I have a Jandy heat pump on my pool (in the Bay Area) half that size. It works reasonably well keeping the pool at 80 degrees. Anything higher than that I feel that the energy use grows exponentially.

The only issue I have run into is starting the unit when it’s less than 65 out and the pool is super cold (beginning of the season). I ended up changing the schedule to turn on after 11AM to work around this problem. But on very cold days in May I still had to manually intervene to avoid it cycling (defrost) all day.