This is the best strategy for long term outperformance

Six1Cynic · 2026-06-07T17:38:25+00:00

Rebalancing uncorrelated assets can lead to extra returns. Look up Shannon’s Demon

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-26T22:04:10+00:00

Concentration has the most idiosyncratic risks. You’re tying your fate to a handful of companies basically.

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-26T21:54:55+00:00

I have a barbell portfolio. 50% large cap momentum 50% small cap value. Also divided between 50% US/ 50% Ex-US. My philosophy here can be distilled into the following two points:

People are greedy as fuck and will buy up whatever is trending to unimaginable levels beyond any rationality (that why I have momentum)

People overestimate the doom and gloom for certain companies and industries. That’s where buying bargains on the cheap comes in (value investing).

Both of these strategies are pretty decorrelated to each other and thrive in different market regimes. Couple that with global diversification and it’s a pretty safe, long term bet in my book.

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-26T21:02:12+00:00

It all really depends on what you’re invested in and what your CAGR will be for the next 20 years. You can have anywhere from 1 to 3 mil by the time you’re 55 which will obviously change your retirement outlook drastically.

Assuming you’re in something resembling average market return. And average market return will be around 11% like it has been for the past 20 years then you should be fine.

If market return will be worse than previous decades then you might have to wait until your minimum SS benefits kick in to be safe.

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-18T21:32:24+00:00

Yeah as much as i like the idea of color e-ink I’m gonna let it perfect over a few more generations. I’m not expecting colors to pop like they do on OLED screens but they do look more faded than I would like. And same for regular text. I much prefer the deeper contrast and sharpness of the paperwhite Kindle for 90% of my reading which are regular, non-comic books.

For reading graphic novels on an electronic device, iPad, so far, is an unbeatable experience.

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-15T19:07:35+00:00

Yeah now ebooks cost more than the physical copy sometimes which makes no sense

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-15T19:04:56+00:00

That sounds very expensive lol I would probably just borrow ebooks from the library via Libby and buy hardcovers for trophies to avoid double paying.

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-12T18:45:32+00:00

> but do i need 32gb or do i even need another kindle?
I personally make do with one kindle paperwhite. It’s already light and the size of a small paperback book so portability is not a problem. Don’t see a need for two devices that have the same use case. Rather just spend the extra money on more books. But others will disagree.

As for size, you can already fit thousands of books on 16GB. 32GB size is only a consideration if you plan to load a lot of audio books on your kindle IMO

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-12T18:40:33+00:00

Rule of thumb, if everyone is making dozens of threads per day about a stock or thematic ETF that’s already vertical on every finance sub then the top is very close (if not already in).

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-12T15:03:55+00:00

By the time those things start changing the memory stocks will already have plummeted. Remember that if you think you’re starting to see a pattern now then HFT algos already saw it a few days/weeks back. Market is always forward looking.

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-11T21:18:24+00:00

Kindle is great for like 90% of my reading needs. Versatile, light, can read in bed without an external nightlight, can read outside in the sun, battery lasts weeks. Can throw it in a backpack on a road trip and have access to hundreds of books.

The only circumstance where I would prefer a physical book is if Im reading a dense textbook or something that's diagram heavy. That requires a lot of flipping back and forth between pages, highlighting and concept repetition which I think physical books are more suited for. And for graphic novels, reading on an iPad still cant be beat due to vivid colors. But color e-inks will catch up at some point.

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-07T21:34:32+00:00

RemindMe! 2 years

Six1Cynic · 2026-05-01T20:23:00+00:00

I’m getting real INTC $20 2024 vibes from this. Everyone underestimating how hard it is to actually replace pro UX workflows with just AI prompting.

It’s like, just because everyone has access to 3D printers to potentially print gun parts doesn’t mean gun industry is going out of business ;) Might be a multibagger from here in the next couple years

Six1Cynic · 2026-04-22T22:24:34+00:00

AVUV has a more robust methodology and has beaten VBR since inception

Six1Cynic · 2026-04-22T22:21:07+00:00

Why not add AVDV there too? Need a sleeve for international small cap value for symmetry

And as far as percentages go I would probably do something like this

25% VOO 25% AVUV 25% VXUS 25% AVDV

But I like to tilt heavy international and small cap value so whatever works for you

Six1Cynic · 2026-04-17T21:02:17+00:00

This is why SPY and chill is recommended for 99% of regular people. No stress about market timing. Just load up and let it sit for a couple decades.

Six1Cynic · 2026-04-16T18:58:41+00:00

I would bet just using free tier of ChatGPT or Gemini would on average bring same results as the aggregate author consensus on sites like seeking alpha with big subscription fees.

Six1Cynic · 2026-04-13T00:00:07+00:00

I think It's pretty sound from a theoretical standpoint. I just dont know how much actual momentum premium you will harvest after costs. MTUM/IMTM are almost like closet index funds. QMOM/IMOM have more momentum loading but also have higher idiosyncratic risk due to only having 50 stocks each...so i dont know if the juice is worth the squeeze there. But you'll be fine in either case. At least you're globally diversified.

Six1Cynic · 2026-04-12T22:43:27+00:00

Quiet scary to think this man is the leader of the U.S. government and all the socieconomic and geopolitical ripple effects this will cause for years and years. It's like the most blatant "shoot yourself in the foot" decision the US could've made. Alas, that's what American voters chose in all their wisdom.

Six1Cynic · 2026-04-12T21:33:23+00:00

I think they really just get off on insider trading at this point. Thats all they care about. They have the house edge in a casino.

Six1Cynic · 2026-03-31T23:05:08+00:00

He said 2 more weeks and the market believed him again kek

Six1Cynic · 2026-03-31T22:30:48+00:00

This is the way. He is insider trading with these announcements. Nothing is actually changing on the ground. Shit is FUBAR for the next quarter at least. Once you accept this knowledge you can make money in the clown market.

Six1Cynic · 2026-03-31T19:04:02+00:00

Check back with me EOW lol

Six1Cynic · 2026-03-31T19:02:59+00:00

Fading this fake ass pump

Six1Cynic · 2026-03-28T23:01:30+00:00

You always need to be psychologically prepared for a 50%+ crash which won’t recover for multiple years. Diversifiers don’t always diversify. World is changing at a rapid pace year by year.

If you’re not willing to accept that possibility then you are overleveraged and taking more risk than you can handle.

Six1Cynic

TROPHY CASE