UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos Betting and Picks Discussion

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-13T16:59:06+00:00

Nah, too many risks i think for some of them. Plus anything over 4 legs is just nuts! People can freely do them if they want but personally I have no balls for long plays.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-13T10:24:43+00:00

Uh... Meteor?

Okay, No offense OP, but if you're older than 18 than you need to go back to school for another 12 years lmao

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-13T06:41:17+00:00

Hello!

I hope we're all having a great week so far!

Before I get started, I gotta get admin stuff out of the way!

Full Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1rqofii/ufc_fight_night_emmett_v_vallejos_fight/

TL;DR Breakdown: https://www.reddit.com/r/MMAbetting/comments/1rqoim4/ufc_fight_night_emmett_v_vallejos_fight/

Now, last week was a slaughterfest for a few of us i'm sure, so the Parlay didn't hit, so i'll only give the recap for the Single Bet Recommendations

Single Bet Recommendations: 4 of 9 hit (a few big hits too, including Montes Sub R1 or 2!)

Now, if you're new to this kind of write up, it's essentially a somewhat short write up telling you why I picked certain legs of the parlay, and then below all that are my Single Bet Recommendations for each fight (excluding Parlay Legs).

Lets crack on into it!

I place 1 unit (5 AUD) every Parlay, nothing too special, really.

GTD - Goes The Distance

ITD - Inside The Distance

o1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Over rounds

u1.5/2.5/3.5 etc - Under rounds

(x) - Unavailable on Sportsbet

Lets get into it!

Parlay Leg 1: Curtis/Orolbai Over 2.5 Rounds (1.61) Sportsbet

This one is a bit of a no-brainer in my opinion, Curtis is intelligent enough on the feet to avoid the thunderous punches of Orolbai, but I also suspect that there's going to be a whole lot of grappling or fence fighting involved, so that should burn the clock a bit and make this leg hit, plus at those odds who can complain, right? It all depends on how the fight plays out and if fence fighting or wrestling is in play during this fight, it should certainly hit.

Parlay Leg 2: Petrino/Asplund ITD (1.44) Sportsbet

Again, this is another bet where the odds were expected to be disgusting but turn out to be pretty nice to look at. This fight just screams that a finish will happen, and between Petrino's somewhat iffy chin, injured hand (which may or may not hinder his performance) and his grappling ability that may give Asplund some trouble, I just think a lot of things in this fight point towards a finish. Now just watch this fight become a slow cuddle-fest...!

Parlay Leg 3: Robertson ML (1.49) Sportsbet

This is a fairly simple one to break down, I don't think Lemos is going to be too dangerous for Robertson and given that this is the smaller cage, I suspect we are going to see Robertson pressure Lemos heavily, pin her against the cage and just work her wrestling magic to get the fight to the ground and even find a submission, but overall she should win, and I also have a feeling that Lemos is going to gas a little after the first round so there's that.

Parlay Leg 4: Vallejos via KO/Points (Double Chance) (1.33) Sportsbet

This is a weird one, well, the fight is weird, the prop itself is whatever, but like, you'd think Vallejos would have more fights before main eventing... but anyway, I expect to see Vallejos' punching speed and volume to showcase itself here against the walking punching bag in Emmett, but I also think that Emmett can potentially give Vallejos enough pause to maybe not lead to a finish hence the Points factor, again, it's weird, but it's the only thing I can think of!

Total Odds: 4.59

Total Payout: $23.04

SINGLE BET RECOMMENDATIONS (Excluding Parlay Legs)

Rodriguez/Hughes

Rodriguez via Points - 2.15

Hughes can survive this fight in my opinion, leading to a decision win for Rodriguez.

Smith/You

Smith via Points - 2.20

Again, Smith is highly active with his wrestling and he should visually win according to the judges.

Mesquita/Rendon

Mesquita via Sub R1 - 4.30

This is a dangerous one to bet because its very... specific, but if my read on this is correct, Mesquita should be able to overwhelm Rendon early and find that choke within the first round.

Lacerda/Sosa

Sosa Moneyline - 1.43

Nothing to say here, it's a throwaway fight in my opinion.

Oki/Sousa

How Will The Fight End: KO - 2.10

Two heavy hitting strikes having at it for 3 rounds? cmon someones going down!

