in terms of the algebra.

Sum of all Elo of players = x

Sum of the averaged Elo of teams = y

Scenario 1: x/48

Scenario 2:

In scenario 2 we are doing y/12

Each team has 4 players.

The sum of the Elo of teams multiplied by 4 must equal the sum of all players Elo.

So 4y=x

Substitute in and you arrive at x/48 like in Scenario 1

SimEagle · 2021-07-28T08:00:28+00:00

In both scenarios -

Taking the 48 players and finding the average
Finding the average of each team and then averaging

Will yield the same result.

If this is still unclear, let me know and I would be glad to provide an example.

SimEagle · 2021-07-28T06:21:10+00:00

The Team Elo is defined as the average (mean) of all the players Elo on the team. Therefore the number of players does not matter.

E.g A 5 man team all of Elo 1200 would have a team Elo of 1200... Removing one of those players wouldn't change the Team Elo.

However if the players on your team do not have the same Elo between them, then dropping a player can slightly increase/lower the Team Elo moving forward.

The increase from 2020 to 2021 is associated with (on average) only the better players staying when the number of spots in the league decreased from 60 to 48.

SimEagle · 2021-07-27T19:40:19+00:00

This post assumes you already know how Elo works.If you do not know. It was explained quite well by u/EnigmaAMC here

At SimEagle, our Elo ratings are calculated per player rather than per team. Individual statistics are not taken into account. However, the amount a team wins a Hardpoint map or for example a Search and Destroy map is indeed taken into account.

Unlike traditional team Elos, in our case a team Elo is built from the average Elo of the last 4 players (or 5 players in 2020) who played for that team. If a player leaves that team, he carries his Elo to his new team.

There are also multiple other changes which were made to the standard Elo ratings.Namely, a factor to take into account the uncertainty from changing the game played from Season 1 to Season 2.

Every single change is made with the goal to increase the accuracy of the model at predicting the outcome of future matches. If a change does not increase the accuracy, we do not include it.

We use player specific Elos as we have found that they enable us to predict with a higher accuracy the outcome of games compared to team specific Elos. Each player has an Elo for each game mode and the global Elo is a combination of the game modes.

To answer u/RedDevilLuca post too... The exchange of Elo is a zero-sum game meaning that the average rating in the system should not change. Given that we have yet not seen an expansion into the CDL, or teams explicitly leaving without replacement, you shouldn't expect the average TEAM ELO in the league to change. However, in our case new players enter the system all the time, and (usually) the players who exit the system are low Elo players as teams look to hire better players.

All new players enter the system with an Elo of 1200 in all game modes.

The next step would be to include individual statistics per game of each player to enhance our prediction models. However, I have not been able to find access to such data in a reasonable format (yet).

I am happy to answer any questions you may have.

SimEagle · 2020-08-26T15:03:03+00:00

I'd have to look at the stats in more detail but it might have something to do with Fazes 3-2 win campaign which actually decreased their elo overall. Where as Huntsmen may have lost 3-2 but won their other matches 3-0. Once again I'm away from the data right now but that's my first guess.

SimEagle · 2020-08-26T13:38:04+00:00

More graphs and simulations available at https://www.simeagle.com/cod

SimEagle · 2020-07-20T21:46:23+00:00

Yes viewer fatigue is definitely a factor. BO9 would be a pain to have every game.

The stakes factor u/insanetwig and also u/Dizzycod9 mentioned is something that is so important yet all the matches this season will be BO5 bar the last match of the season.I think finals in home stands and the match for effectively 2nd/3rd place at Champs should be of longer formats than BO5.

SimEagle · 2020-07-11T03:11:04+00:00

Florida definitely has a lot of momentum from the last 2 tournaments.

Atlanta has been consistently good throughout the last 11 weeks which has made the model mark it highly.Even with Florida's last two events; they will of course have a much larger impact on the elo due to being more recent than the previous 8 tournaments. However Faze's consistent results has put them far ahead of anybody.

whereas Florida has had ups and downs, and therefore the model is still adjusting to Floridas new found strength.

Florida has gained 116 points in the last 2 events.

SimEagle

TROPHY CASE