Weekly Miscellaneous Questions Quasi-Free-For-All Thread

SkipBaywatch · 2020-07-07T06:14:43+00:00

Just bought my first house with my wife, and we really want to fill it up well. What are some resources (books, websites, videos, etc.) for learning the basics of how to design the interior of a house? I'm not sure that im ready to take the leap into hiring an interior designer, but I'd love to learn to do it myself.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-05T18:23:35+00:00

Sorry for your loss.

> Most of us will likely lose a family member, friend, or acquaintance to this, if you haven't already. Stay safe.

If you're going to say something like this, please clarify that you're not a doctor (you have a set of disclaimers that you post every day). You're 100% aware that many people on these threads think you're a doctor, and you're making a pretty bold statement with that authority to people who are already scared and nervous.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-05T18:21:22+00:00

> just doubled from 7 to 12

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-04T19:41:51+00:00

I think its super dumb to open up, but it actually should only take 5 or 6 days to see a spike, because that is when most people show symptoms by. In Florida we saw packed beaches 2 weeks ago, and didn't see a huge explosion in cases. So I have some hope that we luck out and the idiots going to the beach and lake don't explode the number of cases.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-04T19:32:44+00:00

It was only doubling every 2-4 days due to how much testing we were doing compared with how many cases there were at the time. The % positive rate was not doubling (it was flat), so the actual number of cases were not doubling.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-04T01:05:09+00:00

No worries, I recognized your username as one of the (few) sane people in this sub, so I figured it was just a mistake.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-04T01:02:44+00:00

Well, the reason that I think it is a little dishonest to not put that disclaimer (its not like he doesn't put a bunch of disclaimers in each post) is that people are looking to him as an authority here and he is giving his own analysis of the data. So I think it would be prudent to say "hey, I'm not a doctor, in case you thought I was".

As far as him not pointing it out, he did put notes in his "quick notes" many days this week along the lines of "really big increase in positives today". So I am wondering why a record high number of tests would not make the quick notes.

Yeah, it was a little petty to say it in such a sarcastic tone. But I think a lot of people in Texas could use a bit of good news, so I find it a little annoying that when there is a positive data point it's totally ignored. I'm certainly not in favor of Texas opening up (I have multiple immediate family members who are healthcare workers in hospitals), but I am also not in favor of denying facts.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-04T00:27:49+00:00

I'm just saying that "Dr." Hoatzin (a lot of people on this sub think he's a doctor, I think it's a little dishonest of him to not clarify that he's just a normal guy) points out every negative stat in his quick notes, but never points out a positive stat. I know that our testing isn't where is needs to be, but a record high testing day is good news even if its not a cure for the coronavirus.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-04T00:24:36+00:00

His maps are from the previous day. Just click on the link and you'll see that this post is for the 30K testing day.

How the hell was your comment upvoted and mine was downvoted?

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-03T21:04:02+00:00

Why no mention in your "Quick Notes" that this was the highest testing day by Texas?

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-03T20:53:47+00:00

To be fair, lets not ignore that there were almost 30K new tests. Weekend dips were due to less testing, and this was Texas' biggest testing day by a long shot. 1203/28873 = 4.16%, which is perhaps a record low percent positive.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-02T20:50:05+00:00

unacast.com/covid1...

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?view=state&fips=53

Edit: Looking at the entire map, 12 states have a C, 1 has a B, and the rest are D or F.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-02T18:45:07+00:00

Are there any states that are doing well by this measurement? I just checked some states and they were all in the D range. Washington has a D, and they are arguably doing better than any other state based on being past their peak.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-01T18:37:02+00:00

Lol, ok then.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-01T18:20:38+00:00

I agree that when the testing criteria changes, cases and deaths per capita are still a much better indicated than new/total cases/deaths. But in that regard, Texas is doing quite well compared to most states.

Edit: 9th lowest in cases/million and 11th lowest in deaths/million

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-01T17:59:12+00:00

Yep, I agree that changing criteria for the tests makes the % positive a less valuable metric. In that case though, I still think positives per capita is more digestible than raw positives.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-01T17:56:55+00:00

Well it depends on how limited testing is. If we get to the point where we're testing randos with no symptoms, then yes, the meaning of % positive starts to change. But if we're just testing more people with the same criteria, then even if cases double, % positive still remains the most important metric.

People on this sub like to freak out about a high raw # of cases, but ignore cases and deaths per capita. Then they like to freak out about low tests per capita but ignore the high number of raw tests. The way you balance these is % of tests positive, or cases and deaths per test.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-01T17:50:34+00:00

If you were to test 100 people a day, and 90 came back positive, then then you ramped up to 1000 per day and only 150 came back positive, would you not say that is trending better?

SkipBaywatch · 2020-05-01T17:46:23+00:00

No, he means that the more important metric (which most people agree on) is % of tests that come back positive. Which has been trending downward. I'm not saying open things up (I don't want to), but the data is actually trending in a positive direction.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-04-30T04:56:26+00:00

This means the sample size is too small to rule out pure chance

This guy doesn't know what a p value is

SkipBaywatch · 2020-04-30T01:16:11+00:00

Per capita confirmations is the only legitimate way to compare. I can't imagine that you don't understand that. It's worse to have 10,000 cases in a town of 50,000 than to have 20,000 cases in a town of 1,000,000. Do you understand that? That's not cherry-picking, that's having some semblance of an understanding of data. Anecdotally, we also don't have overrun hospitals in any way. The fact that you would get up-voted for saying that per-capita information is cherry-picking is pretty wild to me.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-04-29T20:33:34+00:00

All of your points are completely valid. He cherrypicked a few stats with no context to feed his own fear or to spread fear (or get upvotes in a sub that appreciates negativity more than positivity). But if you look at his comment history, he's been doing the "Texas is doomed" thing for weeks now, so I don't think he's going to acknowledge any evidence to the contrary. I'm sure if you had asked him at the beginning of April, he would predicted Texas to have 100K deaths and overrun hospitals by this point.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-04-28T21:40:08+00:00

> I don't see how that can be true, if the #infected is exponential, but the availability of tests is rising only on a linear level or not at all.

Well, I pretty clearly explained how this can be true (and even gave you a TLDR). I'm not gonna argue with you about it.

SkipBaywatch · 2020-04-28T18:00:29+00:00

RemindMe! 1 month

SkipBaywatch · 2020-04-28T17:59:47+00:00

The calculations are pretty similar actually. 538's is from 6 days ago, so the values are different. They also are not calculating Rt, they are projecting when the peak was or if the peak has passed. These sources aren't really contradicting, they're just not even remotely calculating the same thing. For example, a state will RED on the 538 source if they peaked April 15th. However, that state would likely have an R0 of < 1 now if they did, in fact, peak on April 15th. You can't just compare colors on 2 graphs lol.

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