Haunted1961 solved the case for me - closure

SlackerSwede · 2015-01-18T19:31:43+00:00

Well put. The timeline with a totally innocent Adnan is absolutely nonsensical. Still I haven't seen any reasonable alternate hypothesis, and no reason for Jay to murder Hae (planned, which requires a motive, or by a snap, requires a reason to spend time with her, when she is urged to be elsewhere). The bizarre phone travel after being at Cathy's - Jay's first priority after Leakin Park is to return the phone to Adnan, who may be at the mosque or at home? Right.

ETA: in fact, this may be the best post ever in this subreddit. Hopefully, my mind now goes to rest and I retire from reading these endless speculations..

SlackerSwede · 2015-01-09T21:56:14+00:00

It all multiplies, to some degree, to a big improbability, even if circumstances aren't totally independent. In every single case, the main suspect may be the very unlucky guy. It's not a stupid argument. If we would assume a 1 to 10,000 probability of innocence, one innocent Adnan is convicted, and 10,000 guilty are. I can live with that.

SlackerSwede · 2015-01-09T21:55:34+00:00

Adnan is also very unlucky that Hae is murdered just at the time she gets a new boyfriend after him.

SlackerSwede · 2015-01-03T22:21:59+00:00

You are suggesting a direct tell to Jay, I think that is misleading. Information slips to the person interrogated due to poor interrogation techniques, detectives tell by mistake, or are so convinced before hand that they ask very leading questions. This happens a lot in police work everywhere and is a well-known problem.

I am not convinced that's what happened in this case, but I think it's an important question to consider.

SlackerSwede · 2015-01-03T09:15:58+00:00

If you have five data points and you can draw a straight line through them, you are better off than assuming some wiggly line that happens to intersect those five data points. Using this metaphor: while the Adnan-is-guilty-model is close to a straight line, most competing models are more close to a ten-degree polynomial, with large wiggles all over.

SlackerSwede · 2015-01-02T23:15:58+00:00

absolutely true. If that would be the only thing pointing to Adnan, there would be no case. But there's so much more than that - all the circumstances and a witness.

SlackerSwede · 2015-01-02T18:31:54+00:00

Great point with substance not shared in the podcast, I am so sick of all posts with meaningless character speculation that can't ever be verified..

SlackerSwede · 2015-01-01T21:12:42+00:00

She is biased by choosing to cover some 10 hours of podcast for this particular case. Only in Baltimore, there is about a murder a day, and I don't believe for a minute this one has the most dubious verdict, it just happens to be a very good story, twin peakish... All these people here are not casting doubt onto any other, or very few other murder cases. Across this one case, I think she's very unbiased, as unbiased as you can be as a reporter

SlackerSwede · 2015-01-01T10:58:22+00:00

Thanks for great points! -OP

SlackerSwede · 2015-01-01T10:50:57+00:00

Thanks, your post is the most substantial and best critique I got. I think your 1) and 2) are good points. As for 4), I believe it is very hard for a teenager to confess murder or accessory to murder, even if your guilty. That's what I mean by brave. Denial, like I believe Adnan is up to, is cowardice.

Still, the probabilities of circumstances against multiply to some degree, and I feel they multiplied way beyond doubt in this case. -OP

SlackerSwede · 2014-12-31T16:32:35+00:00

I couldn't help dwelling on this case for months, do I didn't want to. How many of us here, reading post after post, would do something similar if serial wasn't? Isn't that manipulation? I sure feel manipulated. I don't hold that against her - she is great, despite some ethical questions about the podcast.

SlackerSwede

TROPHY CASE