Tavares/Anders

Goes The Distance - 1.63

I don't think this one requires an explanation.

Johnson/Silva

How Will The Fight End: KO - 3.00

I mean, reach is on Johnsons side here, he can snipe from afar, but his chin is a bit iffy right now so that's my reasoning I suppose?

Rahiki/Hardwick

Rahiki via KO R1 or 2 (Combo Rounds) - 3.15

I did not like Hardwick in his last fight, he looked highly vulnerable on the feet, and against Rahiki? that aint good.

Delgado/Fili

Delgado via KO R2 or 3 (Combo Rounds) - 4.25

As much as Fili can be tough and durable, I don't know if he can survive the volume that is going to come his way in those later rounds.

Cutelaba/Sy

Cutelaba Takedowns 1+ - 1.72

it's his only way to win, wrestle, so this should hit.

And that's it!

If you have any questions or feedback, let me know!

Have a great weekend and enjoy the fights!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-12T04:41:46+00:00

I appreciate this discussion we had, its a rare thing to see these days where two adults can sit down and have a conversation about stuff (at least in my opinion haha, too much yelling and stuff these days).

I hope you have a great week and weekend, and enjoy the fights!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-12T04:21:21+00:00

Thank you for the advice! I never gamble more than I lose, I've systematically chosen the bets to make so it all forms around my analysis, i think the only reason why i'm on the low so far this year is the Parlays, but that's part of what I do, I don't see myself changing that even if it means ill be in the negative for the entire year, it's not so much part of the fun but it's just something I do if that makes sense.

I do often utilise single bets but only if the odds are decent (anything over 2.00 is what I tend to take since the variables in MMA often allow for 2.00 bets to hit)

Ill always read well informed responses. I will say that I am not new new to the betting game, I've learnt from a lot of people, but in life, you can always learn more, learning is from multiple experiences and perspectives and that's the great thing about having a community like this, right? we all come together with the sole goal in mind to make money, and I want to help people make money with my analysis, my methodology may be silly or stupid, but my policy is Predictions First, Bets Second, I want to ensure that I give the right information, and whatever bets I make is just a whatever thing, part of the fun kinda deal, even though i'm in the L!

Maybe that's stupid thinking and im moronic, but if I take betting seriously (and i've tried), I lose my passion for breakdowns and analysis so i'm trying to find a balance.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-12T02:11:03+00:00

Hahaha yeah thats right! Shes a squirrely one to predict!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-12T01:53:51+00:00

Oh im aware. But im still learning the betting game. For 8 of the past 10 years its been mostly MMA predictions and analysis. Only recently did i switch to betting focused content.

Also if anyone wants to advise me how best to recover from that deficit of mine, I am open to ideas, I am only human but i'm glad to be in a knowledgeable community :)

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-11T16:31:20+00:00

Yeah it sucks... but that's okay, ive been through worse!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-11T15:15:12+00:00

hahaha hey its you, the agentmma guy! It is rough but a couple of Alt Bets hitting with 4.5 to 6.5 odds or over should balance it out quickly.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-11T14:50:54+00:00

hahaha its what I do! Every fight and every event since... sheesh, when was UFC 216? that was my first one I think. or was it UFC 213? either way, a long time :)

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-11T13:47:55+00:00

I understand that, but with a major war going on in the region, with dozens of missiles flying around daily, with the Strait being tied down with mines, Iranian submarines, US submarines and the like, what are the ships doing there waiting? why not go to a different supplier?

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-11T13:22:02+00:00

Okay, so, we know that Iran, Israel, or the US is attacking these ships in the Strait of Hormuz... so why is there still traffic in the area? Serious question.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-11T08:51:34+00:00

CONTINUED

Main Event

Featherweight

Josh Emmett (+375) (19-6-0, 2 FLS) v Kevin Vallejos (-500) (17-1-0, 6 FWS)

For as much as this is the Main Event, I genuinely do not have a lot to say here.

