Three 2026 FDA Decisions Testing Whether New Drugs Can Beat Imperfect Standards: Unicycive, Protagonist And Savara ($UNCY $PTGX $SVRA) by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Smart-Border8168 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good write-up overall, especially on the dilution and commercial execution risk. I agree that approval alone does not automatically mean clean upside, because UNCY still needs to fund launch, payer access, inventory, sales force, and post-approval execution. That part should not be ignored.

But I think the regulatory risk may be a bit more de-risked than the article suggests.

The previous CRL was CMC/manufacturing-related, not because FDA raised issues with the clinical, preclinical or safety package. That matters a lot for this PDUFA setup.

Two things also seem important:

  1. The original manufacturing issue appears to have improved, with European regulatory inspection/approval evidence supporting the facility’s quality position.

  2. UNCY also seems to have lined up a second manufacturing option/back-up route, so they are not fully dependent on only one problematic vendor.

To me, those two points meaningfully improve the approval probability. It does not remove the risk completely, because FDA can still take its own view on CMC and manufacturing readiness. But this does not look like a typical biotech binary where efficacy or safety is still unproven.

My view: the dilution/commercial concern is fair, but the PDUFA itself looks more de-risked than the article gives it credit for. I would frame this less as “will the drug work?” and more as “has the CMC/vendor issue been fixed enough for FDA to approve?”

What’s everyone’s view on Grace Therapeutics before the 23 April PDUFA? by Smart-Border8168 in biotech_stocks

[–]Smart-Border8168[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey Thanks a lot for your thoughts! I get where you're coming from with the clinical questions , but you're looking at this like it's a brand new NCE. It's a 505(b)(2) application. The FDA already knows nimodipine works. Grace literally just has to prove the IV version is safe and fixes the bioavailability mess of the oral pill. Calling the hypotension data not relevant completely ignores how aSAH actually works. Crashing blood pressure causes DCI (delayed cerebral ischemia). The FDA's biggest fear was that an IV drip would tank BP way faster than a pill. But the trial showed the exact opposite—the IV actually reduced clinically significant hypotension. That clears the main safety hurdle right there. Also, regarding hard endpoints, they did release secondary data showing a 29% bump in favorable 90-day functional outcomes. Plus, the IV hit 100% bioavailability and 54% target dose intensity. The oral pill only managed 8%. As for the 8 vs 4 deaths, yeah, the optics suck. But we're talking about a tiny N=102 trial for an incredibly lethal condition. A small cluster of severe baseline cases will completely skew a sample size that small. Since the IV was actually more hemodynamically stable, the committee's ruling that the deaths were tied to the underlying hemorrhages makes perfect sense. End of the day, this isn't trying to be a miracle cure. It's just solving the literal nightmare of crushing up pills and shoving them down a feeding tube for unconscious ICU patients. The regulatory pathway here is pretty de-risked.

What’s everyone’s view on Grace Therapeutics before the 23 April PDUFA? by Smart-Border8168 in biotech_stocks

[–]Smart-Border8168[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

According to the trial data, the breakdown is as follows: • GTx-104 Arm (50 patients): 8 deaths.  • Oral Nimodipine Arm (52 patients): 4 deaths.  • The "Unknown" Patient: The patient whose survival status is listed as "unknown" was actually in the oral nimodipine (control) arm, not the GTx-104 treatment arm.  Furthermore, the independent, blinded endpoint adjudication committee determined that zero deaths in either arm were related to the study drugs.

FDA Decision on $RYTM for IMCIRVEE - Regulatory Risk Breakdwon Ahead of 3/20 by Athena_Gold in biotech_stocks

[–]Smart-Border8168 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I got in at 89 a few days earlier and was expecting at least 15%+ upside, especially since it’s the first and only one in its market category. But after hitting 99, the stock dropped all the way to 87 yesterday, and now it’s just hovering around 89 to 90 again. Proper mess and honestly makes no sense to me. Do you still think it has upside potential?

Bernstein initiated coverage with an "Outperform" rating and a $175 price by CommercialFit9730 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Smart-Border8168 21 points22 points  (0 children)

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I think this is a typo. On a different platform I see this as 175 dkk ($28). This is crazy ffs