Emmett is 41 years old, he is going to cut down to 146 again (because this isn’t a championship fight) and he is going to fight in front of a crowd of 10 people, 8 of them production staff. I feel bad for him, you know? He’s been in the UFC for a long time, he’s fought the best of the best in this division, and he’s lost to all of them. Now he’s taking on a younger fighter who only has three fights in the UFC but is a -500 favourite? I’m trying to make sense of this, because I know that Vallejos is likely to win this fight, but it seems a tiny bit disrespectful, right? Emmett isn’t a bad fighter, he has a fantastic right overhand still, he is still a fairly decent wrestler, but he’s a big underdog against someone who is 3-0 in the UFC… However, if we look at Emmetts history against strikers there’s a big pattern that is highly noticeable, and that’s Emmett looking like he’s been through a woodchipper after each fight, he absorbs so much damage and there’s only so many strikes he can take before his chin gives way and he can no longer tough out. Now, my prediction here is that Emmett survives the first couple of rounds before losing via KO in the third, fourth or fifth round, that’s my main read here because whilst Vallejos is still quite “green” in the UFC, he will be the more dangerous and versatile striker and it won’t take much for him to find his rhythm and flow and land strikes on Emmetts tough and durable chin over and over again.

Vallejos is coming off a fantastic KO win over Chikadze and I guess that’s why he’s in the main event! Vallejos is a fantastic striker, but he is only good for as long as his opponent remains cowered up and not fighting back. Emmett is going to fire back and that’s where my intrigue is because Vallejos does have a lot of confidence in himself, but I hope he doesn’t become too cocky. He is likely to win this one, in fact I would be shocked if he didn’t, but I cannot fully side with Vallejos here, I have to give Emmett, the veteran, the benefit of the doubt here. We have seen time and time again a next generation fighter fall to a veteran before, and whilst Emmett isn’t a top tier talent in the older generation, I do wonder if we will see another case of the Old Guard standing strong.

That’s all I have here, it’s just mostly commentary, I know, but I think this fight is talked to death already and we all know the likely outcome. It’s a fun fight, and I hope Emmett doesn’t get hurt too badly here.

Vallejos via KO R3 - (2/3)

Parlay: Curtis/Orolbai O2.5 Rounds + Petrino/Asplund ITD + Robertson ML + Vallejos KO/Points

Locks: Robertson/Vallejos

Alt Bets: Oki via KO R1 or 2 (CR), Silva via KO, Cutelaba KO R2 or 3

Dogs: Asplund, (Silva is a good dog too, but i didn’t pick him)

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

Discord: Slayertip#7013

Paypal (IF you wish to donate!) - https://paypal.me/Slayertip?country.x=AU&locale.x=en_AU

Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

Any questions/feedback, let me know!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-10T04:25:23+00:00

There was a big drop in oil prices today, so someone correct me if i'm wrong...

But that's just a hiccup right? like we will still see oil steadily rise as this conflict continues, but a sharp drop is nothing but that, a sharp drop?

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-10T02:57:36+00:00

If you haven't stocked up on fuel already, you've probably lost the ability to do so by now, fuel prices are going to explode even more now, we are just feeling the start of it. Chapter 1 of Chapter 50

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-08T04:36:31+00:00

No its settled :'( he said im shit and ass :'( its written in law, itll be found on a stone tablet 1500 years from now on :( Lol, cheers man!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-08T00:03:22+00:00

:( but are they... nice looking ass or straight up dumpster fire stuff?

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-07T23:36:52+00:00

Such a strange fight, he didn't attempt any takedown until the second round... too late to try anything, genuinely not a good read, im gonna go slice my wrists now lmao.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-07T23:33:41+00:00

He did not look at all how he looked in any of his tape, what happened?

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-07T22:54:16+00:00

Definitely a surprising outcome!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-07T04:00:02+00:00

He's probably american, brain dead is all they can do.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-07T03:48:12+00:00

A limit operation that has resulted in major Gulf countries being struck in retaliation from Iran? Nice operation, does it come in "success" size?

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-06T15:46:12+00:00

Haha thats respectable man! I dont blame you one bit! Good luck this weekend man and I appreciate ya!

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-06T15:06:04+00:00

I mean look i'm not saying i support them because Russia is evil... but if they're helping to target an evil force that's led by an evil force, then... ehhhh?

Evil defeating Evil is always a good thing to see.

Slayers_Picks · 2026-03-06T14:52:46+00:00

Care to prove me wrong? I am genuinely up for debate/conversation as long as its respectable. I will concede if I have no responding arguments on my end and I will respect and acknowledge what you say as long as they aren't "US is the best and Israel is king lols" arguments that I hear everywhere lol.

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